Texas Fall 2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#261 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:20 am

Ntxw wrote:Chamber of commerce weather, great for the state fair.

FYI in a week's time average highs should be mid to upper 70s and lows mid 50s.


Also want to note that there might be a huge cooldown next week, I may see highs in the 60s! But I don't want to be excited for nothing.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#262 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:02 pm

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#263 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:26 pm


Ahhh yes. It's that time of year for the Barney colors. That would be nice.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#264 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:46 pm

Right direction, for now.

Image
Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#265 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:31 pm



Yep, the longer range operational and ensemble guidance are beginning to trend towards a wet pattern returning during the middle part of this month. Let's hope it verifies because it's been weeks since we've seen any rain.

The temperatures have been nice and close to average lately, which has been nice.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#266 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:08 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:


Yep, the longer range operational and ensemble guidance are beginning to trend towards a wet pattern returning during the middle part of this month. Let's hope it verifies because it's been weeks since we've seen any rain.

The temperatures have been nice and close to average lately, which has been nice.


I'm a little skeptical about a wet pattern. I do think the fronts will provide enough lift but with much dry dew points of late and no tropical connection and SOI still stubborn, it's going to be toned back as it gets closer as the gut feeling. It is second wet season Afterall so hopefully we get something out of it.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#267 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:46 pm

Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:


Yep, the longer range operational and ensemble guidance are beginning to trend towards a wet pattern returning during the middle part of this month. Let's hope it verifies because it's been weeks since we've seen any rain.

The temperatures have been nice and close to average lately, which has been nice.


I'm a little skeptical about a wet pattern. I do think the fronts will provide enough lift but with much dry dew points of late and no tropical connection and SOI still stubborn, it's going to be toned back as it gets closer as the gut feeling. It is second wet season Afterall so hopefully we get something out of it.


Yeah I understand your skepticism there. But I'm encouraged the models are showing some lower heights over the SW US and Mexico in about 10 days. I'm hopeful most of us can pick up at least 0.50 inch from that system. Euro Ensemble has steadily been showing increasing QPF the past few runs now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#268 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:14 pm

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#269 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:25 am

Great, the daily SOI is above +30 again . . .
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#270 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:49 am

Iceresistance wrote:Great, the daily SOI is above +30 again . . .


Yeah and honestly I don’t really see any real fronts headed this way anytime soon. I just got through looking at the Euro and GFS and don’t really see too much in the way of cool temps headed this way.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#271 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:12 pm

12z CMC, WOW!
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#272 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:46 pm

Iceresistance wrote:12z CMC, WOW!


Wow in what way?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#273 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:55 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:12z CMC, WOW!


Wow in what way?


May be 10 days out, but wow! Winter wants to come early! :ggreen:
Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2m_us_41.png

Anomalies are crazy low as well
Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2ma_us_41.png

Also has snow (Yes! You heard me right!) in Western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#274 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:24 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:12z CMC, WOW!


Wow in what way?


May be 10 days out, but wow! Winter wants to come early! :ggreen:
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2m_us_41.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2m_us_41.png

Anomalies are crazy low as well
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2ma_us_41.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2ma_us_41.png

Also has snow (Yes! You heard me right!) in Western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.


That doesn't seem possible, given our eternal stretch of warm and dry. But then again, this is the year of extremes. Went from "reasonable to ridiculous" overnight (quoting what a local friend said) back in May here. 70s to 100s. Would't surprise me if it goes from 80s to 30s.lol
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#275 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:55 pm

The end of the Euro also looks chilly

Winter is coming
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#276 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:01 pm

It looks like the Euro might be trying to pull in some Pacific moisture after 91L crosses over.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#277 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:17 pm

bubba hotep wrote:It looks like the Euro might be trying to pull in some Pacific moisture after 91L crosses over.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022100412/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png


Well at least next week it appears we’ll have something to watch. Kinda intrigued about 91L.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#278 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:29 pm

Euro has Texline going from low 70's to 30's and snow in just 24 hours lol.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#279 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:15 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Euro has Texline going from low 70's to 30's and snow in just 24 hours lol.


Well the last time we had a third year Nina it did snow here in October after September was a torch :spam: there's so few analogs for them though
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#280 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:40 am

Daily SOI is almost at +40, good grief!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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