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Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:13 am
by dpep4
Yesterday in DFW was nice, today will be great! Gimme dat 78!

Then another nice warmup Friday for at least several days (if NWS is correct).

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:45 am
by Ntxw
The upcoming strat PV continues to be weak and looking like the weakest it will be in December in recent memory. -AO is probably a lock. I know the waiting is tough (seems like November won't end :lol) but once these things mature I think we're looking at a memorable period coming. Not just the cold, but snow as well. It's been so long stretch since real blocking has occurred in the Arctic Basin and Canadian Archipelago.

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:49 am
by Cpv17
Ntxw wrote:The upcoming strat PV continues to be weak and looking like the weakest it will be in December in recent memory. -AO is probably a lock. I know the waiting is tough (seems like November won't end :lol) but once these things mature I think we're looking at a memorable period coming. Not just the cold, but snow as well. It's been so long stretch since real blocking has occurred in the Arctic Basin and Canadian Archipelago.


It’s looking like December 7th is when our first decent front could arrive.

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:54 am
by Iceresistance
Ntxw wrote:The upcoming strat PV continues to be weak and looking like the weakest it will be in December in recent memory. -AO is probably a lock. I know the waiting is tough (seems like November won't end :lol: ) but once these things mature I think we're looking at a memorable period coming. Not just the cold, but snow as well. It's been so long stretch since real blocking has occurred in the Arctic Basin and Canadian Archipelago.


I found this on a different forum, insane -EPO on the CFS (Looks like it's the CEFS) for Mid to Late December, that is my target time for us to get nasty cold in December. This signal lasts through at least January.

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/CEFS-model.jpg

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:10 pm
by harp
Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:14 pm
by Iceresistance
harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.

The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:29 pm
by Iceresistance
PDS TORNADO WATCH likely for Louisiana and Mississippi later today, oh boy. :eek:

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:49 pm
by HockeyTx82
Iceresistance wrote:PDS TORNADO WATCH likely for Louisiana and Mississippi later today, oh boy. :eek:


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1978.html

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:26 pm
by starsfan65
Iceresistance wrote:
harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.

The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.
slowing down?

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:31 pm
by rwfromkansas
These pattern transitions usually take weeks and weeks. I'm not really worried unless it still shows no cold and it's Dec. 10 or so.

It isn't too surprising to have a period of relaxation.

I did see a picture of the cold front as it was going through Kansas. Pretty gnarly clouds with it.

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:32 pm
by Iceresistance
PDS Tornado Watch is up for Louisiana, SE Arkansas, and Mississippi. 95/90%! :eek:

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:33 pm
by Iceresistance
starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.

The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.
slowing down?

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ensplume_small-1.gif

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:02 pm
by TeamPlayersBlue
Iceresistance wrote:
harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.

The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.


Potentially a very shallow air mass. Models wont handle a shallow air mass well at all.

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:37 pm
by Brent
That warmup was short lived here... Already turning colder quickly

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:50 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. :eek: :double: I am monitoring closely the radar.

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:00 pm
by Iceresistance
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. :eek: :double: I am monitoring closely the radar.

That storm produced a tornado near I-55 earlier today. There are MississippiDOT Cameras in Starkville, MS.

Here is the link to see them
https://www.mdottraffic.com/default.aspx?showMain=true

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:24 pm
by Iceresistance
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. :eek: :double: I am monitoring closely the radar.

There is another one that has a confirmed tornado on the ground along MS-15 in Sherwood, MS
It looks like it might just miss Starkville to the north.

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:31 pm
by Texas Snowman
A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.

In the meantime, how about this?
:spam:

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155



Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:48 pm
by harp
Texas Snowman wrote:A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.

In the meantime, how about this?
:spam:
Unfortunately, that’s from almost 2 weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155?s=46&t=_o4-w-xKfga9ILh5eaPTtQ

Re: Texas Fall 2022

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:54 pm
by Texas Snowman
harp wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.

In the meantime, how about this?
:spam:
Unfortunately, that’s from almost 2 weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155?s=46&t=_o4-w-xKfga9ILh5eaPTtQ


True, which is why I should have added this from Eric Webb from earlier today… :D

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1597692778644852736