Texas Fall 2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1421 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:Big winter storm on the Euro.

I saw that, would be crazy for Early December Standards.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1422 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:Big winter storm on the Euro.


Cold over the top but need that to cutoff and slow down, which has been the trend this Fall.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1423 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:55 pm

The TWC app has me changing over to snow during that timeframe
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1424 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Nov 24, 2022 4:30 pm

Ntxw wrote:Big winter storm on the Euro.


Has me going from 70’s to 30’s overnight which seems like an ice scenario. Hope that doesn’t play out.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1425 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:55 pm

Signal is pretty strong. Another big -EPO episode will dump cold into North America. This one should be a bit different in that it will be shallow, would not be surprised at an overrunning ice event with the SE ridge pushing to the east. Low level cold at the surface outpacing 500mb flow.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1426 Postby harp » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:44 pm

0z GFS dumps ice on you guys in Texas.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1427 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:02 am

harp wrote:0z GFS dumps ice on you guys in Texas.


Yeah I'm gonna have to pass on this run. Big ice storm. Not much snow :spam:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1428 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:19 am

harp wrote:0z GFS dumps ice on you guys in Texas.


Same timeframe as 12z Euro aswell. Although I’m not sure why this didn’t pop up in earlier GFS runs?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1429 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:20 am

TropicalTundra wrote:
harp wrote:0z GFS dumps ice on you guys in Texas.


Same timeframe as 12z Euro aswell. Although I’m not sure why this didn’t pop up in earlier GFS runs?


It's been kind of showing up here for a few runs on and off(also the weather apps have been hinting. TWC has shown freezing rain in that timeframe). Well see. I mean it is 10 days out but if it gets consistent watch out. I forgot the Euro also showed it
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1430 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:21 am

SPC has a Day 5 Enhanced for Louisiana!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1431 Postby harp » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:23 pm

The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1432 Postby starsfan65 » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:33 pm

harp wrote:The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.
Why?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1433 Postby harp » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:35 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
harp wrote:The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.
Why?

Nothing close to winter weather through December 11th.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1434 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:57 pm

harp wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
harp wrote:The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.
Why?

Nothing close to winter weather through December 11th.


GFS shows progressive flow with a large ridge anchored over the Gulf.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1435 Postby harp » Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:00 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
harp wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:Why?

Nothing close to winter weather through December 11th.


GFS shows progressive flow with a large ridge anchored over the Gulf.

Yep, that ridge is preventing any real cold from coming south. Shunts it all off to the east.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1436 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:22 pm

harp wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
harp wrote:The GFS and CMC absolutely SUCK for Texas AND Louisiana. Nothing encouraging.
Why?

Nothing close to winter weather through December 11th.


Could be right but a few days ago this weekend was sunny and warm in DFW too :lol: I find it hard to trust the op runs when it's wildly different run to run
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1437 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:29 pm

I wouldn't fret, early December was *supposed* to be warm and mild. 500mb may not be favorable but models have been so-so medium to long range with surface cold. Beware of warm forecasts 7-10 days out.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1438 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 25, 2022 7:43 pm

Good lord! The Euro is showing a really negative NAO!

 https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather/status/1596264725590982657


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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1439 Postby Itryatgolf » Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:10 pm


It's best to focus on euro ens and gfs ens with teleconnections imo. Usually they are the most accurate.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1440 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:25 pm

If the PNA refuses to become negative or become a weaker negative only to return to neutral faster than expected, this could have huge implications down the road for winter weather here.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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