Texas Fall 2022

[weatherdude1108]

Doea this mean (in this case) the higher positive number means likely drier?

And if the number were lower/negative number, it means likely wetter (at least for TX/OK)?

I guess the 90 day trend is more the long-term trend?

I'm guessing the latest number is bad for rain in our areas. Just educating myself. Water is a precious thing these days.

SOI is an ENSO proxy. When it is consistently negative, Texas is generally in wet pattern. When consistently positive it is a dry pattern. When you get spikes either way expect a little more extreme (+30/-30 is my general rule for major spikes). When the index has a big swing one way or another then there is likely a pattern shift on the way regarding precip. This is regarding daily values.

30-90 day tells you overall El Nino or La Nina state. Positive being La Nina conditions and negative being El Nino.

September is spiking positive and staying there.

Yeah, it's now above +30 for daily SOI.

Bummer.
I figured so (hoping it wasn't true). I wish there were a "dislike" button.

[Iceresistance]

Jeez, it only fell to 75°F last night.

It's currently 95°F and could be the high temperature for today.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

2000 of Sept we had a death ridge. I think that ridge brought all time record highs to much of Texas. Especially SE Tx.

[TropicalTundra]

End of the CMC basically brings an entire climate change where highs suddenly struggle to reach above 80 and night lows reach mid-high 50s. Unfortunately it doesn't look plausible with how many other models disagree . Hopefully we get a change with rain and temps soon, we desperately do not a summer repeat.

[Ntxw]

End of the CMC basically brings an entire climate change where highs suddenly struggle to reach above 80 and night lows reach mid-high 50s. Unfortunately it doesn't look plausible with how many other models disagree . Hopefully we get a change with rain and temps soon, we desperately do not a summer repeat.

Extended -ENSO analogs (beyond 2nd year going into 3rd or more cold enso) do not favor a wholesale regime change until late Fall. They tend to flip hard though sometime in November. I would keep expectations tame that even October may actually end up warm relative to averages.

[dpep4]

NOAA and at least 1 TV met are showing a front next Sunday, dropping next week's highs for DFW into the 80's.

And for those whining about heat, at least we don't have big earthquakes. 7.6 off Mazanillo today, can't confirm this tweet is from it, but it's impressive:

https://twitter.com/ArelyVmart/status/1571971138271547392

And we don't have volcanoes:

https://twitter.com/wonderofscience/status/1571857311962103808

This is not a time-lapse video. Amazing footage of a river of lava moving at an incredible speed captured by photographer Ken Boyer.

Ain't gonna outrun that....

[weatherdude1108]

2000 of Sept we had a death ridge. I think that ridge brought all time record highs to much of Texas. Especially SE Tx.

I remember that year 2000. It got to a record 112(?) In San Antonio the day I proposed to my wife on the Riverwalk. It was a dry heat, but stifling like an oven, especially in long pants!

[weatherdude1108]

End of the CMC basically brings an entire climate change where highs suddenly struggle to reach above 80 and night lows reach mid-high 50s. Unfortunately it doesn't look plausible with how many other models disagree . Hopefully we get a change with rain and temps soon, we desperately do not a summer repeat.

Extended -ENSO analogs (beyond 2nd year going into 3rd or more cold enso) do not favor a wholesale regime change until late Fall. They tend to flip hard though sometime in November. I would keep expectations tame that even October may actually end up warm relative to averages.

Another sweaty Halloween.

[weatherdude1108]

Here's something to look forward to.

[Iceresistance]

This is ridiculous for September, it's currently 80°F right now.

[cstrunk]

It's certainly hot during the day, but when the sun goes down there's still relief, unlike how it felt in July/early August. Mid-upper 80's with lows in the low 60's are back in the forecast for Monday/Tuesday. I can deal with that. Could sure use some rain though. Getting closer to real fall weather with every day...

[weatherdude1108]

It's certainly hot during the day, but when the sun goes down there's still relief, unlike how it felt in July/early August. Mid-upper 80's with lows in the low 60's are back in the forecast for Monday/Tuesday. I can deal with that. Could sure use some rain though. Getting closer to real fall weather with every day...

I noticed when I was outside watering this morning, it was in the 70s, but it felt different from July/August in the morning, slightly more Fall feel(?). It was like it felt more "crisp", even though it was humid. Hard to describe. It wasn't oppressive, but more on the tolerable side compared to earlier in the Summer. I could tell there was a change in the air. Sunlight feels slightly less intense, even in this latest heat wave. Not scorching.

