Texas Spring 2023

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Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#581 Postby Edwards Limestone » Fri Mar 24, 2023 11:53 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:1.35” yesterday/last night.
4.42” for the month so far.
7.70” for the year so far.
I don’t know if we even got 7” of rain for the majority of 2022. If we did it definitely didn’t seem like it.


I’m waiting for the rain to shift south. I’ve only had about 1.5” in the past 6 weeks.


Same here. We got our customary 0.1" of drizzle/showers this AM with the frontal passage. This pattern sucks and I'm over it.

I just keep telling myself better days are coming for us south and west of I-45. C'mon El Nino, do the thing.
Last edited by Edwards Limestone on Fri Mar 24, 2023 11:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#582 Postby bohai » Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:51 pm

A big 0.03" in Comfort 50 miles NW of San Antonio. Still listed as exceptional drought.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#583 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Mar 25, 2023 10:53 am

Horrible night last night in Mississippi
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#584 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Mar 25, 2023 1:36 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Horrible night last night in Mississippi


It’ll be your turn and DFW’s turn on Thursday but hopefully not to that severity.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#585 Postby Brent » Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Horrible night last night in Mississippi


No surprise but already rated ef4

I knew when I saw that radar last night it was gonna be ugly. There are tornado warnings and then there's those signatures...
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#586 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:47 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#587 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:23 pm

The CAPE, Supercell Composite, and Bulk Shear are higher than expected, this is going to be nasty down there.

Even the Low-Level Lapse rates are higher than expected, but not by much.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#588 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:32 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The CAPE, Supercell Composite, and Bulk Shear are higher than expected, this is going to be nasty down there.

Even the Low-Level Lapse rates are higher than expected, but not by much.


Definitely looking like discrete supercells are forming. Dewpoints are very high behind the warm front. This is not good at all.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#589 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:35 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The CAPE, Supercell Composite, and Bulk Shear are higher than expected, this is going to be nasty down there.

Even the Low-Level Lapse rates are higher than expected, but not by much.


Definitely looking like discrete supercells are forming. Dewpoints are very high behind the warm front. This is not good at all.

Yeah, the one near Kirbyville is looking really mean.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#590 Postby 869MB » Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:36 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#591 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Mar 26, 2023 5:42 pm

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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#592 Postby 869MB » Sun Mar 26, 2023 7:40 pm

Iceresistance wrote:

Fixed the Tweet


Thanks. How exactly did you do that? I tried, but it didn’t display like I wanted.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#593 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Mar 26, 2023 7:42 pm

869MB wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:

Fixed the Tweet


Thanks. How exactly did you do that? I tried, but it didn’t display like I wanted.

The "{Tweet}{/Tweet}" function (They're brackets [])
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Texas Spring 2023

#594 Postby jasons2k » Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:27 am

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this evening into Tuesday morning.

A slow moving frontal boundary will approach from the north today, while a weak diffuse boundary over the NW Gulf of Mexico backs northward toward the I-10 corridor. Fog and low clouds will slowly lift and break through the morning hours allowing solar insolation to push temperatures into the low to mid 80’s by mid afternoon. Air mass will become increasingly unstable through the afternoon hours as the weak front approaches from the north. Additionally, a weak upper level disturbance will move out of NC MX and across SC TX this afternoon and into SE TX this evening helping to aid lift along the front.

High resolution models show thunderstorms developing along the frontal boundary either side of the I-10 corridor early to mid this evening and lingering into much of the overnight hours while moving toward Galveston Bay and eventually the coast and Gulf waters. Given the instability that will be in place, a few of these storms could become severe with large hail being the primary threat. SPC has outlooked the entire area in a “marginal” (1 out of 5) threat for severe weather. Moisture levels will also be plentiful and given the slow moving nature of the front, some heavy rainfall will be possible. Overall, think activity will progress to the east and south fast enough to keep any urban flooding concerns to a minimum. WPC does have all of the area outlooked in “marginal” risk for flash flooding. Overall rainfall amounts of .25-.75 of an inch will be possible, with isolated higher totals under any cell training of 1-3 inches in a few hours.

Front and majority of the heavier activity will move into the coastal waters Tuesday morning, but messy upper level flow out of the SW will likely maintain mid and upper level moisture stream across the top of the “cooler” air mass with lingering clouds. Another disturbance will approach late Tuesday into early Wednesday and may produce a few showers near Matagorda Bay, but will have to see exactly how much low level dry air moves into the area on Tuesday to determine if rain chances may need to be increased slightly and further northward early Wednesday.

Late week will feature a return to increasing southerly winds, warm, and muggy conditions as the next strong storm system approaches the US central plains. It appears that this system will pass well north of SE TX, but the tail end of the front may reach the area Friday into Saturday with isolated to scattered showers.

Severe Weather Outlook (Today):
Image

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#595 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Mar 27, 2023 1:25 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#596 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Mar 27, 2023 3:26 pm

Thunderstorms have developed over the Edwards Plateau and moving east!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#597 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:19 pm

Got a little rain here with some minor TL. Southern DFW looks like a target for this rain event.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#598 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:53 pm

This place is dead considering there could be a major severe outbreak in a few days.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#599 Postby Brent » Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:23 pm

Cpv17 wrote:This place is dead considering there could be a major severe outbreak in a few days.


Don't seem overly concerned here at the moment. More talk about the "heat wave" next week on TV tonight(which doesn't look that bad right now)
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#600 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:30 am

Cpv17 wrote:This place is dead considering there could be a major severe outbreak in a few days.

Except the outbreak is not going to be focused in the Southern Plains.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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