Texas Summer 2022

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#341 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:20 am

Cpv17 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles are raising an eyebrow for the WCAB/Gulf in the longer range.


What's also interesting is that the majority of members with a more northern component show mostly hurricane intensity. I have to wonder about this although there are anomalies like Dennis and the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane.


Yes, because the stronger the storm the more poleward motion it’ll have. That’s why the strongest members have a northerly component.

This is generally true as a broad rule of thumb, and I think it’s true in this case, but there are exceptions. It’s important to note that the stronger a system is, the more it is influenced by steering higher up in the atmosphere. If steering currents in the lower levels are more to the north, but steering currents higher up are more toward the west, a stronger storm would be more likely to take a track to the west, or on the southern end of guidance in this hypothetical situation.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#342 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:57 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
What's also interesting is that the majority of members with a more northern component show mostly hurricane intensity. I have to wonder about this although there are anomalies like Dennis and the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane.


Yes, because the stronger the storm the more poleward motion it’ll have. That’s why the strongest members have a northerly component.

This is generally true as a broad rule of thumb, and I think it’s true in this case, but there are exceptions. It’s important to note that the stronger a system is, the more it is influenced by steering higher up in the atmosphere. If steering currents in the lower levels are more to the north, but steering currents higher up are more toward the west, a stronger storm would be more likely to take a track to the west, or on the southern end of guidance in this hypothetical situation.


Wouldn't matter for a storm that weak. Just look at the good old-fashioned 500mb steering currents.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#343 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:17 am

Relief is on the horizon for me, after the 100s that is forecasted. I'm expecting highs in the mid to low 80s early next week, it's been trending cooler in the past few days, the forecast used to be in the low 90s just 3 days ago.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#344 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:44 am

12z GFS is optimistic for rain across much of the lower-half of the state over the next 10 days. Rainfall averages are 2-3 inches in many areas with isolated 5 inch plus totals. Please be right GFS. Please be right.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#345 Postby wxman22 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:05 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#346 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:18 pm

jasons2k wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Yes, because the stronger the storm the more poleward motion it’ll have. That’s why the strongest members have a northerly component.

This is generally true as a broad rule of thumb, and I think it’s true in this case, but there are exceptions. It’s important to note that the stronger a system is, the more it is influenced by steering higher up in the atmosphere. If steering currents in the lower levels are more to the north, but steering currents higher up are more toward the west, a stronger storm would be more likely to take a track to the west, or on the southern end of guidance in this hypothetical situation.


Wouldn't matter for a storm that weak. Just look at the good old-fashioned 500mb steering currents.

Yeah was talking more about it as a generalization. Acknowledged above that the conventional thinking is true in this particular case
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#347 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:19 pm



Due to all the rain/clouds, the GFS has much of the state with only 80s for highs! Is this a dream come true or a dream about to be crushed?
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#348 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:15 pm

Please let the GFS be right and the disturbance gets trapped beneath the ridge next week!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#349 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:07 pm

Ntxw wrote:Please let the GFS be right and the disturbance gets trapped beneath the ridge next week!

I noticed that the Climate Prediction Center has the area for at least a moderate risk of excessive heat restricted to Southeast Texas next week as well, so maybe it's possible after all?
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#350 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:16 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Please let the GFS be right and the disturbance gets trapped beneath the ridge next week!

I noticed that the Climate Prediction Center has the area for at least a moderate risk of excessive heat restricted to Southeast Texas next week as well, so maybe it's possible after all?


It's not really, at the moment, a wholesale regime change. The highlighted raised heights in the Pac NW is only a respite. It weakens the ridge over the central US and we see a weak front/boundary pass. Moisture may pool and get trapped for a time with weak flow but eventually the ridge will strengthen again as Aleutian ridge resumes. But we'll take several days of relief.

Cckw activity poking into the WPAC temporarily shoves the 500mb pattern.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#351 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:48 pm

Finally got some rain here today...first time in weeks! Just under 0.50 inch of liquid gold this evening...I'm thankful! Hopefully all of us can get some beneficial rainfall with the weak frontal boundary early next week. I'm cautiously optimistic!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#352 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:16 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Finally got some rain here today...first time in weeks! Just under 0.50 inch of liquid gold this evening...I'm thankful! Hopefully all of us can get some beneficial rainfall with the weak frontal boundary early next week. I'm cautiously optimistic!


Got a whole 0.04" in SW Houston, almost as heavy as the 0.06" on the 2nd. At least we can now stop saying "it's hot for spring" and just say, "it's summer, it's supposed to be hot". Time for a nice, long bike ride on Friday.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#353 Postby Nederlander » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Finally got some rain here today...first time in weeks! Just under 0.50 inch of liquid gold this evening...I'm thankful! Hopefully all of us can get some beneficial rainfall with the weak frontal boundary early next week. I'm cautiously optimistic!


Got a whole 0.04" in SW Houston, almost as heavy as the 0.06" on the 2nd. At least we can now stop saying "it's hot for spring" and just say, "it's summer, it's supposed to be hot". Time for a nice, long bike ride on Friday.


This is ALL YOUR FAULT!

:grr:
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#354 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:29 pm

There's some interesting EPS members in the Gulf towards the 4th of July with that African wave

It's very early in the season but if something can get to the Gulf it's definitely boiling
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#355 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:50 am

Nederlander wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Finally got some rain here today...first time in weeks! Just under 0.50 inch of liquid gold this evening...I'm thankful! Hopefully all of us can get some beneficial rainfall with the weak frontal boundary early next week. I'm cautiously optimistic!


Got a whole 0.04" in SW Houston, almost as heavy as the 0.06" on the 2nd. At least we can now stop saying "it's hot for spring" and just say, "it's summer, it's supposed to be hot". Time for a nice, long bike ride on Friday.


This is ALL YOUR FAULT!

:grr:


I think of heat more when it's super humid and hot. We're going to need that rainfall to pickup so wxman57 can really have his revenge. Otherwise, it's just a dry heat and that's not true heat and oppression. :wink:
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#356 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:14 am

Daily SOI has fallen into the negatives today.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#357 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:13 am

Iceresistance wrote:Daily SOI has fallen into the negatives today.


A more Ninoesque reading?
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#358 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:08 pm

Nederlander wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Finally got some rain here today...first time in weeks! Just under 0.50 inch of liquid gold this evening...I'm thankful! Hopefully all of us can get some beneficial rainfall with the weak frontal boundary early next week. I'm cautiously optimistic!


Got a whole 0.04" in SW Houston, almost as heavy as the 0.06" on the 2nd. At least we can now stop saying "it's hot for spring" and just say, "it's summer, it's supposed to be hot". Time for a nice, long bike ride on Friday.


This is ALL YOUR FAULT!

:grr:



I actually blame him for the year that shall forever be unnamed, but he stated that he left the thermostat too high that year. Sigh....
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#359 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:45 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Daily SOI has fallen into the negatives today.


A more Ninoesque reading?


It was a very weak -1s. Likely reflecting the cckw. Very strong trades is commencing the equatorial Pacific so the Nina base state is about to go into higher gear. So the negative reading like the other times thus far is only a day or two.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#360 Postby Brent » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:27 pm

EPS is even more bullish today on something in the Gulf around 4th of July. Some very significant members
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