Texas Summer 2022

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jasons2k
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Texas Summer 2022

#821 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:29 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:I have had three different decent looking storms head to my doorstep and then promptly fall apart just before raining here. This is getting really old. Some day folks - I will be on the Florida thread instead.


What's funny is that a lot of people on the Florida thread are complaining about it being too dry as well. They are saying it's going to take a TC to break this cycle. Sound familiar?


It’s isolated to SE Florida and they got dumped on yesterday. Also with the humidity they won’t see tree die-offs like we do in Texas. Florida has droughts too but they are shorter and less severe.

I just had my 4th miss of the day too.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#822 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:35 pm

jasons2k wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:I have had three different decent looking storms head to my doorstep and then promptly fall apart just before raining here. This is getting really old. Some day folks - I will be on the Florida thread instead.


What's funny is that a lot of people on the Florida thread are complaining about it being too dry as well. They are saying it's going to take a TC to break this cycle. Sound familiar?


It’s isolated to SE Florida and they got dumped on yesterday. Also with the humidity they won’t see tree die-offs like we do in Texas. Florida has droughts too but they are shorter and less severe.

I just had my 4th miss of the day too.


That's brutal!

Florida drought year is a normal wet year for us :lol: 5" of rain a month for them is considered "dry".
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#823 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:50 pm

Jacob's Well has ceased flow...again. :cry:

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2022/07/28/jacobs-well-stops-flowing-due-to-drought-increased-pumping/

Image

Image
I bet this streamflow chart has nearly perfect correlation with historical PDO conditions.

Rooting hard for some ENSO+/PDO+ relief soon. I'd love to go back to the glory days (just before my time) of PDO+ and AMO- conditions from the mid-1970s to mid-1990s. It's amazing how much the PDO alone affects rainfall in TX (but makes perfect sense given the subtropical jet)

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#824 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:16 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:Jacob's Well has ceased flow...again. :cry:

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2022/07/28/jacobs-well-stops-flowing-due-to-drought-increased-pumping/

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/294969110_5612275308806201_39921962406169160_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s552x414&_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=tjrJPCpnmAgAX92lSQM&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&edm=AIUBd8oEAAAA&oh=00_AT_l4xRcDSKCcMeOalyvwRVzl9yJWM-nUUZDIh7gcSamBw&oe=62E8A0D2

https://res.cloudinary.com/graham-media-group/image/upload/f_auto/q_auto/c_scale,w_800/v1/media/gmg/KC7QWNRMX5AIFDIHZXGBLT3GFM.JPG?_a=AJAEtWI0
I bet this streamflow chart has nearly perfect correlation with historical PDO conditions.

Rooting hard for some ENSO+/PDO+ relief soon. I'd love to go back to the glory days (just before my time) of PDO+ and AMO- conditions from the mid-1970s to mid-1990s. It's amazing how much the PDO alone affects rainfall in TX (but makes perfect sense given the subtropical jet)

https://www.pnas.org/cms/10.1073/pnas.0306738101/asset/2640b595-9ab6-48ab-b273-1ec10d921e67/assets/graphic/zpq0110442280004.jpeg

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3817/14286002452_c89aaf7f7a_o.png


PDO is one of the best long term forecasting tools for wet/dry stretches for Texas. This was my go to indicator this year. You can live off weak -pdo or transitioning PDO but severely negative extensive PDO coupled with Nina is the red flag, makes for a fairly easy hot summer forecast.

Really want to see it let up some more in the coming months.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#825 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:30 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:Jacob's Well has ceased flow...again. :cry:

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2022/07/28/jacobs-well-stops-flowing-due-to-drought-increased-pumping/

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/294969110_5612275308806201_39921962406169160_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s552x414&_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=tjrJPCpnmAgAX92lSQM&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&edm=AIUBd8oEAAAA&oh=00_AT_l4xRcDSKCcMeOalyvwRVzl9yJWM-nUUZDIh7gcSamBw&oe=62E8A0D2

https://res.cloudinary.com/graham-media-group/image/upload/f_auto/q_auto/c_scale,w_800/v1/media/gmg/KC7QWNRMX5AIFDIHZXGBLT3GFM.JPG?_a=AJAEtWI0
I bet this streamflow chart has nearly perfect correlation with historical PDO conditions.

Rooting hard for some ENSO+/PDO+ relief soon. I'd love to go back to the glory days (just before my time) of PDO+ and AMO- conditions from the mid-1970s to mid-1990s. It's amazing how much the PDO alone affects rainfall in TX (but makes perfect sense given the subtropical jet)

https://www.pnas.org/cms/10.1073/pnas.0306738101/asset/2640b595-9ab6-48ab-b273-1ec10d921e67/assets/graphic/zpq0110442280004.jpeg

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3817/14286002452_c89aaf7f7a_o.png


PDO is one of the best long term forecasting tools for wet/dry stretches for Texas. This was my go to indicator this year. You can live off weak -pdo or transitioning PDO but severely negative extensive PDO coupled with Nina is the red flag, makes for a fairly easy hot summer forecast.

