Texas Summer 2022

[gpsnowman]

Nice little mini break today and tomorrow from the 100's. Then look out, a lengthy, sustained stretch of 100+ days are on the way. And it's not even July. Just nasty.

[Ntxw]

Nice little mini break today and tomorrow from the 100's. Then look out, a lengthy, sustained stretch of 100+ days are on the way. And it's not even July. Just nasty.

It stinks. Lucky few may get popcorn showers today. Small ray of hope maybe thermocline in enso can push for MJO regime change few months later.

We've normalized the heat from May to June. The drought may not be as bad as 2011 but the month of June is beating 2011. Not a good start 1/3 meteorological summer months.

[DallasAg]

It's a stretch, but the updated long term forecasts from CPC have north Texas back in "normal" temps and precip by January, and actually above normal precip by March. Might just be the mirage on the horizon though.

Latest ENSO advisory has us in La Nina until the end of the year now. Ugh.

[Ntxw]

Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!

[captainbarbossa19]

It's a stretch, but the updated long term forecasts from CPC have north Texas back in "normal" temps and precip by January, and actually above normal precip by March. Might just be the mirage on the horizon though.

Latest ENSO advisory has us in La Nina until the end of the year now. Ugh.

I wouldn't worry too much. It is rather unlikely La Nina will continue into spring next year. Personally, I think we will be in neutral by February or March next year.

[South Texas Storms]

Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!

https://i.imgur.com/RLkxpPT.png

Yeah that's certainly our next best hope for heat and drought relief...definitely hope it verifies!

Unfortunately the next week looks brutal, especially next weekend. Much of the state could see highs near or over 105 then. Ugh.

[captainbarbossa19]

Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!

https://i.imgur.com/RLkxpPT.png

Yeah that's certainly our next best hope for heat and drought relief...definitely hope it verifies!

Unfortunately the next week looks brutal, especially next weekend. Much of the state could see highs near or over 105 then. Ugh.

I think models are still being too aggressive with high temperatures in the long range. Last weekend, they were showing this weekend's highs to be about 105 for even coastal areas, and right now it's only been up to about 97 for my area. Reaching 105 is very difficult for coastal regions and it requires very strong ridging and onshore winds out of the W/NW. It can be done, but it needs almost perfect conditions to get there. Unfortunately, I wouldn't be surprised to see this summer pull it off at some point.

[Ntxw]

Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!

https://i.imgur.com/RLkxpPT.png

Yeah that's certainly our next best hope for heat and drought relief...definitely hope it verifies!

Unfortunately the next week looks brutal, especially next weekend. Much of the state could see highs near or over 105 then. Ugh.

There is some support from the ENS and Euro of the NW North American ridge, that would take the pressure off us. At the very least a break from this monotonous heat and down closer to normal. At this point taking anything.

[Ntxw]

It's a stretch, but the updated long term forecasts from CPC have north Texas back in "normal" temps and precip by January, and actually above normal precip by March. Might just be the mirage on the horizon though.

Latest ENSO advisory has us in La Nina until the end of the year now. Ugh.

I wouldn't worry too much. It is rather unlikely La Nina will continue into spring next year. Personally, I think we will be in neutral by February or March next year.

I think the PDO will be important as well. If we have entered a -PDO decadal regime the overall dry stretches will continue regardless of ENSO, just at different magnitudes. La Nina in itself there are good and bad ones but often tied to what the PDO is doing also.

[captainbarbossa19]

It's a stretch, but the updated long term forecasts from CPC have north Texas back in "normal" temps and precip by January, and actually above normal precip by March. Might just be the mirage on the horizon though.

Latest ENSO advisory has us in La Nina until the end of the year now. Ugh.

I wouldn't worry too much. It is rather unlikely La Nina will continue into spring next year. Personally, I think we will be in neutral by February or March next year.

I think the PDO will be important as well. If we have entered a -PDO decadal regime the overall dry stretches will continue regardless of ENSO, just at different magnitudes. La Nina in itself there are good and bad ones but often tied to what the PDO is doing also.

Looking at PDO data, the values have been negative since 2020 combined with ENSO. However, it does look like PDO values have been hanging around 2-3 degrees C below normal since September 2021. A similar pattern took place between July 2010 and September 2012. However, I don't think PDO is a great way to determine dry/hot summers for us. Last year, PDO and ENSO were negative all summer and temperatures were below-normal for much of the state, while precip was normal to above-normal. In 1980, PDO did dip into negative territory in June and the heat/drought was relentless, but before that PDO was positive all spring. ENSO was also neutral to warm-neutral.

