Texas Spring 2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#501 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 16, 2023 10:13 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Yeesh, got the whole trifecta today in Dallas. Wind, hail, and at least a funnel. If the circulation in Irving gets ground confirmation that’ll be my 5th observed tornado

The Funnel in Fort Worth is a confirmed tornado.

The circulation in Irving completely collapsed with the storm east of Dallas

The circulation in Irving had a defined funnel, and I caught its dissipation on video (albeit not great quality). I’ll see if I can figure out how to upload the video tomorrow. Didn’t look like it was even close to the ground, but I saw this tweet showing damage to a car dealership in Irving that seems quite a bit more significant than the attendant marginally severe straightline winds would cause. If this is a result of a tornado, I imagine it was very brief like the ft worth tornado.

https://twitter.com/lilrichienews/statu ... WoEo-mboaQ

Would it be okay to try to upload it to YouTube or something in that manner?
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#502 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 16, 2023 10:14 pm

Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
El Nino is coming. Very wet spring likely. The process of building one is sometimes more prominent than matured. Periods of change.


Your neighbors across south and central Texas sure hope so. We're still suffering from an extremely dry year last year. Unfortunately this year hasn't been much better as most areas are already running a rainfall deficit in 2023.


Yeah quite stubborn down there! I'm not sure if the next 2-3 months will erase but long term seasonal forecasts from EC/CFS/Cansips suggest Aug-Nov will be very much above normal precip for much of Texas. Think we'll make a good dent then for sure.

The Drought is already basically gone here, but in Central and Western Kansas and NW Oklahoma, it's going to take a while longer for it to go away there.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#503 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 16, 2023 10:36 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Your neighbors across south and central Texas sure hope so. We're still suffering from an extremely dry year last year. Unfortunately this year hasn't been much better as most areas are already running a rainfall deficit in 2023.


Yeah quite stubborn down there! I'm not sure if the next 2-3 months will erase but long term seasonal forecasts from EC/CFS/Cansips suggest Aug-Nov will be very much above normal precip for much of Texas. Think we'll make a good dent then for sure.

The Drought is already basically gone here, but in Central and Western Kansas and NW Oklahoma, it's going to take a while longer for it to go away there.


Yeah we're still having a problem where the heaviest rain is basically near or east of here... Very little west. It's so different going towards Arkansas than going towards 35. Seems like towards Arkansas has a flood watch every event now and it barely rains towards Ponca City
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#504 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:26 pm

Outflow boundary starting to make its way through. Hopefully we get a decent amount of rain from this thing overnight.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#505 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:42 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Outflow boundary starting to make its way through. Hopefully we get a decent amount of rain from this thing overnight.


That's the actual front and so once that moves through the severe weather threat is over. Hopefully we get some elevated activity to form behind it. Rain in any form is good obviously and if we can get it without the severe stuff that's even better.
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Texas Spring 2023

#506 Postby jasons2k » Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:44 pm

Storms coming to SE Texas!

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#507 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:52 pm

Same old story down here in the SE Hill Country. Outflow boundary robber.

Hard to take the rainfall forecasts seriously after so many failures over the past year. I really think the models struggle in SW TX in particular due to lack of sounding data maybe?

Truly a state of north and south extremes right now. At least someone is getting rain.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#508 Postby Edwards Limestone » Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:17 am

SA proper getting hammered. Congrats guys!

We are still in stage 4 drought up here, doesn’t want to let go.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#509 Postby Edwards Limestone » Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:33 am

Did the line just do a 180? Now heading NNE towards me?
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#510 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:22 am

Down in the big deer Brush Country…

—————-

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
119 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

TXC127-507-170645-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230317T0645Z/
Dimmit TX-Zavala TX-
119 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN DIMMIT AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZAVALA COUNTIES...

At 118 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes
were located along a line extending from 6 miles east of Chula
Vista-River Spur to near Brundage to near Asherton, moving east at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Crystal City, Carrizo Springs, Big Wells, Asherton, Las Colonias,
Winter Haven, Chula Vista-River Spur, Brundage, Carrizo Hill and Las
Vegas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2871 9956 2857 9947 2842 9944 2835 9949
2845 9995 2861 9987 2880 9988
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 288DEG 43KT 2869 9971 2857 9971 2848 9975

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#511 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Mar 17, 2023 8:43 am

Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yeah quite stubborn down there! I'm not sure if the next 2-3 months will erase but long term seasonal forecasts from EC/CFS/Cansips suggest Aug-Nov will be very much above normal precip for much of Texas. Think we'll make a good dent then for sure.

The Drought is already basically gone here, but in Central and Western Kansas and NW Oklahoma, it's going to take a while longer for it to go away there.


Yeah we're still having a problem where the heaviest rain is basically near or east of here... Very little west. It's so different going towards Arkansas than going towards 35. Seems like towards Arkansas has a flood watch every event now and it barely rains towards Ponca City

The I-44 Deflector Force Field, even the Mesonet Ticker is aware of that problem.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#512 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:17 am

I heard the storms move through around 2am-3am here in Houston. Too cold to go out and check the rain gauge, but it looks like around 1.5" of rainfall. That will help wash off some of the oak pollen.

Soon, severe weather season will end and we have the nice warm days of summer. Such a pretty map with lots of orange colors.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#513 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Mar 17, 2023 9:59 am

wxman57 wrote:I heard the storms move through around 2am-3am here in Houston. Too cold to go out and check the rain gauge, but it looks like around 1.5" of rainfall. That will help wash off some of the oak pollen.

Soon, severe weather season will end and we have the nice warm days of summer. Such a pretty map with lots of orange colors.

http://wxman57.com/images/summer.jpg


Such a nice day to get outside and go on a long bike ride. Houston won't be reaching the 60s until Tuesday afternoon. Nice spring weather!
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#514 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Mar 17, 2023 10:04 am

Has anyone noticed the 6 day -SOI streak? :D
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#515 Postby Edwards Limestone » Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:01 pm

Some good rain in SA but unfortunately not in the Hill Country (including my house in the dark maroon in Comal County). Maybe our luck will change soon.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#516 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:19 pm

Freeze on tap for the next two nights/mornings.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#517 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:45 pm

HRRR remains the most bullish on seeing a rain/snow mix overnight down into the southern HC and Edwards Plateau region. Trying to sneak some snow/sleet into far NW Bexar County where elevation is a bit higher than SA proper.

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#518 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:56 pm

There was a confirmed EF-1 tornado in Irving, TX

CheezyWxGuy, you did see another tornado.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#519 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 17, 2023 2:00 pm

Yes the Irving tornado was EF1 which had started in northern Grand Prairie. It looks like from the pictures it was mostly just south of 183. This is a little southeast of DFW airport for those familiar.

This is the 2nd or 3rd strike not far from the big airport the past few years.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#520 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Mar 17, 2023 6:44 pm

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