STORM2K

Jeez! That cold already in Canada? It's their coldest already since 1989!

 https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1597051259496050689

Moderate risk along the Mississippi River from just south of Memphis to near Monroe, LA (near I-20) tomorrow


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Man, it sure sucks watching the model trends pushing that cold air off to the east/southeast and away from Texas in December.

snowballzzz wrote:Man, it sure sucks watching the model trends pushing that cold air off to the east/southeast and away from Texas in December.

From SE ridge to no SE ridge . Looks like a muddy model world.

It’s rare that this place is so quiet.

harp wrote::eek: It’s rare that this place is so quiet.

Yep. That’s when you know there’s nothing worth talking about and the weather is probably gonna suck for the next week or two.

harp wrote::eek: It’s rare that this place is so quiet.

Many, but not all, have caught up on rain. Now we just wait until real winter arrives. We need some fantasy long range snow maps to keep us alert.

harp wrote: It’s rare that this place is so quiet.

I was waiting for the 18z models to start.

The Arctic HP has trended stronger compared to 12z already!

ETA: Weaker as an offset later on.

I hope that CaptainBarbossa19 is going to be okay, this looks really nasty for Tomorrow.


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Cpv17 wrote:

harp wrote::eek: It’s rare that this place is so quiet.

Yep. That’s when you know there’s nothing worth talking about and the weather is probably gonna suck for the next week or two.

Aside from svr outbreak this week's weather will be largely boring. A couple of cold shots cutting into the warmth thru weekend but next week is when blocking develops.

The 18Z gfs definitely delivers the cold air, albeit dry. But it’s a start.

harp wrote:The 18Z gfs definitely delivers the cold air, albeit dry. But it’s a start.

Need the cold air first and with how wet it’s been lately you never know about precipitation. I’ve had nearly 8” of rain in the last two weeks. That was almost half of what I’ve had the entire year.

The MJO appears to be stalling at Phase 7


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFS.png

And what does that mean….??

harp wrote:And what does that mean….??

I think phase 7 and 8 are good for us during the winter but I know very little about the MJO.

It won't be until mid December at the earliest before we have a realistic chance at winter weather here.

Iceresistance wrote:I hope that CaptainBarbossa19 is going to be okay, this looks really nasty for Tomorrow.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Updated.gif
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Yes, it is looking rather ugly tomorrow. I will be ok though. We have a basement in our library here at State! Hopefully I will not have to use it though.

It has been a while since I posted last. I went home to Texas for Thanksgiving. To my surprise (and also not), it was very wet. When I left in August, things were much drier. I am getting ready to start finals on Friday. After Tuesday next week, I will be finished. Woohoo! I absolutely love going to school here though. It's such a great experience here in Starkville.

Cpv17 wrote:

harp wrote:And what does that mean….??

I think phase 7 and 8 are good for us during the winter but I know very little about the MJO.

Phases 7 and 8 are the Arctic Buildup Phases, after that, the air usually gets launched towards the CONUS.

Quite a few of the 06z GEFS members are showing some kind of winter storm in Texas around 8-10 days out