Texas Summer 2022

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#841 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:12 pm

With today and tomorrow left for July below is the monthly average standings. Many of these locations also experienced their warmest May and June on record. If you account beyond the typical JJA meteorological season, most of these sites will have experienced once August is complete the warmest May-June-July-???? period. Which means one of the longest, hottest if not the most, start to any summer as a whole while the ending is tbd.

These are sites that will likely set the new July record warmest.
Houston (IAH) 88.1F (record 87.5F)
Galveston 88.5F (record 87.4F)
College Station 90.9F (record 89.1F)
Austin 90.6F (record 89.7F)

Sites that are close and may tie or beat.
San Antonio 89.8F (record 90F)

Sites that may come up just short.
DFW 91.7F ( record 92F)
Wichita Falls 90.5F (record 92.9)
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1966
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#842 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:46 pm

Well my sprinkler system messaged me and said it's going to rain skip tonight becisse .22 inches of rain are forecasted.

Must know something.......

Did get .02 inches the other day. Small victories.
2 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

Texoz
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:55 pm

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#843 Postby Texoz » Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:21 pm

Ntxw wrote:With today and tomorrow left for July below is the monthly average standings. Many of these locations also experienced their warmest May and June on record. If you account beyond the typical JJA meteorological season, most of these sites will have experienced once August is complete the warmest May-June-July-???? period. Which means one of the longest, hottest if not the most, start to any summer as a whole while the ending is tbd.

These are sites that will likely set the new July record warmest.
Houston (IAH) 88.1F (record 87.5F)
Galveston 88.5F (record 87.4F)
College Station 90.9F (record 89.1F)
Austin 90.6F (record 89.7F)

Sites that are close and may tie or beat.
San Antonio 89.8F (record 90F)

Sites that may come up just short.
DFW 91.7F ( record 92F)
Wichita Falls 90.5F (record 92.9)


20 years is probably too short of a timescale to judge if a new climatic pattern for Texas summer is emerging, but it sure feels like it. Would the current conditions push any tropical systems away from Texas? Toward Mexico or Louisiana?
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#844 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:29 pm

78 degrees and over 2 inches of rain here since the other day . Crazy to see the difference :double:
1 likes   
#neversummer

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#845 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:39 pm

Texoz wrote:20 years is probably too short of a timescale to judge if a new climatic pattern for Texas summer is emerging, but it sure feels like it. Would the current conditions push any tropical systems away from Texas? Toward Mexico or Louisiana?


The extremes (max, mins) may not exceed that of the past (though all records are meant to be broken eventually at some point) but the overall average is creeping upwards. So each 'really' hot summer has the potential to exceed that of the past, not because of wild high temperatures 115F but consistently warmer lows and above normal highs sustain. This is true by numbers for both urban and non urban areas.

Tropical system? We really needed it in June/July and potentially August, and so far has not delivered. Not that I'm saying no to rain from any source but if it waits too late then we might as well get it from the fall transition, that kind of rain pattern is better anyway long term.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#846 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 3:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Texoz wrote:20 years is probably too short of a timescale to judge if a new climatic pattern for Texas summer is emerging, but it sure feels like it. Would the current conditions push any tropical systems away from Texas? Toward Mexico or Louisiana?


The extremes (max, mins) may not exceed that of the past (though all records are meant to be broken eventually at some point) but the overall average is creeping upwards. So each 'really' hot summer has the potential to exceed that of the past, not because of wild high temperatures 115F but consistently warmer lows and above normal highs sustain. This is true by numbers for both urban and non urban areas.

Tropical system? We really needed it in June/July and potentially August, and so far has not delivered. Not that I'm saying no to rain from any source but if it waits too late then we might as well get it from the fall transition, that kind of rain pattern is better anyway long term.


Yeah and it also matters where the weather service places its thermometers at each station. Stations should be placed away from artificial terrain such as concrete and asphalt, but I'm not sure how many are. I have seen some interesting discrepancies of temperature data near an official NWS station. Nearby stations have been consistently recording temperatures as much as 5 degrees cooler. Things like this have a big impact on climate data. I was told to request an audit of the station, but not sure where you do that.
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#847 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 30, 2022 3:54 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Texoz wrote:20 years is probably too short of a timescale to judge if a new climatic pattern for Texas summer is emerging, but it sure feels like it. Would the current conditions push any tropical systems away from Texas? Toward Mexico or Louisiana?


The extremes (max, mins) may not exceed that of the past (though all records are meant to be broken eventually at some point) but the overall average is creeping upwards. So each 'really' hot summer has the potential to exceed that of the past, not because of wild high temperatures 115F but consistently warmer lows and above normal highs sustain. This is true by numbers for both urban and non urban areas.

