Texas Summer 2022

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Ridge of high pressure that has been anchored over the southern plains for much of June has shifted slightly to the north and east over the last few days.

On the underside of the high, a disturbance is moving westward from GA/AL into eastern LA/MS this morning along with a pool of higher moisture levels. Higher moisture over eastern LA will begin to spread into eastern TX later today. When combined with weaker surface winds compared to the last several days, the seabreeze front will be well defined this afternoon and work inland from the Gulf of Mexico. A few showers or thunderstorms may attempt to develop along this boundary, but will still be fighting mid level subsidence from the strong ridge of high pressure to our NE. Better moisture profile is in place on Friday along with the disturbance over MS today, nearly overhead on Friday. This will be the best chances for showers and thunderstorms the area has seen in weeks and likely for the next 10 days. The seabreeze will once again be the main focus of any activity moving inland from the coast from mid to late morning into the late afternoon hours. Will cap rain chances on Friday at 30% with ridging still close to work against the favorable moisture and disturbance aloft.

High pressure builds back southwest and over the region Sunday and rain chances fall to less than 10% and high temperatures move back toward 100. May get another bump in moisture toward mid week with 93L over southern MX or the Bay of Campeche, but this will not be enough to cause more than a few isolated showers.

Recent heat, gusty winds, and continued dryness is resulting in increasing grass fire danger over the region. Fine fuels (grasses) are suffering the most from the hot and dry conditions and lack of moisture in the top layers of soil. Several counties have enacted burn bans. Winds will be weaker over the next 2-3 days and humidity values higher in the afternoon, but without widespread wetting rainfall, fine fuel loads will continue to dry and degrade. There appears to be little relief over the next 1-2 weeks for any significant rainfall potential and vegetation health will continue to worsen.

93L:
System remains inland over central America this morning and latest guidance is tending to keep the broad circulation over land areas. Hence development chances have been dropped to 20% and this is mainly for the outside chance the system creeps back over water at some point over the next 5 days.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like nothing interesting for awhile. Doesn't appear like a tropical system is going to bring rain this June, at least outside of the GFSfantasycane of the past several weeks. Perhaps hopeful a weak one can help in July.

You rang?

[Ntxw]

Rooting for the GFS. Euro on the other hand would promise June finishes warmest in stats for just about everybody. DFW is creeping up, likely the only holdout right now.

Euro


GFS

[captainbarbossa19]

Today is the hottest day this year for my area. 97 degrees and 104 heat index.

Edit: Hit 99 about 30 minutes ago.

[HockeyTx82]

Just went on a 10 mile road bike ride on my mountain bike. Thermometer at the home weather station says 103. Wxman57 this is for you!

[Ntxw]

100F and low 50s dewpoint feels great...indoors!!

[Brent]

100F and low 50s dewpoint feels great...indoors!!

Yeah I will never understand how people like this weather. Unless they sit inside by the AC all day I was out delivering all day and it's just ugh and that was with getting back in the car A/C or going into cool restaurants

Oh and at least during the winter even up here we had breaks from the real cold... This is just blah and feels like it will never end

[Ntxw]

I think most of Texas has been penciled in every week since the beginning of May .



SOI has also been on an incredible run. May and June offered a whopping 2 days of negative readings so far(June 1st and 2nd). After March and April only offering 1 day before that. It's been the telling sign from the Pacific overall. Sometimes a signal is quite anomalous and makes a forecast easier than usual, just have to believe it when it sticks out like a sore thumb.

[weatherdude1108]

I think most of Texas has been penciled in every week since the beginning of May .

https://i.imgur.com/c6FfVNT.png

SOI has also been on an incredible run. May and June offered a whopping 2 days of negative readings so far(June 1st and 2nd). After March and April only offering 1 day before that. It's been the telling sign from the Pacific overall. Sometimes a signal is quite anomalous and makes a forecast easier than usual, just have to believe it when it sticks out like a sore thumb.

Yep, nothing new to see here.
I'm getting tired of the local weather guys saying "unprecedented", "extreme", "most 100 degree streak in June ever", "We're in for a long, hot, dry Summer", etc., etc.

What are we, the laypeople, supposed to do with this information??lol Media hype. The world's already a depressing place lately. It'll rain again, just not yet.

[jasons2k]

100F and low 50s dewpoint feels great...indoors!!

Yeah I will never understand how people like this weather. Unless they sit inside by the AC all day I was out delivering all day and it's just ugh and that was with getting back in the car A/C or going into cool restaurants

Oh and at least during the winter even up here we had breaks from the real cold... This is just blah and feels like it will never end

It’s great for swimming

[Iceresistance]

100F and low 50s dewpoint feels great...indoors!!

Yeah I will never understand how people like this weather. Unless they sit inside by the AC all day I was out delivering all day and it's just ugh and that was with getting back in the car A/C or going into cool restaurants

Oh and at least during the winter even up here we had breaks from the real cold... This is just blah and feels like it will never end

It’s great for swimming

That is what I did yesterday!

