STORM2K

Brent wrote:Ugh. I miss the cool air already

NWS is saying that 100s are possible again next week.

Iceresistance wrote:

Brent wrote:Ugh. I miss the cool air already

NWS is saying that 100s are possible again next week.

That would be near record highs here this late ridiculous

Long range today shows some Pac NW ridging. Would send a Fall front down but that's way out there, at least some hope.

As for the coming week looks hot for everyone. Core of the heat will center around the core of the drought that's shifted, Oklahoma.

My attitude is getting a bit worse about the heat. I can deal with 95 in September, but 99-100 is harder to take. Lol.

rwfromkansas wrote:My attitude is getting a bit worse about the heat. I can deal with 95 in September, but 99-100 is harder to take. Lol.

Feel the same way here in Houston with upper 90s expected here! UGH!!!

vbhoutex wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:My attitude is getting a bit worse about the heat. I can deal with 95 in September, but 99-100 is harder to take. Lol.

Feel the same way here in Houston with upper 90s expected here! UGH!!!

I'm also expecting upper 90s as well next week. We're all scorching!

The Big H is back for a while. I am so looking forward to the first real fall front. 50s for lows and low 80s for highs. October isn't that far away. We will be there soon.

Coincidence Fiona recurves to our east and heat comes? . Remember it isn't always the TC themselves but how they reinforce, amplify a ridge/trof configuration along with subsidence.

The forecast has numerous days of 98-99 next week. I wouldn’t surprised to see over 100. Not cool…literally.

Not much else to say here... Except unlike in August it's threatening record highs

Will say this after the late season heatwave there is a lot of model disagreements. Seems like the recurving typhoons is making for a tough forecast.

Ntxw wrote:Will say this after the late season heatwave there is a lot of model disagreements. Seems like the recurving typhoons is making for a tough forecast.

I have noticed the weather apps at least up here have a front and closer to normal by next weekend. We'll see if that holds up

The upcoming heat wave sucks but at least the lows aren't supposed to be in the 80s.

Euro still showing a front at the end of the week. GFS not so much

What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long-term rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"

weatherdude1108 wrote:What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"

Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.

Iceresistance wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"

Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.

Doea this mean (in this case) the higher positive number means likely drier?

And if the number were lower/negative number, it means likely wetter (at least for TX/OK)?

I guess the 90 day trend is more the long-term trend?

I'm guessing the latest number is bad for rain in our areas. Just educating myself. Water is a precious thing these days.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"

Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.

Does this mean (in this case) the higher positive number means likely drier?

And if the number were lower/negative number, it means likely wetter (at least for TX/OK)?

I guess the 90 day trend is more the long-term trend?

I'm guessing the latest number is bad for rain in our areas. Just educating myself. Water is a precious thing these days.

You're spot on!

It usually takes a few days before the SOI index affects us, but it does not appear to be that case this time around.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:What's the latest SOI? I know that's just one variable for looking at weather forecasts. But seems to be a decent indicator of looking at short/long rain chances for Texas based on past discussions.

All I know now is the cockroach death ridge has taken over, with record highs in jeopardy this next week or so (possibly slightly over 100 according to EWX), and it's almost October.
It's like that rainy period we had last month said, "Haha, just teasing!"

Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.

Doea this mean (in this case) the higher positive number means likely drier?

And if the number were lower/negative number, it means likely wetter (at least for TX/OK)?

I guess the 90 day trend is more the long-term trend?

I'm guessing the latest number is bad for rain in our areas. Just educating myself. Water is a precious thing these days.

SOI is an ENSO proxy. When it is consistently negative, Texas is generally in wet pattern. When consistently positive it is a dry pattern. When you get spikes either way expect a little more extreme (+30/-30 is my general rule for major spikes). When the index has a big swing one way or another then there is likely a pattern shift on the way regarding precip. This is regarding daily values.

30-90 day tells you overall El Nino or La Nina state. Positive being La Nina conditions and negative being El Nino.

September is spiking positive and staying there.

Ntxw wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:
Daily SOI is at +29.42, it was +20 yesterday.

Doea this mean (in this case) the higher positive number means likely drier?

And if the number were lower/negative number, it means likely wetter (at least for TX/OK)?

I guess the 90 day trend is more the long-term trend?

I'm guessing the latest number is bad for rain in our areas. Just educating myself. Water is a precious thing these days.

SOI is an ENSO proxy. When it is consistently negative, Texas is generally in wet pattern. When consistently positive it is a dry pattern. When you get spikes either way expect a little more extreme (+30/-30 is my general rule for major spikes). When the index has a big swing one way or another then there is likely a pattern shift on the way regarding precip. This is regarding daily values.

30-90 day tells you overall El Nino or La Nina state. Positive being La Nina conditions and negative being El Nino.

September is spiking positive and staying there.

Yeah, it's now above +30 for daily SOI.