Tropical system? We really needed it in June/July and potentially August, and so far has not delivered. Not that I'm saying no to rain from any source but if it waits too late then we might as well get it from the fall transition, that kind of rain pattern is better anyway long term.


Yeah and it also matters where the weather service places its thermometers at each station. Stations should be placed away from artificial terrain such as concrete and asphalt, but I'm not sure how many are. I have seen some interesting discrepancies of temperature data near an official NWS station. Nearby stations have been consistently recording temperatures as much as 5 degrees cooler. Things like this have a big impact on climate data. I was told to request an audit of the station, but not sure where you do that.


The question some have for that is, does that really represent where people actually live? Sure asphalt and concrete is going to be warmer but so is your neighborhood vs a park or grassy meadow. Always good to question readings but lots of debate as to where measurements should be made.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 992
Age: 24
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: United States
Contact:

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#848 Postby TheAustinMan » Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:With today and tomorrow left for July below is the monthly average standings. Many of these locations also experienced their warmest May and June on record. If you account beyond the typical JJA meteorological season, most of these sites will have experienced once August is complete the warmest May-June-July-???? period. Which means one of the longest, hottest if not the most, start to any summer as a whole while the ending is tbd.

[...]


I was poking around xmACIS either yesterday or the day before to see which stations were close to or beating their records for hottest July average temperatures. The map below isn't all of the stations (just an arbitrary bunch of them) but it seems like much of the state is having the warmest or near-warmest July on record. Definitely quite a hot one this year, and unfortunately coupled with persistent drought.

Rank of July 2022 Average Temperature (1 represents warmest July on record) as of July 28 (Source: xmACIS)
Image
2 likes   
ImageImageImage
- Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#849 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:09 pm

No measured precipitation at DFW today. Also another 100F (35th) reading.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#850 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:35 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:With today and tomorrow left for July below is the monthly average standings. Many of these locations also experienced their warmest May and June on record. If you account beyond the typical JJA meteorological season, most of these sites will have experienced once August is complete the warmest May-June-July-???? period. Which means one of the longest, hottest if not the most, start to any summer as a whole while the ending is tbd.

[...]


I was poking around xmACIS either yesterday or the day before to see which stations were close to or beating their records for hottest July average temperatures. The map below isn't all of the stations (just an arbitrary bunch of them) but it seems like much of the state is having the warmest or near-warmest July on record. Definitely quite a hot one this year, and unfortunately coupled with persistent drought.

Rank of July 2022 Average Temperature (1 represents warmest July on record) as of July 28 (Source: xmACIS)
https://i.imgur.com/ISCjy31.png


Based on this information, I would say next July doesn't even make it to the top 10. The bigger the extreme, the less likely it will occur soon. It doesn't mean it won't happen, but the odds certainly drop.
0 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#851 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
The extremes (max, mins) may not exceed that of the past (though all records are meant to be broken eventually at some point) but the overall average is creeping upwards. So each 'really' hot summer has the potential to exceed that of the past, not because of wild high temperatures 115F but consistently warmer lows and above normal highs sustain. This is true by numbers for both urban and non urban areas.

Tropical system? We really needed it in June/July and potentially August, and so far has not delivered. Not that I'm saying no to rain from any source but if it waits too late then we might as well get it from the fall transition, that kind of rain pattern is better anyway long term.


Yeah and it also matters where the weather service places its thermometers at each station. Stations should be placed away from artificial terrain such as concrete and asphalt, but I'm not sure how many are. I have seen some interesting discrepancies of temperature data near an official NWS station. Nearby stations have been consistently recording temperatures as much as 5 degrees cooler. Things like this have a big impact on climate data. I was told to request an audit of the station, but not sure where you do that.


The question some have for that is, does that really represent where people actually live? Sure asphalt and concrete is going to be warmer but so is your neighborhood vs a park or grassy meadow. Always good to question readings but lots of debate as to where measurements should be made.


I wasn't aware that there was a debate on where to place them. A NWS employee informed me that they try to limit artificial interference according to their current policies.
0 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3997
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#852 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:43 pm

The latest model guidance is in decent agreement that the ridge will shift north of the region in about a week. This should open the door to easterly waves moving in from the Gulf. The much needed pattern change will likely lead to some slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances returning to much of the state. The best rain chances are expected across southeast Texas.
2 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#853 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:18 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in decent agreement that the ridge will shift north of the region in about a week. This should open the door to easterly waves moving in from the Gulf. The much needed pattern change will likely lead to some slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances returning to much of the state. The best rain chances are expected across southeast Texas.


