STORM2K

WGUS82 KCHS 061312
FLSCHS
SCC019-061500-

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2003

...STEADY RAINS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS MORNING...

REPORTS FROM LOCAL OBSERVERS AND ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR SHOW
UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF CHARLESTON COUNTY SINCE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...LAST NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH IN
60 MINUTES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM
YONGES ISLAND AND FOLLY BEACH...TO MCCLELLANVILLE AND SOUTH SANTEE.
THIS INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF FLOODING PROBLEMS...THE
ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS...LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS.

HOWEVER...SINCE WE ARE APPROACHING A LOW TIDE...CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE FURTHER COMPLETED IF WE WERE INSTEAD APPROACHING A HIGH TIDE.

PLEASE REMEMBER TO NEVER DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. GET
TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING OCCURS IN YOUR AREA. PLEASE REPORT ANY
FLOODING...NO MATTER HOW MINOR YOU BELIEVE IT MAY BE...TO LOCAL
POLICE OR COUNTY OFFICIALS...AND ASK THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT ON TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON.

$$

PM

CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FURTHER COMPLETED

Nice typo. Anyway, stay safe, warm, and dry today.

Joshua21Young wrote:CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FURTHER COMPLETED

Nice typo. Anyway, stay safe, warm, and dry today.

LOL --- I didn't even notice that one!...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
225 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2003

.PUBLIC...
T.D. HENRI STILL THE MAIN FEATURE THRU THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE CENTER NOW HAS CROSSED OVER FL INTO THE ATLC. FCSTS
CALL FOR IT TO REDEVELOP INTO A T.S...BUT QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO
WHEN AND WHERE. ETA TRACK CONTINUES ITS COASTAL PATH WHILE GFS
CONTINUES ITS OFFSHORE PATH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF THE TWO WOULD SEEM
TO WORK BEST BUT ALSO COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE FORMATION OF A JET
STREAK ON THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THAT WOULD PUT MY CWFA IN THE
RRQ AND THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF H5 LOW OVER THE E TN MTNS. WILL
NEED TO SEE WHAT THE TPC WANTS TO DO WITH ALL THIS...BUT SINCE THE
PREVAILING MODEL HAS BEEN WITH THE GFS...I WILL TREND MY ZONES IN
THAT DIRECTION AND MAKE OTHER CHANGES AS NEEDED.

.DAY TO DAY HIGHLIGHTS...
.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...XPCT LIGHT TO MOD RAIN TO PERSIST MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF MY AREA THRU TNT INTO TMRW AS HENRI MOVES ALONG
THE OUTER EDGES OF OUR MARINE ZONES. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ALONG
COAST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...THEN TREND LESS GOING INLAND AND
SOUTH. WILL ONLY HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MY NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES
TONIGHT THEN TREND BACK TO HIGH CHC FOR MY NW GA ZONES. DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF HENRI AND THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/GRADIENT TO THE NORTH...MAY HAVE MORE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST TRENDING TO CHANCE
SOUTHWEST.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE...BUT NOW
THE JET/UPR LOW MAY TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER EXITING HENRI. GFS SHOWS
THE JET/H5 LOW BEST AND SEEING AS HOW IT HAS BEEN THE MODEL OF
PREFERENCE I DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DISPUTE IT. MINOR SHTWVS SENT
AROUND THE LOW WILL HAVE ME KEEP CHC POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR SLGT
CHC POPS WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR SAME REASONING...WILL KEEP CHC POPS
NORTHEAST MONDAY...SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF MY CWFA...THEN
CARRY /SILENT/ 10 POPS FOR THE WESTERN 1/3 OF MY AREA.

.QPFS...THIS HAS BEEN THE MAJOR ISSUE THUS FAR. REPORTS HAVE COME IN
FROM SPOTTERS RANGING FROM 4-9" WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST. DESPITE THE HIGH AMOUNTS...NO WIDESPREAD NOR PERPETUAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
AND JUST HANDLE WITH FLOOD STATEMENTS AS NEEDED. OF CONCERN IS THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TMRW
EVENING...SO LIKELY GO FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING. BEST ESTIMATES
WOULD BE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-4" THRU SUN NIGHT...HIGHEST NE/ALONG
COAST THEN TRENDING DOWN GOING SW.

.EXTENDED...AM NOT INCLINED TO INCLUDE POPS OUTSIDE OF /SILENT/ 10
POPS WITH SFC HIGH PRES COMING IN FROM THE NW AND ANY UPR LVL LOWS
BEING ABSORBED INTO A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW.

.MARINE...
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SUN AS THE FCST CENTER OF HENRI MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
CWA...WHICH IS STILL SOME 150 TO 175 MILES OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN
SCA...AND ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR SC.
DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN UP TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
VALUES...WITH THE HIGHER TIDE ARRIVING THIS EVE. LOOKING FOR TIDE
LEVELS TO REACH AROUND 7.3 FT MLLW IN CHS DURING THE UPCOMING HIGH
TIDE.

WILL ALSO MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH RECENT REPORTS OF UP TO 8
FT SEAS OFF CHS AND NEAR 7 FT OFF SAV. SEAS AT 41008 ARE ACTUALLY
RISING AND NOW UP ABOVE 6 FT. PLUS...IN THE EVENT THAT HENRI
STRENGTHENS FURTHER...PREFER TO LEAVE HIGH SURF UP UNTIL A MORE
DOWNWARD TREND IS NOTICED.

WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE ANY WINDS LOWER THAN 15 KT THROUGH WED...AS
HIGH PRES TO THE N MAINTAINS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY FAR FROM WNA GUIDANCE REGARDING SEAS.

WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN MAY STILL REACH
CLOSE TO 34 OR 35 KT...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION...BUT BASED
ON 15Z FCST TRACK OF HENRI...RADII OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED
WINDS TO REMAIN WELL E OF THE FCST AREA.

.CHS...
GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY AMZ354-GAZ117-119-139-141.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ354-354.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY AMZ330-350-352-SCZ048>051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-350-352.
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS EVE
AMZ330-350-352-SCZ048>051

$$

JPC/PM

Sure as hell wish the nws up here in Cleveland,OH would give these kind of great discussions!

Anyways the radar right now doesnt look to bad down there but i suspect may change especially if Henri continues to flare up and or track a bit closer to the coast there which from reading your statement the models are not in agreement..................To bad this isnt January or you could be dealing with a decent snowstorm possibly................