STORM2K

After raising our potential totals this morning, the NWS has been dropping them slowly throughout the day. Hopefully this isn’t a trend.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:After raising our potential totals this morning, the NWS has been dropping them slowly throughout the day. Hopefully this isn’t a trend.

Yeah something to watch... My rain totals up here have been going the wrong way for a couple days now. We're not in as bad of shape as y'all down there but still

Brent wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:After raising our potential totals this morning, the NWS has been dropping them slowly throughout the day. Hopefully this isn’t a trend.

Yeah something to watch... My rain totals up here have been going the wrong way for a couple days now. We're not in as bad of shape as y'all down there but still

At least the heaviest of the rain is expected to be near the core of this drought in Texas.

Brent wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:After raising our potential totals this morning, the NWS has been dropping them slowly throughout the day. Hopefully this isn’t a trend.

Yeah something to watch... My rain totals up here have been going the wrong way for a couple days now. We're not in as bad of shape as y'all down there but still

It’s terrible around here. Every single pop up storm has missed us. The grass is all totally gone and reduced down to just dirt and thatch and the only moisture we’ve gotten lately was from the fog this morning. That week of 112-115 everyday was the nail in the coffin. It’s been brutal.

Crazy that is an ensemble mean!

18Z NAM going out 84 hours showing some places in north Texas could be at a foot a rain by Tuesday morning.

bubba hotep wrote:Crazy that is an ensemble mean!

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2022081912/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

Actually wetter compared to the WPC's QPF forecast for a good portion of Oklahoma (Including Pott. County)

Got 1.5" today!

bubba hotep wrote:Crazy that is an ensemble mean!

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2022081912/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

The core of all this rain shifts from run to run but at least a core still exists. Parts of Texas will be drenched.....somewhere. It's good news for most Texans.

I would mostly agree but I unexpectedly got around 4.5" today and it flooded my bedroom. It came down hard and fast. So someone is going to get more than they bargained for.

bubba hotep wrote:Crazy that is an ensemble mean!

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2022081912/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

The entire state of Louisiana is the real winner lol.

I'll be happy with 2-4". SOI still negative.

Long range still looks pretty good for Texas, safe bet scorching summer heat is over for the year.

Ntxw wrote:I'll be happy with 2-4". SOI still negative.

Long range still looks pretty good for Texas, safe bet scorching summer heat is over for the year.

The number of 100 degree days will stand out from this summer. The rainless streak at DFW is in the history books but it is really an anomaly compared to the surrounding stations. The coming rain will knock this summer out of the Top 10 or maybe even Top 20 driest summers and should bump down the temp avgs. Crazy summer but could have been worse.

SoupBone wrote:I would mostly agree but I unexpectedly got around 4.5" today and it flooded my bedroom. It came down hard and fast. So someone is going to get more than they bargained for.

Where I live 4.5” would barely put a few puddles in my yard and ditch. Too much concrete in Houston.

Clearcloudz wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Crazy that is an ensemble mean!

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2022081912/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

The entire state of Louisiana is the real winner lol.

Yeah, no doubt lol that needs to expand southwest by quite a bit

bubba hotep wrote:

Ntxw wrote:I'll be happy with 2-4". SOI still negative.

Long range still looks pretty good for Texas, safe bet scorching summer heat is over for the year.

The number of 100 degree days will stand out from this summer. The rainless streak at DFW is in the history books but it is really an anomaly compared to the surrounding stations. The coming rain will knock this summer out of the Top 10 or maybe even Top 20 driest summers and should bump down the temp avgs. Crazy summer but could have been worse.

Yeah it will be in the books for the blazing start in May and stand out for MJJ. But halt mid-August. Next year should be a Nino and hopefully modoki. In truth getting the magical moderate Nino nested within broad -PDO is golden winters. We just have not had a true one since 2009-2010.

Cpv17 wrote:

SoupBone wrote:I would mostly agree but I unexpectedly got around 4.5" today and it flooded my bedroom. It came down hard and fast. So someone is going to get more than they bargained for.

Where I live 4.5” would barely put a few puddles in my yard and ditch. Too much concrete in Houston.

Well for me it was the pool I had built last year. The equipment sits next to the wall and it's all concrete there. Usually I don't have any issues but it was coming down really fast and hard. The rain basically flowed straight into the weep holes into the bedroom like a damn river. It was nuts. I'm going to have to figure out a fix, not sure what to do.

Cpv17 wrote:

Clearcloudz wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Crazy that is an ensemble mean!

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2022081912/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png

The entire state of Louisiana is the real winner lol.

Yeah, no doubt lol that needs to expand southwest by quite a bit

Yes, please. I keep missing most of the rain.

jasons2k wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Clearcloudz wrote:
The entire state of Louisiana is the real winner lol.

Yeah, no doubt lol that needs to expand southwest by quite a bit

Yes, please. I keep missing most of the rain.

Which is crazy. You're maybe 10 miles from me and I got dumped on. It was one cell that just sat on top of me.

I got 2.8” here and you can barely even tell it rained. There’s not any standing water anywhere.