Texas Fall 2022

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1541 Postby harp » Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:01 pm

Cool!
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1542 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:15 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
harp wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.

In the meantime, how about this?
:spam:
Unfortunately, that’s from almost 2 weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155?s=46&t=_o4-w-xKfga9ILh5eaPTtQ


True, which is why I should have added this from Eric Webb from earlier today… :D

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1597692778644852736?s=46&t=_o4-w-xKfga9ILh5eaPTtQ


To add the easy forecast is the blocking. The models are consistent. What isn't consistent is the wild shifts of troughs/ridges across the US. It will be a little while before the dust settles.

MJO keeps amplifying 6-7-8-1 and weakening passing the other phases. This just tells us seasonable favorability is out in the west Pacific. It's not that the MJO is looping, it weakens elsewhere and strengthens when constructive.

Meanwhile front is sweeping through NTX at this hour.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1543 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:44 pm

Debris ball east of Starkville, MS

Close call for captianbarbarossa19!
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

aggiecutter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1743
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: Texarkana

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1544 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:51 pm

Image
0 likes   

Itryatgolf
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 305
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:04 pm
Location: Jackson tn

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1545 Postby Itryatgolf » Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:55 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1546 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:55 pm


December does look cold after all, also please look at the 12z CFS on Pivotal Weather, VERY ACTIVE late December!
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1547 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:56 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:

Link: https://youtu.be/u_psbYi9Y9I

Fixed the video for you ;)
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1548 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:01 pm

This wind is crazy. It is hard to believe it was 70 degrees at lunch
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1549 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:06 pm

Brent wrote:This wind is crazy. It is hard to believe it was 70 degrees at lunch

Lawton recently had a 51 mph wind gust
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1550 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:42 pm

Iceresistance wrote:

Fixed the video for you ;)


This forecast is very meh. He has Texas with above normal temps in December.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1551 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:17 am

Today is the last day for Meteorological Fall.
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1552 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:03 am

Iceresistance wrote:Today is the last day for Meteorological Fall.


At least we’ll end it on the right note with a beautiful fall-like day!
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1553 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:39 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Today is the last day for Meteorological Fall.


At least we’ll end it on the right note with a beautiful fall-like day!

Winter really wants to get going here to end the Meteorological Fall.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2134
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1554 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:05 am

Another freeze IMBY. That's 6 for the month. Wow.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1555 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:08 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Another freeze IMBY. That's 6 for the month. Wow.

It was colder than expected, my house fell to 22°F this morning

Kenton, OK fell to 6°F, with no snow cover!
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1556 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:45 am

DFW will finish around -1.3F below normal for November and 6.40" of rainfall well above normal. Was a chilly month!

We will see up and down temperature swings through the weekend as battle between blocking setting up to the north and ridging to the south. After that with such a strong blocking set up in place, no choice but for colder, stormy weather to set in.
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1557 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:58 am

Ntxw wrote:DFW will finish around -1.3F below normal for November and 6.40" of rainfall well above normal. Was a chilly month!

We will see up and down temperature swings through the weekend as battle between blocking setting up to the north and ridging to the south. After that with such a strong blocking set up in place, no choice but for colder, stormy weather to set in.

Yep, I'm in the Temperature Rollercoaster!

Everything is still in line for a nasty December Cold Wave with a very negative NAO and AO, the PNA is trending more towards Neutral in Mid to Late December. I've also heard that the snowpack in the Northern Hemisphere is the highest since 1967, I think that this tells Y'all that this winter has serious potential.

The CFS has recently been showing a very active Late December, yesterday's 12z had snowstorm after snowstorm starting on Christmas, and ending it with a snow depth of 1-2 feet in Oklahoma and into Missouri (I'm going to be there in Late December, this is going to be fun)
3 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
starsfan65
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 675
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:18 pm
Location: Garland,Tx

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1558 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:23 pm

What is the AO and NAO index currently?
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1559 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:58 pm

Reminder discussion will shift to the official winter thread after midnight tonight for meteorological winter DJF! Link below.

Texas Winter Thread 2022-2023
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6011
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1560 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Nov 30, 2022 3:49 pm

It’s 47 and sunny in Denison. The leaves are beautiful and this is just a spectacular fall day to end the month of November on.

I love snow, cold, and winter, but fall—real fall!—is my favorite time of year. Hate to see this great month go, but then again it’s time to battle Wxman 57 and his wall, right?!? :D
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 45 guests