STORM2K

Winter Storm Warning in Alaska

Soon the heat will at least not be endless

Brent wrote:Winter Storm Warning in Alaska

Soon the heat will at least not be endless

I want snow this winter after this less than ideal summer. Is it too much to ask? If I can't have snow, rain would be great, but not freezing rain.

Longview did hit 100F yesterday. So close to getting a decent rain from nearby storms but only ended up with 0.14". Parts of SE Longview reported storm damage from what they claimed was a tornado but it was probably a microburst.

cstrunk wrote:Longview did hit 100F yesterday. So close to getting a decent rain from nearby storms but only ended up with 0.14". Parts of SE Longview reported storm damage from what they claimed was a tornado but it was probably a microburst.

Wow, NWS survey confirmed downburst with 105 mph maximum winds.

I don't think there was even a warning.

97F for the high today and 0.03" of rain...

Keep an eye on the system/hurricane formation southeast of Hawaii. Models develop and send it past the IDL linking up with N Pacific trough. This shakes up the ridge over the Aleutian islands. That would be a pattern change kind of like a pseudo Typhoon recurve. I think this is why some ensemble runs have been developing ridges on the coasts.

Also DFW did not hit 100 yesterday only 99.

Certainly looks like there should be more widespread rain across N. Texas next week. Not drought busting by any means but looks like a lot more people will see rain than the last system.

bubba hotep wrote:Certainly looks like there should be more widespread rain across N. Texas next week. Not drought busting by any means but looks like a lot more people will see rain than the last system.

Sounds good Bubba, send some down here bro!

GFS finally giving Texas some hope for rain after a pretty long stretch of nothing. I've been waiting for these runs to show up!

lukem wrote:GFS finally giving Texas some hope for rain after a pretty long stretch of nothing. I've been waiting for these runs to show up!

But then you remember it's the GFS...

Storms would not stop teasing me!

It’s bad when we are getting excited about maybe .10 to at best .50 of rain.

Iceresistance wrote:Storms would not stop teasing me!

This stupid humidity reminds me of the beach without the beach

After looking at the latest Euro Weeklies run along with the past few runs of the operational and ensemble data, I'm becoming more optimistic that the hottest days of the year are behind us. If the latest model guidance verifies, we should see an upper-level trough develop across the Central and Eastern U.S. in the 1-2 week time frame. This should push the heat ridge into the Western U.S. with near to slightly below normal temperatures in TX. Rain chances will also likely accompany this feature for at least a few days.

South Texas Storms wrote:After looking at the latest Euro Weeklies run along with the past few runs of the operational and ensemble data, I'm becoming more optimistic that the hottest days of the year are behind us. If the latest model guidance verifies, we should see an upper-level trough develop across the Central and Eastern U.S. in the 1-2 week time frame. This should push the heat ridge into the Western U.S. with near to slightly below normal temperatures in TX. Rain chances will also likely accompany this feature for at least a few days.

I concur the north Pacific pattern is looking to get a little better. We should see a retrograding weakness.

My only concern is the SOI is still too stubbornly high so cautious with any meaningful rain prospect. But will take anything at this point. If Fall doesn't deliver history of past droughts tell us the next stage will be hydrological, meaning lake levels will be the next problem. A lot hinges on the coming 2nd wet season.

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday-Saturday.

After months of drought and heat it finally appears that much of the area will see some relief this week as several factors combine to bring widespread rains to the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop along the seabreeze today…these storms will have the potential to produce lightning induced fires (as seen yesterday over east Texas). Wednesday starts the same as today, but changes begin by afternoon as a decent shortwave in the developing eastern US trough digs southward over the MS valley. This feature will likely help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over SE TX with this activity lasting well into the evening hours on Wednesday. On Thursday a mid level low along the northern Gulf coast moves westward and into Texas with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely. Moisture levels will become increasingly saturated with PWS of 2.0-2.3 inches late Wednesday-Saturday and this will support some heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday is in the 60-70% range for much of the area including the very parched western and northwestern areas.

High moisture levels linger into the weekend with a weak boundary drifting southward from the north. This will likely keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms ongoing into Saturday. With increasing clouds, moisture, and rain chances temperatures will likely fall short of average highs for the first time in a long time on Thursday and Friday.

Fire Weather:
Last several days have featured numerous grass and wildfires over the region including a 400 acre fire near Lake Somerville which burned 2 homes and threatened 13 others. This fire was quickly fanned by strong thunderstorm outflow winds of 40-50mph which resulted in extensive burn rates and crowning/spotting. Yesterday evening, several fires started due to lightning in eastern Texas from Jasper County into Trinity and Polk Counties. Weather conditions continue to be generally unfavorable for the development and spread of fires, but vegetation and the background drought state is compensating for the light winds and higher humidity levels. Relief in the form of widespread showers and thunderstorms later this week should help reduce fuel load dryness to some degree.

Tropics:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean (97L) is moving westward with limited thunderstorm activity and organization. This wave has about a 40% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next few days before conditions become increasingly unfavorable with stable air and increasing wind shear.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

NWS SHV seems pretty optimistic that a ETX (and the rest of their forecast area) could see 1-3"+ of rain over the next couple of days. Let's hope so.