Texas Fall 2022

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#141 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:43 pm

Brent wrote:Ugh. I miss the cool air already :spam:


NWS is saying that 100s are possible again next week. :spam: :spam:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#142 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 15, 2022 12:16 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:Ugh. I miss the cool air already :spam:


NWS is saying that 100s are possible again next week. :spam: :spam:


That would be near record highs here this late :spam: ridiculous
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#143 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:07 pm

Long range today shows some Pac NW ridging. Would send a Fall front down but that's way out there, at least some hope.

As for the coming week looks hot for everyone. Core of the heat will center around the core of the drought that's shifted, Oklahoma.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#144 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:07 am

My attitude is getting a bit worse about the heat. I can deal with 95 in September, but 99-100 is harder to take. Lol.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#145 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:40 am

rwfromkansas wrote:My attitude is getting a bit worse about the heat. I can deal with 95 in September, but 99-100 is harder to take. Lol.

Feel the same way here in Houston with upper 90s expected here! UGH!!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#146 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:46 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:My attitude is getting a bit worse about the heat. I can deal with 95 in September, but 99-100 is harder to take. Lol.

Feel the same way here in Houston with upper 90s expected here! UGH!!!


I'm also expecting upper 90s as well next week. We're all scorching! :(
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#147 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Sep 16, 2022 1:24 pm

The Big H is back for a while. I am so looking forward to the first real fall front. 50s for lows and low 80s for highs. October isn't that far away. We will be there soon.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#148 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 16, 2022 1:30 pm

Coincidence Fiona recurves to our east and heat comes? :lol:. Remember it isn't always the TC themselves but how they reinforce, amplify a ridge/trof configuration along with subsidence.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#149 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:08 pm

The forecast has numerous days of 98-99 next week. I wouldn’t surprised to see over 100. Not cool…literally.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#150 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:22 pm

Not much else to say here... Except unlike in August it's threatening record highs :spam:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#151 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:01 pm

Will say this after the late season heatwave there is a lot of model disagreements. Seems like the recurving typhoons is making for a tough forecast.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#152 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 16, 2022 6:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:Will say this after the late season heatwave there is a lot of model disagreements. Seems like the recurving typhoons is making for a tough forecast.


I have noticed the weather apps at least up here have a front and closer to normal by next weekend. We'll see if that holds up
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#153 Postby funster » Sat Sep 17, 2022 8:05 am

The upcoming heat wave sucks but at least the lows aren't supposed to be in the 80s.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#154 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:57 pm

Euro still showing a front at the end of the week. GFS not so much
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#155 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:53 pm

What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long-term rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
:roll: It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"
Last edited by weatherdude1108 on Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#156 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:54 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
:roll: It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"


Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#157 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 5:02 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
:roll: It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"


Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.


Doea this mean (in this case) the higher positive number means likely drier?

And if the number were lower/negative number, it means likely wetter (at least for TX/OK)?

I guess the 90 day trend is more the long-term trend?

I'm guessing the latest number is bad for rain in our areas. Just educating myself. Water is a precious thing these days.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#158 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 17, 2022 5:06 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
:roll: It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"


Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.


Does this mean (in this case) the higher positive number means likely drier?

And if the number were lower/negative number, it means likely wetter (at least for TX/OK)?

I guess the 90 day trend is more the long-term trend?


I'm guessing the latest number is bad for rain in our areas. Just educating myself. Water is a precious thing these days.


You're spot on! :D

It usually takes a few days before the SOI index affects us, but it does not appear to be that case this time around.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#159 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:07 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
:roll: It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"


Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.


Doea this mean (in this case) the higher positive number means likely drier?

And if the number were lower/negative number, it means likely wetter (at least for TX/OK)?

I guess the 90 day trend is more the long-term trend?

I'm guessing the latest number is bad for rain in our areas. Just educating myself. Water is a precious thing these days.


SOI is an ENSO proxy. When it is consistently negative, Texas is generally in wet pattern. When consistently positive it is a dry pattern. When you get spikes either way expect a little more extreme (+30/-30 is my general rule for major spikes). When the index has a big swing one way or another then there is likely a pattern shift on the way regarding precip. This is regarding daily values.

30-90 day tells you overall El Nino or La Nina state. Positive being La Nina conditions and negative being El Nino.

September is spiking positive and staying there.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#160 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:06 pm

Ntxw wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.


Doea this mean (in this case) the higher positive number means likely drier?

And if the number were lower/negative number, it means likely wetter (at least for TX/OK)?

I guess the 90 day trend is more the long-term trend?

I'm guessing the latest number is bad for rain in our areas. Just educating myself. Water is a precious thing these days.


SOI is an ENSO proxy. When it is consistently negative, Texas is generally in wet pattern. When consistently positive it is a dry pattern. When you get spikes either way expect a little more extreme (+30/-30 is my general rule for major spikes). When the index has a big swing one way or another then there is likely a pattern shift on the way regarding precip. This is regarding daily values.

30-90 day tells you overall El Nino or La Nina state. Positive being La Nina conditions and negative being El Nino.

September is spiking positive and staying there.


Yeah, it's now above +30 for daily SOI.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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