[captainbarbossa19]

I'm not sure if anyone looked at the CSU probability table posted in the Talkin' Tropics thread, but they certainly think Texas has an enhanced threat this year. They are giving a 28% probability of a major hurricane, a 59% probability of a hurricane, and an 84% probability of a TC impacting the state this season. The normal odds are 16%, 36%, and 61%.

[jasons2k]

This was from this afternoon's AFD out of HGX:

On a different note...
So it time to say goodbye to the NWS, today is my last day and I
get to go out with a seabreeze and some much needed rain with the
storms on the radar.

I started here at HGX in 1993 and have been through a few
events…just a few. Oct ’94 flood and my introduction to a
tropical steady state MCS, TS Allison, Ike, Imelda, Harvey and
50+ inches of rain – who forecasts that (well we did), tornado
outbreaks, hazmat incidents, oil spills and the 2011 drought, oh
the list just goes on. Disasters just seem to happen more often
down here in Southeast Texas – maybe it is all that water vapor
in the air. What I can safely say is the science has come a long
way from the days of the LFM, and calling to get daily river and
lake observations with a wire weight to today with the abundance
of convective allowing high res models, social media, webinars,
ensemble and probabilistic forecasts, flood inundation mapping and
the technology to make these accessible and useful has made leaps
and bounds (with a few hiccups). What I can see on my phone today
with radar and weather sites boggles my mind at times. What has
really become a focus is how the weather impact us, and in that
regard the leaps forward the NWS has made has been a sight to
behold. I can’t say I was first on the bandwagon but it is what
we are all about now. Forecasting the weather comes first and then
dealing with it when it arrives has been something that really
makes this work fun - and hard to call it a job as a weather nerd.
The meteorologists and technicians that I have had the pleasure
to work with here at HGX and across the NWS have been a highlight
of my career, some of the brightest, sharpest minds open to
discussion and the leaning in, willing to take on a challenge and
make it work, at times under some trying conditions. Learning from
my co-workers every day about the next new thing and science of
refining what we know and how weather works. I have had some great
mentors and have been one as well – thanks! Supporting
emergency managers, firefighters, mayors, pilots, EMS, USCG, TV
meteorologists, HCFCD and the public that need weather information
to make decisions and after years of outreach and education and
collaboration recognize that weather is a science but not an exact
one yet and that is where that collaboration comes out shining.
It really takes a team to make the weather enterprise work. I have
been honored to be here through it with all of you.

Get out and enjoy the weather and keep looking up.

45 - Prochazka Out

[cheezyWXguy]

Small hail here for a couple minutes in Dallas. Not even enough rain with it to cover the ground. Hopefully this storm can spread out a bit before sunset kills it

[bubba hotep]

Can it make it to the airport to account towards the official daily totals? #GoStorms!

[gpsnowman]

Small hail here for a couple minutes in Dallas. Not even enough rain with it to cover the ground. Hopefully this storm can spread out a bit before sunset kills it

Storm heading my way. Thunder and lightning just to my south.

[gpsnowman]

Small hail here for a couple minutes in Dallas. Not even enough rain with it to cover the ground. Hopefully this storm can spread out a bit before sunset kills it

Storm heading my way. Thunder and lightning just to my south.

Damn. Looks like it will miss me. Cooled down a little bit though.

[Ntxw]

I got ~0.15" from those storms, I think it just missed the airport asos to the south by a hair. Maybe a few hundredths?

[Brent]

I'm not sure if anyone looked at the CSU probability table posted in the Talkin' Tropics thread, but they certainly think Texas has an enhanced threat this year. They are giving a 28% probability of a major hurricane, a 59% probability of a hurricane, and an 84% probability of a TC impacting the state this season. The normal odds are 16%, 36%, and 61%.

I've heard other people talking about that too... So does the ridging let up at some point because next to no chance anything happens with this pattern despite what the GFS may be showing

I'm guessing it'll probably be July before much happens in the Atlantic anyway with the EPAC active right now

[captainbarbossa19]

I'm not sure if anyone looked at the CSU probability table posted in the Talkin' Tropics thread, but they certainly think Texas has an enhanced threat this year. They are giving a 28% probability of a major hurricane, a 59% probability of a hurricane, and an 84% probability of a TC impacting the state this season. The normal odds are 16%, 36%, and 61%.

I've heard other people talking about that too... So does the ridging let up at some point because next to no chance anything happens with this pattern despite what the GFS may be showing

I'm guessing it'll probably be July before much happens in the Atlantic anyway with the EPAC active right now

I think it will eventually. Either that or nothing will happen and it will be a 2011 redux, but how many times does that situation play out? Looks to me that this season is either going to be big for us or nothing, but if anything gets through, I don't think it's going to be like Don and super weak.