[rwfromkansas]

I need to put preemergent down and technically should have a few weeks ago but due to the heat it really doesn't matter. The weeds won't germinate until we have true fall weather. I hate going out there when it's this hot, but I refuse to pay for a lawn service to do it since we had just as many weeds with one as without.

[Portastorm]

It's certainly hot during the day, but when the sun goes down there's still relief, unlike how it felt in July/early August. Mid-upper 80's with lows in the low 60's are back in the forecast for Monday/Tuesday. I can deal with that. Could sure use some rain though. Getting closer to real fall weather with every day...

I noticed when I was outside watering this morning, it was in the 70s, but it felt different from July/August in the morning, slightly more Fall feel(?). It was like it felt more "crisp", even though it was humid. Hard to describe. It wasn't oppressive, but more on the tolerable side compared to earlier in the Summer. I could tell there was a change in the air. Sunlight feels slightly less intense, even in this latest heat wave. Not scorching.

Let me know if you're still feeling "it" come this Friday here when it's 101.

[Edwards Limestone]

Here's something to look forward to.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead06/off06_prcp.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead07/off07_prcp.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead08/off08_prcp.gif

CPC leaning toward return of ENSO neutral conditions next spring?

[weatherdude1108]

It's certainly hot during the day, but when the sun goes down there's still relief, unlike how it felt in July/early August. Mid-upper 80's with lows in the low 60's are back in the forecast for Monday/Tuesday. I can deal with that. Could sure use some rain though. Getting closer to real fall weather with every day...

I noticed when I was outside watering this morning, it was in the 70s, but it felt different from July/August in the morning, slightly more Fall feel(?). It was like it felt more "crisp", even though it was humid. Hard to describe. It wasn't oppressive, but more on the tolerable side compared to earlier in the Summer. I could tell there was a change in the air. Sunlight feels slightly less intense, even in this latest heat wave. Not scorching.

Let me know if you're still feeling "it" come this Friday here when it's 101.

Yeah, probably feel different then. Maybe it's the drier feel to the heat, kind of like a humid El Paso.lol I dunno. Sometimes I feel like the human barometer.

[weatherdude1108]

Here's something to look forward to.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead06/off06_prcp.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead07/off07_prcp.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead08/off08_prcp.gif

CPC leaning toward return of ENSO neutral conditions next spring?

Very cool! Although I wonder if there could be a "lag" effect in the pattern switch. The atmosphere has to catch up with the oceans, so may not get significant rains until Fall of 2023(?). But I don't know.

I thought Ntxw alluded to the atmosphere acting like El Nino back when La Nina started because the ocean/atmosphere lag time(?)/catch-up effect. Kind of like the hottest/coolest temperatures in August/February instead of the Summer/Winter Solstice in June/December because of the lag time of the heating/cooling effects of land (moreso of a lag in the oceans since they take longer to heat/cool)(?).

Been the opposite case this Summer with August temps/dryness in June/July, and a "cooler/wetter" August.

Anyway, I really do hope the ENSO lag theory is wrong! Wet and cool is a good thing! Just been burned so many times this year with false hopes.

[cstrunk]

It's certainly hot during the day, but when the sun goes down there's still relief, unlike how it felt in July/early August. Mid-upper 80's with lows in the low 60's are back in the forecast for Monday/Tuesday. I can deal with that. Could sure use some rain though. Getting closer to real fall weather with every day...

I noticed when I was outside watering this morning, it was in the 70s, but it felt different from July/August in the morning, slightly more Fall feel(?). It was like it felt more "crisp", even though it was humid. Hard to describe. It wasn't oppressive, but more on the tolerable side compared to earlier in the Summer. I could tell there was a change in the air. Sunlight feels slightly less intense, even in this latest heat wave. Not scorching.

Let me know if you're still feeling "it" come this Friday here when it's 101.

True. I think it has to do with less radiated heat coming from outside objects, since it was cooler the last few weeks. In July/August, you had weeks on end of upper 90's/100's and everything got hot - the ground, concrete, buildings. So when you went outside at night, all that heat was still radiating from those objects. You don't have that as bad right now. Maybe by the end of the week it will be different (back to oppressive at night), but I still don't think it will be quite as bad.

[Iceresistance]

Cold Front coming through right now!

[rwfromkansas]

Not looking good even into the first full week of October. Ugh.