Really want to see it let up some more in the coming months.
We need some rain badly.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#826 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:32 pm

12z GFS and Euro are trending cooler for much of the state starting late next week (showers and t-storms?). Looks like the strongest ridging may develop over the Ohio River Valley.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#827 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jul 28, 2022 5:06 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:Jacob's Well has ceased flow...again. :cry:

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2022/07/28/jacobs-well-stops-flowing-due-to-drought-increased-pumping/

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/294969110_5612275308806201_39921962406169160_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s552x414&_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=tjrJPCpnmAgAX92lSQM&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&edm=AIUBd8oEAAAA&oh=00_AT_l4xRcDSKCcMeOalyvwRVzl9yJWM-nUUZDIh7gcSamBw&oe=62E8A0D2

https://res.cloudinary.com/graham-media-group/image/upload/f_auto/q_auto/c_scale,w_800/v1/media/gmg/KC7QWNRMX5AIFDIHZXGBLT3GFM.JPG?_a=AJAEtWI0
I bet this streamflow chart has nearly perfect correlation with historical PDO conditions.

Rooting hard for some ENSO+/PDO+ relief soon. I'd love to go back to the glory days (just before my time) of PDO+ and AMO- conditions from the mid-1970s to mid-1990s. It's amazing how much the PDO alone affects rainfall in TX (but makes perfect sense given the subtropical jet)

https://www.pnas.org/cms/10.1073/pnas.0306738101/asset/2640b595-9ab6-48ab-b273-1ec10d921e67/assets/graphic/zpq0110442280004.jpeg

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3817/14286002452_c89aaf7f7a_o.png


PDO is one of the best long term forecasting tools for wet/dry stretches for Texas. This was my go to indicator this year. You can live off weak -pdo or transitioning PDO but severely negative extensive PDO coupled with Nina is the red flag, makes for a fairly easy hot summer forecast.

Really want to see it let up some more in the coming months.


Remember back in Feb when the models were trying to kill off the Nina... Freaking spring forecast barrier!!!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#828 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:27 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:Jacob's Well has ceased flow...again. :cry:

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2022/07/28/jacobs-well-stops-flowing-due-to-drought-increased-pumping/

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/294969110_5612275308806201_39921962406169160_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s552x414&_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=tjrJPCpnmAgAX92lSQM&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&edm=AIUBd8oEAAAA&oh=00_AT_l4xRcDSKCcMeOalyvwRVzl9yJWM-nUUZDIh7gcSamBw&oe=62E8A0D2

https://res.cloudinary.com/graham-media-group/image/upload/f_auto/q_auto/c_scale,w_800/v1/media/gmg/KC7QWNRMX5AIFDIHZXGBLT3GFM.JPG?_a=AJAEtWI0
I bet this streamflow chart has nearly perfect correlation with historical PDO conditions.

Rooting hard for some ENSO+/PDO+ relief soon. I'd love to go back to the glory days (just before my time) of PDO+ and AMO- conditions from the mid-1970s to mid-1990s. It's amazing how much the PDO alone affects rainfall in TX (but makes perfect sense given the subtropical jet)

https://www.pnas.org/cms/10.1073/pnas.0306738101/asset/2640b595-9ab6-48ab-b273-1ec10d921e67/assets/graphic/zpq0110442280004.jpeg

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3817/14286002452_c89aaf7f7a_o.png


PDO is one of the best long term forecasting tools for wet/dry stretches for Texas. This was my go to indicator this year. You can live off weak -pdo or transitioning PDO but severely negative extensive PDO coupled with Nina is the red flag, makes for a fairly easy hot summer forecast.

Really want to see it let up some more in the coming months.


Remember back in Feb when the models were trying to kill off the Nina... Freaking spring forecast barrier!!!


Hoping for a 2000 redux. Really cold Nov-Dec. If you roll forward and we get a strong Nina basically says there will be one major cold blast. Hopefully. The extenuated -enso (neutrals) included usually gave a cold December relative to the rest of the winter.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#829 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 7:24 pm

It's sprinkling!!!

Our zero raindrops since June 27th, has ended!
:D
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#830 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:31 pm

Big storm with minor flooding up here :double: i haven't seen rain like this since the severe days in May
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#831 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:37 pm

Brent wrote:Big storm with minor flooding up here :double: i haven't seen rain like this since the severe days in May

Yep got a severe thunderstorm warning up here earlier. Definitely nice to finally get some rain and a break from these 100+ degree temps.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#832 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:59 pm

Drove back to Kansas for a brief trip before summer ends. It’s in the 70s. Amazing….
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#833 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:06 pm

76 degrees here and has rained most of the day :double: I've lost count how many days this month we didn't even see a low of 76
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#834 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jul 29, 2022 3:28 pm

Brent wrote:76 degrees here and has rained most of the day :double: I've lost count how many days this month we didn't even see a low of 76

Confirmed tornado in Broken Arrow last night.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#835 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:49 pm

Today is DFW's 25th 100F or greater for July. With June's 9 days we are now at 34. We are encroaching the top 10 list with bottom 5 surely to fall. The forecast continues to show around or above 100F through the next 7 days. Conservative estimate would easily put us at #3. #1 and #2 comes into play if September is hot assuming August matches July.

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#836 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jul 29, 2022 6:03 pm

Pop up showers dancing around the airport. Will the streak end in a rather dubious fashion?
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#837 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jul 29, 2022 6:09 pm

I'm on the northeast side a few miles from DFW. Hearing thunder but no rain. Getting windy and cloudy.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#838 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:24 pm

Saw a shower pop up over dfw airport, may be good for trace-0.01, assuming it even reached the ground
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#839 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:39 pm

Looks like no rainfall was recorded at dfw yesterday, the precip free streak continues.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#840 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:57 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Looks like no rainfall was recorded at dfw yesterday, the precip free streak continues.


If it doesn't happen today then we got a good 7+ days of a dry forecast to push near 70 days. At that point, that #1 of 84 days suddenly doesn't seem farfetched.
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