Texas Summer 2022

[weatherdude1108]

Started raining at 6:45 this morning. Been light to moderate, mostly constant. Picked up between 0.5" and 0.75" so far. First measurable rain IMBY since late June.

Perfect start to prime the dry soils to hopefully soak in more!

[bubba hotep]

00Z ECMWF rainfall totals EURO sticking with this idea that somewhere between Austin and Dallas there will be a 20 to 40 inch rain event.

https://i.imgur.com/ZGtkNXP.png

I know the euro tends to overdo convective feedback in situations like this, so what is a reasonable upper bound on this setup in terms of rainfall amounts? Dfw afd does mention convective feedback and near record pwats, which makes me think someone in Texas could get 12”+

10-15" is a reasonable number I think. One missed item is the former 98L that traveled through S-Texas and Mexico, its remnants and possible vorticity is still rounding the former ridge. If there is a discernible meso-center with that feature we definitely could see a rain bomb if it slowly tracks the frontal boundary, that's when the wild numbers could be in play.

https://i.imgur.com/b1QRur8.gif

It's hard to tell for sure but it also looks like the surface vort from 99L gets absorbed by the mid level vort from 98L.

[SoupBone]

Getting dumped on in NW Houston! Finally getting some much needed rain.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1560647468789932033

[Edwards Limestone]

Seems like it's raining everywhere but the southeastern Edwards plateau. Maybe today? Doubtful.

It's been forecast bust after bust down here lately. /antijinx

[SoupBone]

My home has water in, streets flooded here in my area. Unreal.

I had a huge cell sit right on top of my house. I'll post the numbers in a few. A hair under 4"!!! Wow!

[HockeyTx82]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1560647468789932033?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

We need setups like this right around February

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1560647468789932033?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

We need setups like this right around February

Unless it involves a nasty Ice Storm.

[HockeyTx82]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1560647468789932033?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

We need setups like this right around February

Unless it involves a nasty Ice Storm.

Oh sure a very deep cold Arctic air mass

[SoupBone]

I'm about to get another huge round of rain. Orange setting up on top of me again.

[Iceresistance]

I'm about to get another huge round of rain. Orange setting up on top of me again.

Earlier this month, you were complaining on how dodgy the storms was.

[SoupBone]

I'm about to get another huge round of rain. Orange setting up on top of me again.

Earlier this month, you were complaining on how dodgy the storms was.

Feast or famine....the Texas way.

[Iceresistance]

I'm about to get another huge round of rain. Orange setting up on top of me again.

Earlier this month, you were complaining on how dodgy the storms was.

Feast or famine....the Texas way.

We either get the worst of the storms, or none of it.

[Iceresistance]

We need setups like this right around February

Unless it involves a nasty Ice Storm.

Oh sure a very deep cold Arctic air mass

Oh yes on the snow, but it's all fun and games until the power goes out.

[Edwards Limestone]

Another outflow boundary forming south of Austin

[South Texas Storms]

Another outflow boundary forming south of Austin

Watch the outflow boundary moving westward from the Houston storms. That could help to spark some development near SA in a few hours. This is what the HRRR has been indicating for the past several runs.

[Edwards Limestone]

Another outflow boundary forming south of Austin

Watch the outflow boundary moving westward from the Houston storms. That could help to spark some development near SA in a few hours. This is what the HRRR has been indicating for the past several runs.

That would be awesome. Since you're a pro...why exactly do these outflow boundaries seem to sometimes spark convection, but other times seem to cut it off? Does it mostly depend on the upper air profile?

[South Texas Storms]

Another outflow boundary forming south of Austin

Watch the outflow boundary moving westward from the Houston storms. That could help to spark some development near SA in a few hours. This is what the HRRR has been indicating for the past several runs.

That would be awesome. Since you're a pro...why exactly do these outflow boundaries seem to sometimes spark convection, but other times seem to cut it off? Does it mostly depend on the upper air profile?

Yeah a lot of times it depends on the upper-air profile and the upstream environment. Yesterday there was some dry air hanging around Bexar county which wasn't conducive for the outflow boundary sparking more storms as it pushed south.

When two outflow boundaries collide, that is normally a good signal that storms will fire from the converging boundaries. Watch for this possibility later this afternoon near Bexar county.

[SoupBone]

So I ended up with just under 4.5" today, insane. Got my home cleaned up water came through the weep holes and flooded my bedroom. It sas coming down really hard at one point.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z EURO Rainfall totals


I want to mention that the control model on the EURO has calmed down and showing reasonable numbers compared to yesterday where it was at 40 inches. There are certain individual ensemble members still showing 40 and 50 inch totals but most ensembles are now showing 10 to 15 inch totals.

12Z EURO Control rainfall totals


This event starts at the earliest Tuesday for anyone wondering.