Texas Spring 2023

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1361 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri May 19, 2023 9:04 pm

Some development on the front now with the outflow collision but sadly not impressive.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1362 Postby Cpv17 » Fri May 19, 2023 9:09 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Some development on the front now with the outflow collision but sadly not impressive.


I wouldn’t really expect much rain up in DFW anytime soon. Models don’t show much happening & neither does the CPC. Don’t get your hopes up.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1363 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 20, 2023 10:21 am

If you are in North Texas, get outside! What an amazing spring day.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1364 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 20, 2023 10:24 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Next week could be problematic.


For who? Definitely not my area. Southeast Texas looks like a huge snooze fest for the next 2-3 weeks.

Oklahoma and parts of Texas, even then, it's not a very strong Supercell signal on the ensembles but it's there.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1365 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat May 20, 2023 11:57 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Next week could be problematic.


For who? Definitely not my area. Southeast Texas looks like a huge snooze fest for the next 2-3 weeks.

Oklahoma and parts of Texas, even then, it's not a very strong Supercell signal on the ensembles but it's there.

Eh I'm not really seeing much for this week. There will probably be a western trough around Memorial Day, but there could also be an East Coast low that restricts moisture return. Overall severe potential looks pretty low for a while imo.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1366 Postby DallasAg » Sat May 20, 2023 1:50 pm

bubba hotep wrote:If you are in North Texas, get outside! What an amazing spring day.

I'm assuming the haze we're seeing today is remnant smoke from the Canadian fires? Too breezy for local air pollution. Temps and humidity for late May are really unbelievably good. Such an improvement from this time last year when we were basically waiting out the inevitable.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1367 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 20, 2023 5:16 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
For who? Definitely not my area. Southeast Texas looks like a huge snooze fest for the next 2-3 weeks.

Oklahoma and parts of Texas, even then, it's not a very strong Supercell signal on the ensembles but it's there.

Eh I'm not really seeing much for this week. There will probably be a western trough around Memorial Day, but there could also be an East Coast low that restricts moisture return. Overall severe potential looks pretty low for a while imo.

If it is too far east, it does not matter on moisture return.

If the trough is like in Mississippi or Florida, it could interfere with moisture return, but not like the Carolinas to New York.

Unfavorable wind shear? Yes

EDIT: Never mind, the Gulf of Mexico is colder than normal.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1368 Postby Cpv17 » Sat May 20, 2023 6:29 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Oklahoma and parts of Texas, even then, it's not a very strong Supercell signal on the ensembles but it's there.

Eh I'm not really seeing much for this week. There will probably be a western trough around Memorial Day, but there could also be an East Coast low that restricts moisture return. Overall severe potential looks pretty low for a while imo.

If it is too far east, it does not matter on moisture return.

If the trough is like in Mississippi or Florida, it could interfere with moisture return, but not like the Carolinas to New York.

Unfavorable wind shear? Yes

EDIT: Never mind, the Gulf of Mexico is colder than normal.


On Tropical Tidbits it shows the SST’s in the Gulf above normal. A good bit above normal at that.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1369 Postby Brent » Sat May 20, 2023 8:36 pm

DallasAg wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:If you are in North Texas, get outside! What an amazing spring day.

I'm assuming the haze we're seeing today is remnant smoke from the Canadian fires? Too breezy for local air pollution. Temps and humidity for late May are really unbelievably good. Such an improvement from this time last year when we were basically waiting out the inevitable.


The only thing is its killing my allergies right now... I mean they flared up at lunch then i was fine at home and then after a half hour out it's like back again. Even the Allegra isn't stopping it

I'm heading back east for a trip Wednesday to see my parents so maybe they'll clear up there :spam:
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1370 Postby Iceresistance » Sun May 21, 2023 11:04 am

Ensembles have a SE Trough, but SW Flow from a ridge from the GoM for the next several days.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1371 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun May 21, 2023 2:19 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1372 Postby cstrunk » Sun May 21, 2023 4:31 pm

Pretty strong smokey smell in the air. I believe it's from the Canadian wildfires.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1373 Postby cstrunk » Mon May 22, 2023 7:58 am

While this week looks to be pretty dry for most of Texas (besides NW TX and the panhandle), at least portions of the Great Plains that really need it are getting some rain. Hopefully it returns to the rest of us in June.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1374 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 22, 2023 9:40 am

I've been trying to wish storms farther SE into DFW over the next couple of days, and now the 12z models seem to be trying to grant my wish lol
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1375 Postby Iceresistance » Mon May 22, 2023 11:18 am

cstrunk wrote:Pretty strong smokey smell in the air. I believe it's from the Canadian wildfires.

The Sunset was hazy last night
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1376 Postby aggiecutter » Mon May 22, 2023 1:00 pm

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist
1d
·
The end-of-May into early June pattern is as textbook new El Nino with remnant cold PDO/warm NPO from previous La Nina regime, one that favors day-after-day severe weather and beneficial rains for the southern Plains, including the southern High Plains. Storm season is just getting started. I typically hedge my analyses of long-range models with a solid foundational knowledge of the Pacific Climate System. Never stop chasing
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1377 Postby Itryatgolf » Mon May 22, 2023 7:08 pm



This is just imo, but we should hope and pray the niño is central based and a semblance of a -qbo. Where waters set in the pacific is a good sign of what may happen
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1378 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon May 22, 2023 10:26 pm

Not Texas, but I think we all remember this day in 2011. This footage appeared on YouTube this morning. Sobering stuff…

 https://twitter.com/nickkrasz_wx/status/1660666637790396417


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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1379 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue May 23, 2023 5:32 am

[quote="Texas Snowman"]Not Texas, but I think we all remember this day in 2011. This footage appeared on YouTube this morning. Sobering stuff…

[url]https://twitter.com/nickkrasz_wx/status/1660666637790396417?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg[/url][/quote]

My stepfather is from there. His mom was in that nursing home that took a direct hit. She survived. She passed a few years later. His house he grew up in was destroyed. Very sobering footage.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#1380 Postby Iceresistance » Tue May 23, 2023 9:16 am

Holy -SOI! I would never imagine a daily SOI below -50!

Image
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-05-23-9.14.11-AM.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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