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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:15 pm
by gpsnowman
cstrunk wrote:NWS SHV seems pretty optimistic that a ETX (and the rest of their forecast area) could see 1-3"+ of rain over the next couple of days. Let's hope so.
Looking promising right now for Texarkana down through east Texas/ Shreveport. The line of storms looks to be slow moving and dumping some good rains atm. Hopefully it expands a little westward towards the Metroplex later today.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:12 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Ntxw wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:After looking at the latest Euro Weeklies run along with the past few runs of the operational and ensemble data, I'm becoming more optimistic that the hottest days of the year are behind us. If the latest model guidance verifies, we should see an upper-level trough develop across the Central and Eastern U.S. in the 1-2 week time frame. This should push the heat ridge into the Western U.S. with near to slightly below normal temperatures in TX. Rain chances will also likely accompany this feature for at least a few days.
I concur the north Pacific pattern is looking to get a little better. We should see a
retrograding weakness.My only concern is the SOI is still too stubbornly high so cautious with any meaningful rain prospect. But will take anything at this point. If Fall doesn't deliver history of past droughts tell us the next stage will be hydrological, meaning lake levels will be the next problem. A lot hinges on the coming 2nd wet season.
That term is not something you want to hear going towards peak season for those along the coast. Yes, rain is good, but we don't need a hurricane and conditions are likely going to become much more favorable soon.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:27 pm
by bubba hotep
LOL it looks like storms are going to split the airport and miss to both the East and the West.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:40 pm
by EnnisTx
Flat out pouring in Downtown Dallas.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:58 pm
by rwfromkansas
Well it’s nice that northwest Tarrant is getting some. Raining just east and west of my house. But, clouds are amazing!
Of course, airport gets nothing. Come on, break the streak.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:21 pm
by aggiecutter
3.5" of rain in Texarkana today, bringing the 2-day total to 4". 50% chance of rain tonight. 70% chance tomorrow, and 40% tomorrow night.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:22 pm
by funster
Some exciting thunder here but no rain.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:27 pm
by aggiecutter
Looks like JB was right about the coming pattern change. All eyes need to be on the Gulf.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 5:01 pm
by DallasAg
bubba hotep wrote:LOL it looks like storms are going to split the airport and miss to both the East and the West.
DFW got the trifecta of doom:
- another 100 degree day
- another daily low > 80 (so far anyway)
- another day without measurable rain (only T recorded so far)
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 5:08 pm
by dpep4
Radar shows that trolling SOB actually donut holed the only reporting station that counts!
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 5:12 pm
by cstrunk
A couple of brief heavy downpours this afternoon got me to 0.58" at my house. Just a few miles away at my boss's house... only 0.04".
He's not too happy.
The good news is lower temperatures and good chances at scattered heavy downpours over the next couple of days.
*EDIT - additional light rain bumped totals a slight bit.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 5:28 pm
by rwfromkansas
Got .38 in north FW. Finally didn’t get skipped.
Looks like the most rain since June 3. Basically the only rain since June 3 IMBY.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:36 pm
by aggiecutter
Actually, Texarkana set a daily rainfall record for the date:
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:55 pm
by Ntxw
Latest PDO index from NCEI came out to -2.48 for July which means it strengthened after a short fall in June. MEI came in strong Nina territory at -2.2.
Preconditions are set, there's a chance at winter very strong Nina.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:10 am
by Ntxw
It's very long range for the OPs but they are falling in line with what the ensembles were showing. How about 80s for highs, NW flow and some chances of rain? Yes please!
Aleutian trough really shifts the 500mb flow, so if it pans out is different than what happened May-July.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:40 am
by Edwards Limestone
Ntxw wrote:Latest PDO index from NCEI came out to -2.48 for July which means it strengthened after a short fall in June. MEI came in strong Nina territory at -2.2.
Preconditions are set, there's a chance at winter very strong Nina.
Unbelievable. Historic. It seems there is no relief in sight for us...just a nasty pattern for rainfall for TX.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:29 am
by Cpv17
Ntxw wrote:It's very long range for the OPs but they are falling in line with what the ensembles were showing. How about 80s for highs, NW flow and some chances of rain? Yes please!
Aleutian trough really shifts the 500mb flow, so if it pans out is different than what happened May-July.
Fingers crossed! That sounds amazing!
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:50 am
by Ntxw
Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw wrote:It's very long range for the OPs but they are falling in line with what the ensembles were showing. How about 80s for highs, NW flow and some chances of rain? Yes please!
Aleutian trough really shifts the 500mb flow, so if it pans out is different than what happened May-July.
Fingers crossed! That sounds amazing!
The models are zoning in around the 20th. 850mb temps are showing below normal, so it might be real. Even if half is correct would be nice. Perhaps a taste of early Fall? North America's +PNA signal looks like a mid latitude Nino-y pattern.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:51 am
by rwfromkansas
Rain west and south of DFW. Hopefully expands east.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2022 12:01 pm
by gpsnowman
Ntxw wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw wrote:It's very long range for the OPs but they are falling in line with what the ensembles were showing. How about 80s for highs, NW flow and some chances of rain? Yes please!
Aleutian trough really shifts the 500mb flow, so if it pans out is different than what happened May-July.
Fingers crossed! That sounds amazing!
The models are zoning in around the 20th. 850mb temps are showing below normal, so it might be real. Even if half is correct would be nice. Perhaps a taste of early Fall? North America's +PNA signal looks like a mid latitude Nino-y pattern.
https://i.imgur.com/H4yb7L9.gif
This would be phenomenal if it holds because it is about to get hot again after the rain chances are done in a few days. It matches with climo though with the averages starting to drop soon.