Regarding the idea of continual dry stretches, I am not sure I can buy that argument fully yet. 2007 and 2002 are good examples of a positive ENSO event coupled with negative PDO for most of the year, yet much of the state featured above-average precipitation. Meanwhile, 2005 featured positive PDO combined with warm-neutral ENSO from March until July and featured my area's fourth driest spring in the past 25 years. On the flip side, there are years like 2008 that featured negative ENSO and PDO that also had lower than average precipitation for much of the state. These are just recent examples I am using and I am sure that there are other examples like 2008 that support the idea of dry stretches. However, there is also a chance we could have a year more like 2002 or 2007.

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't worry too much. It is rather unlikely La Nina will continue into spring next year. Personally, I think we will be in neutral by February or March next year.

I think the PDO will be important as well. If we have entered a -PDO decadal regime the overall dry stretches will continue regardless of ENSO, just at different magnitudes. La Nina in itself there are good and bad ones but often tied to what the PDO is doing also.

Looking at PDO data, the values have been negative since 2020 combined with ENSO. However, it does look like PDO values have been hanging around 2-3 degrees C below normal since September 2021. A similar pattern took place between July 2010 and September 2012. However, I don't think PDO is a great way to determine dry/hot summers for us. Last year, PDO and ENSO were negative all summer and temperatures were below-normal for much of the state, while precip was normal to above-normal. In 1980, PDO did dip into negative territory in June and the heat/drought was relentless, but before that PDO was positive all spring. ENSO was also neutral to warm-neutral.

Regarding the idea of continual dry stretches, I am not sure I can buy that argument fully yet. 2007 and 2002 are good examples of a positive ENSO event coupled with negative PDO for most of the year, yet much of the state featured above-average precipitation. Meanwhile, 2005 featured positive PDO combined with warm-neutral ENSO from March until July and featured my area's fourth driest spring in the past 25 years. On the flip side, there are years like 2008 that featured negative ENSO and PDO that also had lower than average precipitation for much of the state. These are just recent examples I am using and I am sure that there are other examples like 2008 that support the idea of dry stretches. However, there is also a chance we could have a year more like 2002 or 2007.

Well yeah but saying it's going to flip because it's going to flip is not a great way to go about it from a predictive standpoint. The key being that right now the PDO is very negative, alongside the usual 500mb unfavorably from La Nina, and the SOI from the Pacific. Last year the 500mb pattern over North America was favorable for Texas in the summer from the usual, but this year it is not. That's the whole picture and what is present and should continue for some months more given the nature of how these indexes work. Will it change? Eventually but we don't know if it will anytime soon. The years you mentioned like 1980, 2002, 2007 etc are all within transition between + and - PDO periods. We are entrenched in one now unlike those mentioned years. So if you were making a sound prediction or looking ahead, it's not likely to drastically change...until something does then you are looking at months down the road before the effects are settled. We just got out of a decent + stretch so it's just mother nature balancing the very wet stretch with a dry stretch in the decadal pattern.

There is no guaranty warm ENSO will happen either. Not with the trade winds still anomalous over the Pacific. You need successive WWBs to change that first and then will allow the thermocline to decrease in slope, at that point in conjecture with the MJO can help kick off +ENSO. None of this is expected to occur any time soon, Summer and Fall is also often not the time for such drastic changes to happen that quickly.

[Brent]

Need this to come true. Higher heights over the Pac NW is good!

https://i.imgur.com/RLkxpPT.png

Yeah that's certainly our next best hope for heat and drought relief...definitely hope it verifies!

Unfortunately the next week looks brutal, especially next weekend. Much of the state could see highs near or over 105 then. Ugh.

There is some support from the ENS and Euro of the NW North American ridge, that would take the pressure off us. At the very least a break from this monotonous heat and down closer to normal. At this point taking anything.

One of our mets up here is talking about that timeframe too... Hopefully something good verifies. I will say tomorrow and Monday isn't too bad but then it goes back to torch real fast

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman has a 30% chance of storms for my area today

[Yukon Cornelius]

NWS-Norman has a 30% chance of storms for my area today

Same down here. Let’s hope it verifies.

[bubba hotep]

Straight up gully washer here!

[Brent]

The GFS looks really good next week compared to the last couple weeks

[bubba hotep]

Damn... that storm that blew threw here apparently capsized a boat on Lavon and there is currently search and rescue ongoing. Stay safe out on the water.

[bubba hotep]

The GFS looks really good next week compared to the last couple weeks

Yea, ensembles seem to want to flip the pattern and anchor lower heights over Hudson Bay with the ridge on the WC. That would break the heat and give us NW flow chances.

[Cpv17]

Models are showing some sort vorticity moving from east to west across the Gulf around late this coming weekend or into the beginning part of next week.

[funster]

Can handle the last couple days but concerned about July and August now that the ground has really heated up. Delkus trying to frighten DFW residents this am with data he grabbed from: https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfwclimo

 https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1538870556887592966