STORM2K

Some training over Collin and East Dallas counties. Good news for Ray Hub and Lavon.

DFW approaching 1/3" for the day. I'm calling it now. Based on recent model trends and the evolving background state, DFW will end up with above avg rainfall for August. The bigger question - Can DFW rally for an avg rainfall year?

bubba hotep wrote:DFW approaching 1/3" for the day. I'm calling it now. Based on recent model trends and the evolving background state, DFW will end up with above avg rainfall for August. The bigger question - Can DFW rally for an avg rainfall year?

Statistically that's a really tough hill to climb. 20" would get us 37" for normal and that means averaging through December 4" per month. No month in 2022 has yet to produce 4" alone. The best way there would be something like 2018 where the summer was hot and then the EPAC went bonkers and historic rains in Sept/October but that was from neutral to Nino. I would say given the current state if we can get to 25-30" I'd consider that best case scenario, so even getting average rainfall the next few months would be nice.

I got rain! And lots of it so far!

SoupBone wrote:I got rain! And lots of it so far!

Yep, finally! Seabreeze boundary collided with the outflow boundary and boom. Pouring and quite windy here now. I'm thankful!

Ntxw wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:DFW approaching 1/3" for the day. I'm calling it now. Based on recent model trends and the evolving background state, DFW will end up with above avg rainfall for August. The bigger question - Can DFW rally for an avg rainfall year?

Statistically that's a really tough hill to climb. 20" would get us 37" for normal and that means averaging through December 4" per month. No month in 2022 has yet to produce 4" alone. The best way there would be something like 2018 where the summer was hot and then the EPAC went bonkers and historic rains in Sept/October but that was from neutral to Nino. I would say given the current state if we can get to 25-30" I'd consider that best case scenario, so even getting average rainfall the next few months would be nice.

I think it's definitely more important that we return to average or above-average rainfall going forward versus worrying about getting annual average rainfall. Too much rain in a short period of time is not good either.

I finally saw some rain today! 0.67” with some light to moderate rain still falling.

This came from Jeff Lindner at 8:34pm:

Eventful evening in progress with southwest moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms…producing the most rainfall this region has seen since late May.

Northeasterly flow storms this time of year must always be watched as the outflow tends to arrive during peak heating producing very strong winds…this evening was no exception with several 55-60mph gusts over central and western Harris into northern Fort Bend. Inland moving seabreeze front collided with southward moving outflow boundary over northern Harris and a corridor of 2-3 inches of rain fell in an hour or less from Kingwood to Aldine to Cypress. This was widespread and much needed rainfall, but several locations recorded over an inch of rainfall in less than 15 minutes.

Line of storms will continue SW into the late evening with the strong outflow boundary pushing off the coast. Overall meso model guidance did not handle the development well this afternoon and evening as they were not aggressive enough and think the boundary will push further offshore than models think. This complicates the forecast for tomorrow as much of the area will be stable through the midday hours, but the boundary may begin to back toward the coast and then transition inland along the seabreeze during the afternoon. Tropical air mass continues to surge into the region from the Gulf, so the moisture is there, but the air mass may take a good bit of the day to recover. Think rain chances may need to be lowered some on Thursday, but should things get going late again there could be some strong storms along the seabreeze and a few storms dropping SW again from East Texas.

Tropical air mass covers much of the area on Friday and expect numerous showers and thunderstorms. Area soundings are nearly saturated so very good rainfall production in storms is expected with hourly rates of 1-3 inches possible. I have been burned with these overly tropical air masses many times where the surface coastal convergence sets up offshore or right on the coast and the inland locations get robbed of rainfall and moisture and see very little rainfall. Will see how the meso models depict things going into Thursday for Friday so rain chances are low confidence.

Moisture begins to trend downward this weekend, but I am a bit uncomfortable with the low level and 850mb trough axis still over the NW Gulf so rain chances may not trend down as much as the current forecast show.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

Late evening storms just barely clipped me, was able to get another 0.18". Again, better than nothing. It was nice to watch the lightning with bearable outdoor temps. And two days in a row! Let's see what tomorrow brings. I'm loving the thought of below normal temps and average to above average rainfall to end August.

I ended up with .46” yesterday. First measurable rain and at my house since June 19. Sadly, temp peaked at 103 before the rain kicked in, so my streak of 100+ continues.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Next week is looking very hopeful for my area, has highs in the Low 80s with storms, KFOR has 2 such cold fronts, the 2nd one arrives next weekend.

But there is always a chance that it will never come here, it's currently conditional.

The last time I was in DFW for work, it was May 31st until June 6th. It rained most days I was there.

