Texas Fall 2022

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1461 Postby 869MB » Sat Nov 26, 2022 6:58 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
869MB wrote:FYI…

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false

This is incredible, thank you!


Anytime…I hope you find it useful going forward in the future.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1462 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Nov 26, 2022 11:05 pm

harp wrote:As long as that SE ridge stays in place, I don’t know how far south that cold air will get. I stopped even looking at the GFS. It’s frustrating.

For LA, the SE ridge will slow the cold down. For us in Texas it will just keep the cold shallow. Early to mid Dec seems to be primed for a significant ice event in the Southern Plains.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1463 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 27, 2022 11:33 am

Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1464 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 27, 2022 12:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.

What happened in December 1990?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1465 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Nov 27, 2022 12:59 pm

No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1466 Postby DallasAg » Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:04 pm

Ntxw wrote:Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.


Going by memory of Dec 1990, seems like we had several smallish bouts of freezing drizzle and light snow during that period. Might've gotten down into the high single digits or very low teens. Compared to the cold blast the year prior it wasn't as severe, but this one actually had a little bit of moisture to work with so it made things a little more interesting.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1467 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:07 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.

What happened in December 1990?


OKC
Image

DFW
Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1468 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:34 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?


Anything interesting on it?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1469 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:35 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Not a lot of change in thinking. A cold front/trof will cut into the mild period (DFW may still finish November below normal! NOAA) this week. Still believe a cold dump will occur past the first week, likely shallow driven by MJO movement and -EPO. Then we watch the blocking unfold and the Arctic go belly up (displaced way to the south). Late December 1990 has been popping up in the ensemble analogs.

In the coming days we will probably start seeing some wild runs of cold from the OP suites.

What happened in December 1990?


OKC
https://i.imgur.com/bDEyayg.png

DFW
https://i.imgur.com/RtI3kGq.png

https://i.imgur.com/YiBq9be.png


Supposed to be a decent -nao setting up and ao in the extended period
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1470 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:51 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:What happened in December 1990?


OKC
https://i.imgur.com/bDEyayg.png

DFW
https://i.imgur.com/RtI3kGq.png

https://i.imgur.com/YiBq9be.png


Supposed to be a decent -nao setting up and ao in the extended period


Yeah we'll have a good -AO/-NAO. Strat PV has been deformed and splitting or elongated of late. May actually see that continue into January.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1471 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:56 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?


Anything interesting on it?


Ice storm 270-300 hours out
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1472 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:59 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?


Anything interesting on it?


Ice storm 270-300 hours out


Makes since with cold and precipitation if the cold can press far enough south
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1473 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Nov 27, 2022 2:34 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:No one mentioning the 12z gfs yet?


Anything interesting on it?


Ice storm 270-300 hours out


Long duration overrunning event with a big ULL pumping a firehouse across Texas

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1474 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Nov 27, 2022 2:47 pm

I still would like to see the EPO ridge area displaced much further east from around Juneau towards the Beaufort Sea. That would be ideal for us.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1475 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Nov 27, 2022 2:48 pm

That's an impressive 5-day look on the GEFS, cold air spilling all the way into Central America.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1476 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 27, 2022 2:58 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I still would like to see the EPO ridge area displaced much further east from around Juneau towards the Beaufort Sea. That would be ideal for us.

What about closer to the GoA?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1477 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Nov 27, 2022 3:07 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I still would like to see the EPO ridge area displaced much further east from around Juneau towards the Beaufort Sea. That would be ideal for us.

What about closer to the GoA?


Ehhh, that wouldn’t be bad but that’s still a tad too far west but if it would stretch from there towards the Beaufort Sea that would probably work. Just need it stretch pretty far north so it could grab the air from the Polar/Artic regions.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1478 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 27, 2022 3:08 pm

This pattern seems ripe for an ice storm unfortunately. Just look at the moisture feed of late. I'd say if there is a winter storm anytime soon it'll probably be ice. But maybe I'll be wrong... But I'd be surprised if we don't see more GFS runs showing it
Last edited by Brent on Sun Nov 27, 2022 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1479 Postby harp » Sun Nov 27, 2022 3:28 pm

bubba hotep wrote:That's an impressive 5-day look on the GEFS, cold air spilling all the way into Central America.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022112712/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

There’s that damn ridge again blocking the cold from coming east towards Louisiana.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1480 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 27, 2022 3:30 pm

Can the SE Ridge in the winter be named "The Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge"? :lol:
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