Texas Fall 2022

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dpep4
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1521 Postby dpep4 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:13 am

Yesterday in DFW was nice, today will be great! Gimme dat 78!

Then another nice warmup Friday for at least several days (if NWS is correct).
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1522 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:45 am

The upcoming strat PV continues to be weak and looking like the weakest it will be in December in recent memory. -AO is probably a lock. I know the waiting is tough (seems like November won't end :lol) but once these things mature I think we're looking at a memorable period coming. Not just the cold, but snow as well. It's been so long stretch since real blocking has occurred in the Arctic Basin and Canadian Archipelago.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1523 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:49 am

Ntxw wrote:The upcoming strat PV continues to be weak and looking like the weakest it will be in December in recent memory. -AO is probably a lock. I know the waiting is tough (seems like November won't end :lol) but once these things mature I think we're looking at a memorable period coming. Not just the cold, but snow as well. It's been so long stretch since real blocking has occurred in the Arctic Basin and Canadian Archipelago.


It’s looking like December 7th is when our first decent front could arrive.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1524 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:54 am

Ntxw wrote:The upcoming strat PV continues to be weak and looking like the weakest it will be in December in recent memory. -AO is probably a lock. I know the waiting is tough (seems like November won't end :lol: ) but once these things mature I think we're looking at a memorable period coming. Not just the cold, but snow as well. It's been so long stretch since real blocking has occurred in the Arctic Basin and Canadian Archipelago.


I found this on a different forum, insane -EPO on the CFS (Looks like it's the CEFS) for Mid to Late December, that is my target time for us to get nasty cold in December. This signal lasts through at least January.

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/CEFS-model.jpg
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1525 Postby harp » Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:10 pm

Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1526 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:14 pm

harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.

The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1527 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:29 pm

PDS TORNADO WATCH likely for Louisiana and Mississippi later today, oh boy. :eek:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1528 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:49 pm

Iceresistance wrote:PDS TORNADO WATCH likely for Louisiana and Mississippi later today, oh boy. :eek:


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1978.html
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1529 Postby starsfan65 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:26 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.

The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.
slowing down?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1530 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:31 pm

These pattern transitions usually take weeks and weeks. I'm not really worried unless it still shows no cold and it's Dec. 10 or so.

It isn't too surprising to have a period of relaxation.

I did see a picture of the cold front as it was going through Kansas. Pretty gnarly clouds with it.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1531 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:32 pm

PDS Tornado Watch is up for Louisiana, SE Arkansas, and Mississippi. 95/90%! :eek:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1532 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:33 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.

The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.
slowing down?

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ensplume_small-1.gif
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1533 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:02 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.

The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.


Potentially a very shallow air mass. Models wont handle a shallow air mass well at all.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1534 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:37 pm

That warmup was short lived here... Already turning colder quickly
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1535 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:50 pm

Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. :eek: :double: I am monitoring closely the radar.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1536 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:00 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. :eek: :double: I am monitoring closely the radar.

That storm produced a tornado near I-55 earlier today. There are MississippiDOT Cameras in Starkville, MS.

Here is the link to see them
https://www.mdottraffic.com/default.aspx?showMain=true
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1537 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:24 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. :eek: :double: I am monitoring closely the radar.

There is another one that has a confirmed tornado on the ground along MS-15 in Sherwood, MS
It looks like it might just miss Starkville to the north.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1538 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:31 pm

A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.

In the meantime, how about this?
:spam:

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155


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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1539 Postby harp » Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:48 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.

In the meantime, how about this?
:spam:
Unfortunately, that’s from almost 2 weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155?s=46&t=_o4-w-xKfga9ILh5eaPTtQ
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1540 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:54 pm

harp wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.

In the meantime, how about this?
:spam:
Unfortunately, that’s from almost 2 weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155?s=46&t=_o4-w-xKfga9ILh5eaPTtQ


True, which is why I should have added this from Eric Webb from earlier today… :D

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1597692778644852736


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