STORM2K

We getting a tropical system this weekend? Where's Wxman57?

SoupBone wrote:We getting a tropical system this weekend? Where's Wxman57?

Probably going towards Corpus Christi. Most of the rain should stay south of Houston.

I've noticed that part of Western Mexico is being clobbered with the Monsoon Rainfall with more coming per WPC, could this factor what's going to happen in Texas in the near future?

Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)

Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)

I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.

SoupBone wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)

I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.

That shows about half an inch for your area.

Cpv17 wrote:

SoupBone wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)

I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.

That shows about half an inch for your area.

Corpus Christi has 2 inches of rain on the model, Pinkish color = 2 inches.
Blue from Green = .5 inch.

Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)

I believe in the temperature and trough relief but still kind of feeling some hesitancy with any qpf forecast. It's almost mid August and if the models were right with qpf early month we'd be sitting at 2-3" already but so far 0.41". It's better off taking the low end, even this past week it was nice having any rain and clouds but the totals overall for the state is somewhat lackluster. That's just the background state and drought making a mark.

Better (relative) rains will likely come when the PVa/gradient shifts south with the seasons.

The donut hole over Texas just keeps getting bigger with each QPF update…

jasons2k wrote:The donut hole over Texas just keeps getting bigger with each QPF update…

It appears that the models are underestimating the Texas Cockroach Death Ridge.

Will that tropical system screw Texas out of rain that was supposed to happen later?

I mean, today's GFS and yesterday's Euro had virtually no rain.

Not sure what the CPC is smoking.

rwfromkansas wrote:Will that tropical system screw Texas out of rain that was supposed to happen later?

I mean, today's GFS and yesterday's Euro had virtually no rain.

Not sure what the CPC is smoking.

Just wait a couple of weeks . . .

Cpv17 wrote:

SoupBone wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next 5 Days, All of Southern Texas at the Rio Grande may be impacted by this system.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_apcpn_scus_20.png

(I do want to mention that the 6z GFS has a HUGE amount of rainfall for Oklahoma and Texas by 15 days, but it's too far out for me to show Y'all)

I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.

That shows about half an inch for your area.

You know men always exaggerate inches!

EnnisTx wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

SoupBone wrote:
I'll take 2 inches of rain, bring it on.

That shows about half an inch for your area.

You know men always exaggerate inches!

Oh geez

Hopefully, 98L brings good rains to part of the state that needs it so much.

0zHRRR thru Saturday afternoon...has a decent representation on Satellite.




18zECMWF starting to show some heavy rainfall totals widespread 5+ inches thru midday Monday

Wow, a rogue thunderstorm dropped 0.63" at my house in Longview tonight - very unexpected!! It wasn't very big either, just went straight over my house.

Iceresistance wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Will that tropical system screw Texas out of rain that was supposed to happen later?

I mean, today's GFS and yesterday's Euro had virtually no rain.

Not sure what the CPC is smoking.

Just wait a couple of weeks . . .

Can't keep kicking that can, eventually these rain forecasts have to be called busts. So man days of high percentage rain forecasts where we get no rain at all.