I'm back in DFW again and the rain has returned. Coincidence? I think not!

But seriously - super happy to see the dry streak end for many of you across the state. Hope the good luck continues and we end up with somehow being able to kick the drought across much of the state, or at least diminish it in severity.

I'm sadly under Extreme Drought conditions, it's gotten worse.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1557685018042023943

Things have gone from really bad to much worse down here over the past month. Here's hoping we get some rain in the next few days..yesterday was a total bust for 99% in the area.



 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1557731545183502336

Iceresistance wrote:Next week is looking very hopeful for my area, has highs in the Low 80s with storms, KFOR has 2 such cold fronts, the 2nd one arrives next weekend.

But there is always a chance that it will never come here, it's currently conditional.

The TWC app doesn't even have a big warmup after that... The warmest high is 91(for the record our record yesterday was 115 the hottest ever here...) and that goes out til the last week of August. I definitely think the worst of summer will be over.. not to say we couldn't have a couple days like Sunday Monday again for a few weeks but we're definitely headed for fall

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next week is looking very hopeful for my area, has highs in the Low 80s with storms, KFOR has 2 such cold fronts, the 2nd one arrives next weekend.

But there is always a chance that it will never come here, it's currently conditional.

The TWC app doesn't even have a big warmup after that... The warmest high is 91(for the record our record yesterday was 115 the hottest ever here...) and that goes out til the last week of August. I definitely think the worst of summer will be over.. not to say we couldn't have a couple days like Sunday Monday again for a few weeks but we're definitely headed for fall

CPC highlighting a slight chance of heavy precip for most of North Texas and Oklahoma Aug 19-23. Definitely on board with this!

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next week is looking very hopeful for my area, has highs in the Low 80s with storms, KFOR has 2 such cold fronts, the 2nd one arrives next weekend.

But there is always a chance that it will never come here, it's currently conditional.

The TWC app doesn't even have a big warmup after that... The warmest high is 91(for the record our record yesterday was 115 the hottest ever here...) and that goes out til the last week of August. I definitely think the worst of summer will be over.. not to say we couldn't have a couple days like Sunday Monday again for a few weeks but we're definitely headed for fall

Did Tulsa literally reach 115°F Yesterday as the Air Temperature? I only got up to 98°F (Also, 115°F would have tied the all time record set back in August 1936.)

DallasAg wrote:

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next week is looking very hopeful for my area, has highs in the Low 80s with storms, KFOR has 2 such cold fronts, the 2nd one arrives next weekend.

But there is always a chance that it will never come here, it's currently conditional.

The TWC app doesn't even have a big warmup after that... The warmest high is 91(for the record our record yesterday was 115 the hottest ever here...) and that goes out til the last week of August. I definitely think the worst of summer will be over.. not to say we couldn't have a couple days like Sunday Monday again for a few weeks but we're definitely headed for fall

CPC highlighting a slight chance of heavy precip for most of North Texas and Oklahoma Aug 19-23. Definitely on board with this!

Below-Average Temperatures have also been mentioned too. Look at this!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/WOW.gif

Iceresistance wrote:

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next week is looking very hopeful for my area, has highs in the Low 80s with storms, KFOR has 2 such cold fronts, the 2nd one arrives next weekend.

But there is always a chance that it will never come here, it's currently conditional.

The TWC app doesn't even have a big warmup after that... The warmest high is 91(for the record our record yesterday was 115 the hottest ever here...) and that goes out til the last week of August. I definitely think the worst of summer will be over.. not to say we couldn't have a couple days like Sunday Monday again for a few weeks but we're definitely headed for fall

Did Tulsa literally reach 115°F Yesterday as the Air Temperature? I only got up to 98°F (Also, 115°F would have tied the all time record set back in August 1936.)

No I meant that was our record highest date... Its all downhill from here basically. Didn't mean to be confusing we haven't even been close to 100 since the front the other day

DallasAg wrote:

Brent wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next week is looking very hopeful for my area, has highs in the Low 80s with storms, KFOR has 2 such cold fronts, the 2nd one arrives next weekend.

But there is always a chance that it will never come here, it's currently conditional.

The TWC app doesn't even have a big warmup after that... The warmest high is 91(for the record our record yesterday was 115 the hottest ever here...) and that goes out til the last week of August. I definitely think the worst of summer will be over.. not to say we couldn't have a couple days like Sunday Monday again for a few weeks but we're definitely headed for fall

CPC highlighting a slight chance of heavy precip for most of North Texas and Oklahoma Aug 19-23. Definitely on board with this!

Where do I sign?