STORM2K

The 0z GFS would be horrible similar to Harvey

Brent wrote:The 0z GFS would be horrible similar to Harvey

https://i.ibb.co/68KCmbS/unknown-14.png

Closer to Carla in 1961, look at the size of the wind field!

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Yeah, I can see that. But we need the moisture so bad here in central Texas. My eyes were drawn to the blues and greens.

Oh for sure! It’s beautiful to see that

I realized I mistakenly put the 6 to 10 day precip map twice.
I just changed it to 8 to 14.

It’s all good! I knew what you meant. I wasn’t gonna say anything lol

The GFS has fantasycanes all over the Gulf. I think it started in south Texas, went to Houston, then LA. Now back south of Brownsiville in Mexico. Where it goes/forms, nobody knows. Maybe we can split the dif.lol(?)

weatherdude1108 wrote:The GFS has fantasycanes all over the Gulf. I think it started in south Texas, went to Houston, then LA. Now back south of Brownsiville in Mexico. Where it goes/forms, nobody knows. Maybe we can split the dif.lol(?)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png

The stuff in the gulf looks bogus to me from the GFS. No doubt a surge of moisture will come but it has been modelcaning South American spinups all week from the East coast to MX.

Now the waves off Africa are real on the Euro and more in line with what is out there.

Ntxw wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:The GFS has fantasycanes all over the Gulf. I think it started in south Texas, went to Houston, then LA. Now back south of Brownsiville in Mexico. Where it goes/forms, nobody knows. Maybe we can split the dif.lol(?)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022082612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_40.png

The stuff in the gulf looks bogus to me from the GFS. No doubt a surge of moisture will come but it has been modelcaning South American spinups all week from the East coast to MX.

Now the waves off Africa are real on the Euro and more in line with what is out there.

Yep! That’s what has my interest. Steering looks scary imo.

We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again I hate La Nina

Brent wrote:We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again I hate La Nina

Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again I hate La Nina

Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.

We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:We need something to happen because my forecast is trending drier and warmer again I hate La Nina

Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.

We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite

Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.

Ntxw wrote:

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
Things are looking very good for us down here. Not sure I’ve seen a wetter forecast all year.

We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite

Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.

I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.

Iceresistance wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Brent wrote:
We missed out last week when Dallas had the flood(and all month tbh... Not even a half inch at the airport) and this event coming up tomorrow and Monday doesn't look all that great then it's back to summer-lite

Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.

I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.

Now its trying to recurve and help us but the problem is it's been all over the place I'm not even sure that storm is real

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
Oklahoma rain patterns are slightly different than Texas. Further away from the gulf so tropical surges lose their ability way up there. Like in late Spring the sooner state relies heavily on PVa (upper vorticity). The closer you are to the pole, further north, the more reliant one is to the mid latitude pattern. You'll have to wait until the true change of seasons.

I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.

Now its trying to recurve and help us but the problem is it's been all over the place I'm not even sure that storm is real

The concern always is if the open Atlantic/East coast start seeing tropical activity. It's almost surefire to put us in subsidence which is a drying trend.

Also we will be moving to the Fall thread next week!

Speaking of Hurricanes, the ensembles and some runs of the OPs that develop the Atlantic system pulls the trough east from the Aleutians-GOA to Western NW North America. That'll bring the ridge back into the middle of the US.

Received a couple of heavier showers tonight with random pop-ups in my area, just about stationary where they form and fizzle out.

Got between 0.25" and 0.5" so far. There is an Areal Flood Advisory just to my north. Stationary cell. I feel fortunate!


Update: Round 3! Steady hard rain. Sweet spot!
I'll check total in the morning.

I got 3" last night!!

Highly localized over Cedar Park/far north Austin. Kept redeveloping right over us!

Most of it soaked in. And this isn't even the main event! Very thankful!

Ntxw wrote:

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:I've always thought that the GFS Modelcane literally sucked away the moisture away from us.

Now its trying to recurve and help us but the problem is it's been all over the place I'm not even sure that storm is real

The concern always is if the open Atlantic/East coast start seeing tropical activity. It's almost surefire to put us in subsidence which is a drying trend.

Also we will be moving to the Fall thread next week!

I don’t see that happening, at least not anytime real soon. Ridging looks pretty stout along the EC. I’m actually favoring a w or wsw bend with 91L through either the northern Caribbean or SFL and probably a splashdown into the Gulf.

Surprise severe storm just NE of Norman, OK