STORM2K

Texas Snowman wrote:Well, as Ntxw alluded to yesterday, we’re now within a month of the start of meteorological fall.

So with that, here it is, one of my favorite threads of the year, the official Texas Fall 2022 thread. We’ll move over there in a few weeks on the opening day of dove season, on September 1st, when the meteorological autumn season finally begins. (Good riddance Summer 2022!!!)

Hopefully, our upcoming discussions will include some very beneficial fall rainfall across Texas, some strong and early cool fronts pushing through, and no lingering summertime heat.

We can all dream, right?

Ntxw wrote:There are two forks with -ENSO (I'm including cold neutrals to widen the analogs pool in the beginning). The early analogs start the same, early Fall begins hot that stays above normal. Nov-Dec for the third+ year events turns cold (2000, 2013, etc). We shouldn't see another hot December this year. There are some subtle correlations between hot July/August is a signal for cooler Decembers, vice versa using DFW's metrics.

For the precip front I'm afraid the news isn't that good. Fall in a Nina is a strong signal for dry weather dominating. There will be some rainfall with the change in seasons but unless some big tropical event occurs, we'll continue the theme of more deficits than surpluses.

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

Ntxw wrote:There are two forks with -ENSO (I'm including cold neutrals to widen the analogs pool in the beginning). The early analogs start the same, early Fall begins hot that stays above normal. Nov-Dec for the third+ year events turns cold (2000, 2013, etc). We shouldn't see another hot December this year. There are some subtle correlations between hot July/August is a signal for cooler Decembers, vice versa using DFW's metrics.

For the precip front I'm afraid the news isn't that good. Fall in a Nina is a strong signal for dry weather dominating. There will be some rainfall with the change in seasons but unless some big tropical event occurs, we'll continue the theme of more deficits than surpluses.

Youre much more experienced in this than i am, but I also want to start incorporating not only the static SST's, but also where they are trending at that moment. Models are predicting Nina to start transitioning towards a neutral state. Are there winters similar to this type of state? Starting to realize the importance of not only the current static temps, but where the temps are trending. (Trending temps indicating what the winds are in those areas.)

SoupBone wrote:My trees are already starting their yearly Fall routine. I hope this is a sign of the slow switch to Fall.

TropicalTundra wrote:Tomorrow's the first day of meteorological fall! Sweater season is on the horizon

Brent wrote:

TropicalTundra wrote:Tomorrow's the first day of meteorological fall! Sweater season is on the horizon

So ready to feel some crisp fall air

Periods of heavy rainfall likely over the next 4-5 days.

Wet pattern that started in early August will continue as same features continue to come together to produce scattered to numerous rains across the area. Rain chances will begin to increase today and especially on Friday and into the holiday weekend as a weak frontal boundary, deep tropical moisture, and several disturbances aloft move across the region.

Moisture remains in the 90th percentile for early September early this morning with PWS of 2.2-2.4 inches over the area. With modest heating, expect scattered storms to develop by mid to late morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible along with frequent lightning. Frontal boundary begins to approach from the N/NE on Friday and expect a gradual increase in storm frequency and organization as this boundary sinks into the area and stalls over the weekend.

Forecast soundings over the weekend suggest a very tropical air mass with PWS approaching 2.5 inches over the area and a saturated deep layer up to 15,000ft will support excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. Slow storm motions and/or cell training could anchor these type of rainfall rates over areas leading to flash flooding. There is cause for some concern with a stalling boundary over the area that could help organize slow moving storms. There is little confidence on where any issues may happen, but the holiday weekend is looking wet.

Aside: for those heading to the Hill Country or SW TX this weekend, high rain chances and similar flood threat will be in place for this part of Texas. Grounds have become increasingly saturated over the last few weeks, and with potential rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour, significant rises and flash floods on normally dry or slowly flowing creeks and rivers will be possible. Remain aware of the weather and be prepared to act quickly if near creeks and rivers in the Hilly Country or SW TX this weekend.

Grounds are starting to become wet over the area, especially west of I-45 where rainfall of 1-5 inches has occurred over the last few days. Not expecting widespread flooding, but increasing run-off will be possible this weekend with high rainfall rates. Think the biggest threat will be street flooding as is usual under rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Will have to watch daily trends to see if the flood threat at any particular time or location is greater on some days.

WPC has placed much of the area under a slight risk for flash flooding for the weekend.

Tropics:

There are several areas of interest over the Atlantic, but these will be no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Lindner