Texas Summer 2022

[Cpv17]

WPC has updated, my goodness. 3-4 inches of rain in 2 days!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WPC-Updated.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WPC-Updated.gif

Lucky! Still looks terrible for my area lol

[Iceresistance]

WPC has updated, my goodness. 3-4 inches of rain in 2 days!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WPC-Updated.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WPC-Updated.gif

Lucky! Still looks terrible for my area lol

Just wait a few more days for it to update more, it might also include SE Texas, this system is a bit too far out to include SE Texas rainfall for the WPC.

[jasons2k]

WPC has updated, my goodness. 3-4 inches of rain in 2 days!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WPC-Updated.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WPC-Updated.gif

Lucky! Still looks terrible for my area lol

Just wait a few more days for it to update more, it might also include SE Texas, this system is a bit too far out to include SE Texas rainfall for the WPC.

It goes through next Wednesday, so it includes the upcoming front and potential moisture influx this weekend from the south. Forecast rainfall totals for SE Texas have gone down. It really depends on how far south the front can make it before it stalls, and that’s clear as mud. It will depend a lot of outflow boundaries.

Remember, last week didn’t happen as forecast. We were supposed to get dumped-on on Thursday and Friday last week, but that system blew-up on Wednesday evening and pushed everything south and offshore. This upcoming front still has a lot of unknowns.

[Ntxw]

This should be like the late spring but in reverse qpf wise, starts in the north and gradually shifts south through October with the temperature. In the spring it started south and moved north.

Tropical entities notwithstanding.

[bubba hotep]

Just for the LOL

[HockeyTx82]

Just for the LOL

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022081700/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

I'll take how do you end a drought for $1,000 Bubba.......

[Iceresistance]

Wow, just wow. 3-5 inches of rain possible in just those 3 days.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WOWc620fc3c8e110fa8.gif

[Ntxw]

Best rainfall map from wpc for NTX all year. Let's go August.

Side note really impressed ensembles saw the 500mb weakness retrogression some days ago. That was better sign of a real pattern shift vs just the ridge moving around type of fantasy spotty rains.

[jasons2k]

Both the GFS and Euro have trended wetter with the front tomorrow afternoon/evening, at least here anyway. Nice trend about ~36 hours out.

[DallasAg]

Wind shifted to NW at DFW as of 10:00, so maybe we avoid the compressional warming blast furnace today?

[gpsnowman]

Wind shifted to NW at DFW as of 10:00, so maybe we avoid the compressional warming blast furnace today?

Let's hope so. 102 is the expected high today. Went out over half an hour ago and could feel a little breeze already from that direction. The main pool of "cooler" air is still in Oklahoma with some clouds sinking south. I'm thinking we are going to run a bit under guidance today. We shall see. It is already 92 degrees so it will be close.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff at 9:15. Will add the graphics later, time permitting.

A complex weather pattern will be developing over the next several days with one or two fronts and a possible tropical system.

Large scale trough of low pressure over the eastern US will send a frontal boundary into the region on Thursday. Air mass ahead of this boundary becomes very warm (upper 90’s to near 100) with lots of instability and moisture in place. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region and move generally southward. There is some similarity to the events of last Wednesday when strong storms move across the area. Once again some of the storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds being the main threat. SPC has outlooked a portion of the area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening. Additionally, there could also be collisions with the inland moving seabreeze and south moving outflow boundaries somewhere over the area on Thursday afternoon and evening which could enhance local rainfall and or the severe threat. Given the deep moisture in place storms could easily produce 1-3 inches of rainfall in an hour leading the street flooding.

Severe Weather Outlook (Thursday):
Image

Excessive Rainfall Outlook (Thursday):
Day 2 image not available

Depending on just how active Thursday becomes, Friday may end up more a recovery day for the local air mass similar to last Thursday with widespread storms this Thursday helping to stabilize the air mass. Additionally, it will need to be seen how far offshore any outflow boundaries push helping to cut off any deep moisture supply. Overall, the outflow boundary or weak front should begin to wash out late Friday with moisture quickly returning to the area by Saturday along with scattered rain chances along the seabreeze. Attention then turns to the western Gulf for the weekend into early next week.

Tropical Wave:
Yesterday evening a large ball of deep convection developed along the northern coast of Honduras, and this area of thunderstorms has maintained for most of the night into this morning with some recent weakening. However, early morning visible images suggest that a mid level circulation is evident over the SW Caribbean Sea north of the Honduras coast, which is well north (and over the water) versus 24 hours ago. IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits It appears this circulation is moving toward the W or WNW and a review of surface observations in this area does not reveal any sort of surface circulation. This feature will likely move inland over Belize or the southern Yucatan late today into Thursday and then emerge over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. How this system maintains while moving over the land areas and where it enters the Bay of Campeche will have a potential impact on what happens over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Generally, this wave axis will track NW toward NE MX or S TX over the weekend and some development is possible. Currently NHC has development chances unchanged at 20% over the next 5 days.

The complicate things even more is the potential for yet another frontal boundary to drop southward early next week into N TX and block any tropical system from exiting the state to the NW or N and would potentially leave a weak tropical system lingering over some part of Texas into next week. Needless to say the uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend into next week is high.

Jeff Lindner

[Ntxw]

Ensembles continue to favor NW North America and Atlantic Canada blocking regimes. Favors cooler air mass dumps to our region for disturbed weather. Would love for this to continue straight through winter. The high latitudes have come to the rescue over a putrid global tropics.

[South Texas Storms]

Wind shifted to NW at DFW as of 10:00, so maybe we avoid the compressional warming blast furnace today?

Back to a west wind at DFW with temps already in the upper 90s at noon. Looks like another scorcher this afternoon.

[Iceresistance]

Daily SOI has fallen to -6, likely from the passing CCKW.

[Iceresistance]

It has trended south, my goodness.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WPC-8.17.2022-at-12-PM.gif

[EnnisTx]

Just for the LOL

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022081700/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

That's just strait up map stuff!

[rwfromkansas]

Holy cow, that Euro is funny but also exciting. If it's showing that, and it's half that....still the best rain all year.

[Ntxw]

Holy cow, that Euro is funny but also exciting. If it's showing that, and it's half that....still the best rain all year.

It's actually believable, maybe not exact numbers but stalled frontal boundary and the BOC system not fully wound up that sucks all the qpf to the gulf then gets absorbed to energize the frontal forcing!

[Brent]

74 and raining here... Hard to believe it was 105 yesterday