Texas Fall 2022

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ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1561 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:52 pm

On to the best weather season of the year! :D :cold:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1562 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:11 pm

Is it going to be warm next week?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1563 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:18 pm

starsfan65 wrote:Is it going to be warm next week?


Yes.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1564 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:31 pm

All quiet in here
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1565 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:34 pm

starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here

We're about to move into the most fun section of the year! :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1566 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:44 pm

starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here


There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1567 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:55 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here


There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.
I hope you are right
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1568 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:32 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here


There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.
I hope you are right


I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1569 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:34 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.
I hope you are right


I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.
My confidence level is 7 out of 10.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1570 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:46 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:I hope you are right


I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.
My confidence level is 7 out of 10.


I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1571 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.
My confidence level is 7 out of 10.


I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.
Greenland Block is also the key.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1572 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:05 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:My confidence level is 7 out of 10.


I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.
Greenland Block is also the key.


Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1573 Postby Itryatgolf » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:01 pm

Until the Aleutian ridge breaks down or becomes poleward, we still got a ways to go on cold weather here. The 12zgfs has a 1096mb high over Greenland 234hr btw.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1574 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:07 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.
Greenland Block is also the key.


Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).


I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1575 Postby Itryatgolf » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:13 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:Greenland Block is also the key.


Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).


I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.

So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1576 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:13 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).


I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.

So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.


Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1577 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:20 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:Until the Aleutian ridge breaks down or becomes poleward, we still got a ways to go on cold weather here. The 12zgfs has a 1096mb high over Greenland 234hr btw.

Good lord! How is that even possible!? Lol
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1578 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:21 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.

So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.


Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.

Not just that, the snowfall cover is the highest since the 1960s! Quite the change compared to last year. Literally!
https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1579 Postby Itryatgolf » Wed Nov 30, 2022 11:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.

So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.



Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.

The models don't look all that cold here. Perhaps that will change? We shall see
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1580 Postby Itryatgolf » Wed Nov 30, 2022 11:14 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.


Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.

Not just that, the snowfall cover is the highest since the 1960s! Quite the change compared to last year. Literally!
https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/

Pacific needs a little shifting before it gets cold here. Hopefully it happens to an extent
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