Texas Fall 2022

[HockeyTx82]

12k NAM moved that snow line farther SE and cold air also bleeds farther east

Any chance DFW gets in the mix?

[Iceresistance]

Surprise!


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/day7prob-3.gif

[bubba hotep]

12k NAM moved that snow line farther SE and cold air also bleeds farther east

Any chance DFW gets in the mix?

Highly unlikely, given the storm track, the upper low digs into Northern Mexico and then kicks out over DFW. We would need it to dig farther south and then kick out to our SE.

[bubba hotep]

12z Hi-res models are laying down a very large area of 2"+ rain totals. The 12z GFS trends slower and farther south with the upper low vs. 00z. This really expands rainfall over some of the harder-hit drought areas. This would be a very good track for Texas.

[bubba hotep]

[Itryatgolf]

Yall should check out what Larry Cosgrove said this morning on Instagram in his post

Sorry about that. I meant LinkedIn page

[harp]

Yall should check out what Larry Cosgrove said this morning on Instagram in his post

Sorry about that. I meant LinkedIn page

I read it. I’m in Louisiana, hope it means us too.

[869MB]

FYI…

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false

[bubba hotep]

Yall should check out what Larry Cosgrove said this morning on Instagram in his post

Sorry about that. I meant LinkedIn page

Can you post a summary?

[HockeyTx82]

Yall should check out what Larry Cosgrove said this morning on Instagram in his post

Sorry about that. I meant LinkedIn page

Can you post a summary?

Copied it verbatim.

Even though it should be (mostly) mild through the southern tier of the U.S. through the first five days of December, you could not ask for a more wintry pattern set-up than what unfolds in North America over the next two weeks.

Strong ridging sets up across Alaska and Greenland. The two positive 500MB height anomalies then tend to link with each other, creating an elongate block (-EPO/-AO/-NAO) around and above the Arctic Circle. This "mega ridge" signature traps cyclonic energy and cold pooling over Canada, ultimately forming a cAk vortex in the vicinity of Ontario, James Bay, perhaps Lake Superior by the 11-15 day period.

During the same time frame, storms over the Pacific Basin congeal below the Aleutian Islands, maintaining warm flow into Alaska with the upper ridge. Southern branch disturbances track eastward toward Baja California, along the Gulf Coast, and up along and off of the Eastern Seaboard. Each successive storm weakens a prominent subtropical high that looks to cover the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Bahamas. One such impulse will bring heavy snow to the TX/OK Panhandle Region Thanksgiving into Friday, with excessive rain in the warm sector (E TX, E OK into the Mid-Atlantic). A larger, more definitive storm may crack the heat ridge for good at the end of the first week of December.

When you see a conjoined ridge complex at the pole, the resulting cold regime in Canada and the U.S. will be both widespread and long-lasting. And opportunities for significant snow and ice will be present at lower latitudes. Just think that you will have a chance at enjoying what life in Calgary AB or Saskatoon SK is like during the holidays. In your backyard.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday period, everyone!

[Itryatgolf]

Yall should check out what Larry Cosgrove said this morning on Instagram in his post

Sorry about that. I meant LinkedIn page

Can you post a summary?

Copied it verbatim.

Even though it should be (mostly) mild through the southern tier of the U.S. through the first five days of December, you could not ask for a more wintry pattern set-up than what unfolds in North America over the next two weeks.

Strong ridging sets up across Alaska and Greenland. The two positive 500MB height anomalies then tend to link with each other, creating an elongate block (-EPO/-AO/-NAO) around and above the Arctic Circle. This "mega ridge" signature traps cyclonic energy and cold pooling over Canada, ultimately forming a cAk vortex in the vicinity of Ontario, James Bay, perhaps Lake Superior by the 11-15 day period.

During the same time frame, storms over the Pacific Basin congeal below the Aleutian Islands, maintaining warm flow into Alaska with the upper ridge. Southern branch disturbances track eastward toward Baja California, along the Gulf Coast, and up along and off of the Eastern Seaboard. Each successive storm weakens a prominent subtropical high that looks to cover the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Bahamas. One such impulse will bring heavy snow to the TX/OK Panhandle Region Thanksgiving into Friday, with excessive rain in the warm sector (E TX, E OK into the Mid-Atlantic). A larger, more definitive storm may crack the heat ridge for good at the end of the first week of December.

When you see a conjoined ridge complex at the pole, the resulting cold regime in Canada and the U.S. will be both widespread and long-lasting. And opportunities for significant snow and ice will be present at lower latitudes. Just think that you will have a chance at enjoying what life in Calgary AB or Saskatoon SK is like during the holidays. In your backyard.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday period, everyone!

He may have started his festivities a little early with mimosas based on those last two sentences in next to last paragraph

[rwfromkansas]

He posted this to Facebook as well. Just looked it up. I like Larry. Been following him since I was a kid in Kansas. Will be a sad day to lose him. He’s not always right, but he was right about November.

[rwfromkansas]

FYI…

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false

Good find.

I didn’t know the NBM was public!

[Iceresistance]

FYI…

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false

Great find!

I thought that the you needed a paid subscription to see it for the longest time!

[Ntxw]

Larry Cosgrove's thoughts is quite on the same path as most here. In short there is a lot of cold air pooling in the NHEM. It will not take much to disperse it. Couple it with good blocking and it will come strong. It may happen sooner than you think.

It is that type of season when warmth is always 7 days out . Ensembles continue to show support very cold air is probably down the pipeline. We're looking at a few days of above normal but sandwiched between storminess and relative cool.

[869MB]

FYI…

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false

Great find!

I thought that the you needed a paid subscription to see it for the longest time!

They have other tools as well on their website https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm

But the one I shared is the one I’ve found the most useful. I guess I could have posted this link a long time ago but I’ve been simply too bored with my weather for the past year and a half.

[harp]

Larry Cosgrove's thoughts is quite on the same path as most here. In short there is a lot of cold air pooling in the NHEM. It will not take much to disperse it. Couple it with good blocking and it will come strong. It may happen sooner than you think.

It is that type of season when warmth is always 7 days out . Ensembles continue to show support very cold air is probably down the pipeline. We're looking at a few days of above normal but sandwiched between storminess and relative cool.

It’s still not showing up on the long range GFS.

[dpep4]

As much as we still need rain in Houston, I would prefer to have some sunshine and warmth mixed in! We haven't been above 61f in 2 weeks with a few days never getting out of the 40s.s. Seems about a month early. Every time I think it is going to warm up some my hopes are dashed as I read the different forecasts I follow.

Yeah, too early too cold spells are for the birds.

Though I did enjoy the Leon Lett Thanksgiving snow storm.

DFW this year was blessed with an extra heaping of 80's days for Indian Summer, but man, pretty much just skipped out on the ideal weeks of 70's. Happens too often, my biggest gripe about Texas weather.

[Iceresistance]

Holy 12z GEFS!

[Itryatgolf]

Holy 12z GEFS!

Is it pretty chilly?