I think the 11th through 20th is when the Atlantic basin will see Danielle form. I’m honestly really surprised by how busy the EPAC has been. I’ll admit there’s starting to be a little bit of doubt about this season creeping into my head but I still think we’ll have an above normal season but we’re gonna need the EPAC to chill tf out!
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#854 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 31, 2022 10:06 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in decent agreement that the ridge will shift north of the region in about a week. This should open the door to easterly waves moving in from the Gulf. The much needed pattern change will likely lead to some slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances returning to much of the state. The best rain chances are expected across southeast Texas.


I think the 11th through 20th is when the Atlantic basin will see Danielle form. I’m honestly really surprised by how busy the EPAC has been. I’ll admit there’s starting to be a little bit of doubt about this season creeping into my head but I still think we’ll have an above normal season but we’re gonna need the EPAC to chill tf out!


Yeah I'm having the same doubt but we have to remember it's still early. Many seasons have just flipped practically overnight in mid late August. The EPAC being so active has definitely shocked me though and yeah they have to stop
0 likes   
#neversummer

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1735
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#855 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:23 am

90 at midnight. :18:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8071
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#856 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:04 am

Morning email (9:18am) from Jeff Lindner:

Fairly typical August weather pattern will be in place over SE TX this week.

Upper level low pressure system moving westward into the northern Mexican coast this morning will surge a plume of tropical moisture into the area today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore currently will develop inland along the seabreeze front over the next several hours with daytime heating. Once temperatures reach the low to mid 90’s scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop.

Drier air mass sweeps inland on Tuesday and Wednesday with reduced rain chances both days (but not zero) as still expect some isolated to widely scattered activity along the seabreeze front.

Upper level low pressure system will move westward over the Gulf late this week and into the TX coast Friday-Saturday. Deep tropical moisture will accompany this feature and progress inland across much of SE TX by Friday. Rain chances will once again increase with activity focused near the coast and offshore during the overnight and early morning hours and then spreading inland during the day. Moisture values will be into the tropical levels by late week (PWS of 2.0-2.2 inches) and this will support rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour under the heavier storms.

Note:

July 2022 ended as the warmest July ever recorded at Galveston, Houston, and College Station.

Galveston recorded 15 straight days of a low temperature of 85 degrees or above (old record was 7). The low for Galveston of 86 on 8 different days in July was a new record maximum for the low temperature…8 different times!

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
0 likes   

lukem
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 2:53 pm

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#857 Postby lukem » Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:24 am

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in decent agreement that the ridge will shift north of the region in about a week. This should open the door to easterly waves moving in from the Gulf. The much needed pattern change will likely lead to some slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances returning to much of the state. The best rain chances are expected across southeast Texas.


I think the 11th through 20th is when the Atlantic basin will see Danielle form. I’m honestly really surprised by how busy the EPAC has been. I’ll admit there’s starting to be a little bit of doubt about this season creeping into my head but I still think we’ll have an above normal season but we’re gonna need the EPAC to chill tf out!


Yeah I'm having the same doubt but we have to remember it's still early. Many seasons have just flipped practically overnight in mid late August. The EPAC being so active has definitely shocked me though and yeah they have to stop

Wouldn't an active EPAC be good for Texas rain chances in the fall?
0 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#858 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:15 pm

Well, today is August 1st. Honestly, the weather is not bad at all for this time of year. In my area, temperatures have cooled from about 100 a month ago to low to mid-90s for highs. Perhaps we have passed the worst of summer now since in a few weeks, average highs will start decreasing.

On another note, I have not ever talked on here about my career goals, but I am moving to Starkville, Mississippi on the 12th to pursue my bachelor's degree in Professional Meteorology at Mississippi State! So, while I will not be living in Texas, I will still continue to track weather and converse with the community, but I will be busy taking more than a full load this fall. It will also be fun to track tornadoes and other weather while I am living there.
6 likes   

aggiecutter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1743
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: Texarkana

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#859 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Aug 01, 2022 1:53 pm

Image
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Summer 2022

#860 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:29 pm

lukem wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
I think the 11th through 20th is when the Atlantic basin will see Danielle form. I’m honestly really surprised by how busy the EPAC has been. I’ll admit there’s starting to be a little bit of doubt about this season creeping into my head but I still think we’ll have an above normal season but we’re gonna need the EPAC to chill tf out!


Yeah I'm having the same doubt but we have to remember it's still early. Many seasons have just flipped practically overnight in mid late August. The EPAC being so active has definitely shocked me though and yeah they have to stop

Wouldn't an active EPAC be good for Texas rain chances in the fall?


Yeah once we get into later September and October for sure
0 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests