Texas Fall 2022

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1501 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:07 am

Jeez! That cold already in Canada? It's their coldest already since 1989!

 https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1597051259496050689


2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1502 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 28, 2022 5:17 am

Moderate risk along the Mississippi River from just south of Memphis to near Monroe, LA (near I-20) tomorrow

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/D2-Moderate.gif
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
snowballzzz
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 126
Age: 30
Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:50 am
Location: Sunset, TX and Tulsa, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1503 Postby snowballzzz » Mon Nov 28, 2022 12:22 pm

Man, it sure sucks watching the model trends pushing that cold air off to the east/southeast and away from Texas in December.
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1504 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 28, 2022 12:36 pm

snowballzzz wrote:Man, it sure sucks watching the model trends pushing that cold air off to the east/southeast and away from Texas in December.


From SE ridge to no SE ridge :lol:. Looks like a muddy model world.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1505 Postby harp » Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:11 pm

:eek: It’s rare that this place is so quiet.
1 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1506 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:19 pm

harp wrote::eek: It’s rare that this place is so quiet.


Yep. That’s when you know there’s nothing worth talking about and the weather is probably gonna suck for the next week or two.
0 likes   

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2703
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1507 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:21 pm

:spam:
harp wrote::eek: It’s rare that this place is so quiet.

Many, but not all, have caught up on rain. Now we just wait until real winter arrives. We need some fantasy long range snow maps to keep us alert.
4 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1508 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 28, 2022 5:17 pm

harp wrote: :eek: It’s rare that this place is so quiet.



I was waiting for the 18z models to start. :D

The Arctic HP has trended stronger compared to 12z already!

ETA: Weaker as an offset later on.
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1509 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 28, 2022 5:23 pm

I hope that CaptainBarbossa19 is going to be okay, this looks really nasty for Tomorrow. :eek:

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Updated.gif
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1510 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 28, 2022 5:46 pm

1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1511 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:45 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote::eek: It’s rare that this place is so quiet.


Yep. That’s when you know there’s nothing worth talking about and the weather is probably gonna suck for the next week or two.


Aside from svr outbreak this week's weather will be largely boring. A couple of cold shots cutting into the warmth thru weekend but next week is when blocking develops.
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1512 Postby harp » Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:54 pm

The 18Z gfs definitely delivers the cold air, albeit dry. But it’s a start.
1 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1513 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:33 pm

harp wrote:The 18Z gfs definitely delivers the cold air, albeit dry. But it’s a start.


Need the cold air first and with how wet it’s been lately you never know about precipitation. I’ve had nearly 8” of rain in the last two weeks. That was almost half of what I’ve had the entire year.
2 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1514 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:16 pm

The MJO appears to be stalling at Phase 7

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFS.png
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1515 Postby harp » Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:58 pm

And what does that mean….??
0 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1516 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Nov 28, 2022 10:36 pm

harp wrote:And what does that mean….??


I think phase 7 and 8 are good for us during the winter but I know very little about the MJO.
1 likes   

Itryatgolf
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 305
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:04 pm
Location: Jackson tn

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1517 Postby Itryatgolf » Mon Nov 28, 2022 11:19 pm

It won't be until mid December at the earliest before we have a realistic chance at winter weather here.
0 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1518 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:37 am

Iceresistance wrote:I hope that CaptainBarbossa19 is going to be okay, this looks really nasty for Tomorrow. :eek:

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Updated.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Updated.gif


Yes, it is looking rather ugly tomorrow. I will be ok though. We have a basement in our library here at State! Hopefully I will not have to use it though.

It has been a while since I posted last. I went home to Texas for Thanksgiving. To my surprise (and also not), it was very wet. When I left in August, things were much drier. I am getting ready to start finals on Friday. After Tuesday next week, I will be finished. Woohoo! I absolutely love going to school here though. It's such a great experience here in Starkville.
3 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1519 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:25 am

Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote:And what does that mean….??


I think phase 7 and 8 are good for us during the winter but I know very little about the MJO.

Phases 7 and 8 are the Arctic Buildup Phases, after that, the air usually gets launched towards the CONUS.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Bhow
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 11:52 am

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1520 Postby Bhow » Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:24 am

Quite a few of the 06z GEFS members are showing some kind of winter storm in Texas around 8-10 days out
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests