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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:20 am
by Iceresistance
Ntxw wrote:Chamber of commerce weather, great for the state fair.
FYI in a week's time average highs should be mid to upper 70s and lows mid 50s.
Also want to note that there might be a huge cooldown next week, I may see highs in the 60s! But I don't want to be excited for nothing.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:02 pm
by bubba hotep
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:26 pm
by gpsnowman
Ahhh yes. It's that time of year for the Barney colors. That would be nice.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:46 pm
by weatherdude1108
Right direction, for now.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:31 pm
by South Texas Storms
Yep, the longer range operational and ensemble guidance are beginning to trend towards a wet pattern returning during the middle part of this month. Let's hope it verifies because it's been weeks since we've seen any rain.
The temperatures have been nice and close to average lately, which has been nice.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:08 pm
by Ntxw
South Texas Storms wrote:Yep, the longer range operational and ensemble guidance are beginning to trend towards a wet pattern returning during the middle part of this month. Let's hope it verifies because it's been weeks since we've seen any rain.
The temperatures have been nice and close to average lately, which has been nice.
I'm a little skeptical about a wet pattern. I do think the fronts will provide enough lift but with much dry dew points of late and no tropical connection and SOI still stubborn, it's going to be toned back as it gets closer as the gut feeling. It is second wet season Afterall so hopefully we get something out of it.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:46 pm
by South Texas Storms
Ntxw wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:Yep, the longer range operational and ensemble guidance are beginning to trend towards a wet pattern returning during the middle part of this month. Let's hope it verifies because it's been weeks since we've seen any rain.
The temperatures have been nice and close to average lately, which has been nice.
I'm a little skeptical about a wet pattern. I do think the fronts will provide enough lift but with much dry dew points of late and no tropical connection and SOI still stubborn, it's going to be toned back as it gets closer as the gut feeling. It is second wet season Afterall so hopefully we get something out of it.
Yeah I understand your skepticism there. But I'm encouraged the models are showing some lower heights over the SW US and Mexico in about 10 days. I'm hopeful most of us can pick up at least 0.50 inch from that system. Euro Ensemble has steadily been showing increasing QPF the past few runs now.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:14 pm
by Cpv17
The CPC thinks this goes east of us.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:25 am
by Iceresistance
Great, the daily SOI is above +30 again . . .
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:49 am
by Cpv17
Iceresistance wrote:Great, the daily SOI is above +30 again . . .
Yeah and honestly I don’t really see any real fronts headed this way anytime soon. I just got through looking at the Euro and GFS and don’t really see too much in the way of cool temps headed this way.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:12 pm
by Iceresistance
12z CMC, WOW!
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:46 pm
by HockeyTx82
Iceresistance wrote:12z CMC, WOW!
Wow in what way?
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:55 pm
by Iceresistance
HockeyTx82 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:12z CMC, WOW!
Wow in what way?
May be 10 days out, but wow! Winter wants to come early!
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2m_us_41.pngAnomalies are crazy low as well
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2ma_us_41.pngAlso has snow (Yes! You heard me right!) in Western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:24 pm
by weatherdude1108
That doesn't seem possible, given our eternal stretch of warm and dry. But then again, this is the year of extremes. Went from "reasonable to ridiculous" overnight (quoting what a local friend said) back in May here. 70s to 100s. Would't surprise me if it goes from 80s to 30s.lol
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:55 pm
by Brent
The end of the Euro also looks chilly
Winter is coming
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:01 pm
by bubba hotep
It looks like the Euro might be trying to pull in some Pacific moisture after 91L crosses over.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:17 pm
by Cpv17
Well at least next week it appears we’ll have something to watch. Kinda intrigued about 91L.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:29 pm
by TropicalTundra
Euro has Texline going from low 70's to 30's and snow in just 24 hours lol.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:15 pm
by Brent
TropicalTundra wrote:Euro has Texline going from low 70's to 30's and snow in just 24 hours lol.
Well the last time we had a third year Nina it did snow here in October after September was a torch
there's so few analogs for them though
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:40 am
by Iceresistance
Daily SOI is almost at +40, good grief!