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Brent wrote:EPS is even more bullish today on something in the Gulf around 4th of July. Some very significant members
captainbarbossa19 wrote:It is becoming more likely that the Texas coast may be dealing with a tropical depression/weak tropical storm this upcoming week.
first time in June in 9 years captainbarbossa19 wrote:It is becoming more likely that the Texas coast may be dealing with a tropical depression/weak tropical storm this upcoming week.
Ntxw wrote:We need it! Rooting for a weak slow moving NW Gulf low. Next week is basically a miracle compared to what's been.
But you know it won't last, analogs and CPC already prepping for July. Forecast is for it to begin as May and June has been. More chances for heat ugh.
https://i.imgur.com/6ZiOUeU.png
Don't spoil the fun before the suck.
2. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Any development of this system would
likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Ntxw wrote:Today will be DFW's 8th 100F reading matching the total for all of last year in a single month. Tomorrow if the forecast holds should be the 9th. That's where it will likely hold off given the forecast which will place June in 3rd all time most 100F days.
DFW airport had some string of luck the past two weeks. There were many 99F days where if it were less than a degree warmer in theory could have been 14 days and set a new record.
Extended analogs suggest increased risk of above normal through July, I'm going to make a guess DFW may see >20 days of 100F for the month. Since a similar ridging pattern as June in July yields higher temps.
Texoz wrote:Ntxw wrote:Today will be DFW's 8th 100F reading matching the total for all of last year in a single month. Tomorrow if the forecast holds should be the 9th. That's where it will likely hold off given the forecast which will place June in 3rd all time most 100F days.
DFW airport had some string of luck the past two weeks. There were many 99F days where if it were less than a degree warmer in theory could have been 14 days and set a new record.
Extended analogs suggest increased risk of above normal through July, I'm going to make a guess DFW may see >20 days of 100F for the month. Since a similar ridging pattern as June in July yields higher temps.
Today marks the 20th day for Austin Mabry to be at or above 100. We're on track to have the hottest June on record. Current average is 88.0 degrees. Forecast rain this week will reduce that a few tenths, but the prior record is 87.4 (2008) so this June will likely still beat that.
CORRECTION: If forecast temps (from the rain) are accurate, then Austin Mabry drops down to 84.5 to finish June.
wxman22 wrote:https://i.ibb.co/fn5FjRc/Screenshot-2022-06-25-at-08-35-38-Models-GFS-Pivotal-Weather.png
https://i.ibb.co/ZGhWkRQ/twvo-atl-5d2.png2. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Any development of this system would
likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
bubba hotep wrote:wxman22 wrote:https://i.ibb.co/fn5FjRc/Screenshot-2022-06-25-at-08-35-38-Models-GFS-Pivotal-Weather.png
https://i.ibb.co/ZGhWkRQ/twvo-atl-5d2.png2. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Any development of this system would
likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward toward the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022062600/198/qpf_acc.us_sc.png
Texoz wrote:
Wow. That's concerning. Would be a lot better if it was spread out and 100 miles to the west/northwest.
Texoz wrote:Ntxw wrote:Today will be DFW's 8th 100F reading matching the total for all of last year in a single month. Tomorrow if the forecast holds should be the 9th. That's where it will likely hold off given the forecast which will place June in 3rd all time most 100F days.
DFW airport had some string of luck the past two weeks. There were many 99F days where if it were less than a degree warmer in theory could have been 14 days and set a new record.
Extended analogs suggest increased risk of above normal through July, I'm going to make a guess DFW may see >20 days of 100F for the month. Since a similar ridging pattern as June in July yields higher temps.
Today marks the 20th day for Austin Mabry to be at or above 100. We're on track to have the hottest June on record. Current average is 88.0 degrees. Forecast rain this week will reduce that a few tenths, but the prior record is 87.4 (2008) so this June will likely still beat that.
CORRECTION: If forecast temps (from the rain) are accurate, then Austin Mabry drops down to 84.5 to finish June.
Yukon Cornelius wrote:This 0 rain mess is getting out of hand. Here my yard as of this morning. My pastures that support livestock look even worse. Something has got to change and quick.
https://i.ibb.co/yN4DRWK/15-A5-DD09-98-B6-4-A1-E-A373-0-C65-B9-E25-C81.jpg