Texas Spring 2023

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Texas Snowman
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Texas Spring 2023

#1 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 16, 2023 9:29 am

A new meteorological season is approaching here in Texas. Hopefully not too much severe weather, but a good amount of beneficial rain. And maybe even a late winter surprise or two…
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#2 Postby cstrunk » Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:08 pm

Winter disappointed me in Longview, but my favorite time of year is quickly approaching... Spring! I'm a severe weather enthusiast so bring on the spring storms!

March temperatures look above average... hopefully we don't see an early summer and can enjoy spring for a few months.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#3 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 20, 2023 3:17 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#4 Postby 869MB » Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:15 pm

Hopefully, this Spring brings better rain chances for South Central and Southeast TX with the La Nina slowly losing its grip as the year progresses (I'm not nearly as concerned with rain chances in North and NW TX). As a result, the SOI should hopefully trend consistently near 0 and eventually trend consistently negative due to more WWB (Westerly Wind Bursts) in the Nino 3.4 as compared to the strong EWB (Easterly Wind Bursts) of the past few years. The SOI hasn't been consistently near 0 since May 1, 2020 (2.57) and consistently negative since December 1, 2019 (-6.72). https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/monthly-graphs/

More importantly, if long-range forecasts are to be believed, a Neutral ENSO trending toward El Nino later this year should lead to a more Positive PDO-looking orientation in the Pacific as compared to the well-defined Negative PDO orientation of the past few years. Though we still may officially be in a Negative or Cool Phase of the PDO, we can still get positive spikes or Warm-looking Phases of the PDO which would theoretically lead to overall better rain chances over Texas and the Southern Plains in conjunction with a more active southern jet stream. A 'Super El Nino', as some have been predicting to develop later this year, may help our cause in trending the PDO warmer even if temporarily for a year or so. I'm kinda hoping this recent anomalous cool 3-year La Nina serves as the peak of this current Negative or Cool Phase PDO we have been experiencing since around 2008 or so and we eventually trend to an official Positive or Warm Phase PDO again in a few years.

All in all, I'm hopeful for a more promising long-range weather pattern with more consistent rainfall accumulations for our regions despite these trends not showing up in short or medium-forecast modeling as of this time. We shall see what not only Spring but also Summer and Fall bring as a result of these forecasted ENSO changes later this year.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#5 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:57 pm

869MB wrote:Hopefully, this Spring brings better rain chances for South Central and Southeast TX with the La Nina slowly losing its grip as the year progresses (I'm not nearly as concerned with rain chances in North and NW TX). As a result, the SOI should hopefully trend consistently near 0 and eventually trend consistently negative due to more WWB (Westerly Wind Bursts) in the Nino 3.4 as compared to the strong EWB (Easterly Wind Bursts) of the past few years. The SOI hasn't been consistently near 0 since May 1, 2020 (2.57) and consistently negative since December 1, 2019 (-6.72). https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/monthly-graphs/

More importantly, if long-range forecasts are to be believed, a Neutral ENSO trending toward El Nino later this year should lead to a more Positive PDO-looking orientation in the Pacific as compared to the well-defined Negative PDO orientation of the past few years. Though we still may officially be in a Negative or Cool Phase of the PDO, we can still get positive spikes or Warm-looking Phases of the PDO which would theoretically lead to overall better rain chances over Texas and the Southern Plains in conjunction with a more active southern jet stream. A 'Super El Nino', as some have been predicting to develop later this year, may help our cause in trending the PDO warmer even if temporarily for a year or so. I'm kinda hoping this recent anomalous cool 3-year La Nina serves as the peak of this current Negative or Cool Phase PDO we have been experiencing since around 2008 or so and we eventually trend to an official Positive or Warm Phase PDO again in a few years.

All in all, I'm hopeful for a more promising long-range weather pattern with more consistent rainfall accumulations for our regions despite these trends not showing up in short or medium-forecast modeling as of this time. We shall see what not only Spring but also Summer and Fall bring as a result of these forecasted ENSO changes later this year.


Yeah I'm optimistic we'll trend wetter as we head through the year with El Nino likely returning. It sure would be nice for the state to be drought free again as we head into 2024!
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:47 pm

Here is the latest drought map of the state that is updated every thursdays with the stats.

Image

Image

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?TX
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#7 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:19 am

cycloneye wrote:Here is the latest drought map of the state that is updated every thursdays with the stats.

https://i.imgur.com/jLRnlzE.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/gaScwuE.jpg

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?TX


It's crazy how persistent that small area of exceptional drought has been in South Central Texas.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#8 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 24, 2023 6:31 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#9 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 24, 2023 7:44 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#10 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:34 pm

Apps are definitely on the cold side for March and I will say they were way too warm the last couple days a week or so ago :lol: we shall see but I'll be shocked if we don't at least see a snowstorm threat here. The last couple days have proved that winter definitely isn't over

Lol right as I said that the 0z GFS has some snow into North Texas early Friday :lol: :spam:
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#11 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 25, 2023 12:19 am

Cpv17 wrote:


We’ll see about that.


There is broad support for it and we will probably see it trend colder. Longest below normal stretch of winter will be in March lol
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#12 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 25, 2023 4:35 pm

Who ordered up this Spring weather?

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#13 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:26 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Who ordered up this Spring weather?

https://i.ibb.co/jTN22vR/022523.png


Like Ntxw said, this should’ve came a month earlier.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#14 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:56 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Who ordered up this Spring weather?

https://i.ibb.co/jTN22vR/022523.png


Yeah our TV met just mentioned it too

It's a shame we wasted February but we're not dead up here yet for sure although I might laugh if our best snowstorm is in March :lol:
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#15 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:06 am

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Who ordered up this Spring weather?

https://i.ibb.co/jTN22vR/022523.png


Yeah our TV met just mentioned it too

It's a shame we wasted February but we're not dead up here yet for sure although I might laugh if our best snowstorm is in March :lol:


Hell as far north as you live, it can probably still snow there in April lol
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#16 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 26, 2023 1:20 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Who ordered up this Spring weather?

https://i.ibb.co/jTN22vR/022523.png


Yeah our TV met just mentioned it too

It's a shame we wasted February but we're not dead up here yet for sure although I might laugh if our best snowstorm is in March :lol:


Hell as far north as you live, it can probably still snow there in April lol


Haha it's actually snowed in May before :lol:

It's just weird that February would come up with nothing. I mean I haven't even seen a flake this month
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#17 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:56 am

Concerned about the potential for another severe weather outbreak on Thursday focused further south into parts of Texas this time. Models look to be trending slower today with the approaching system/trough ejecting out from the west on Thursday. Ample shear (NAM parameters/soundings 84 hours out look insane already) along with the classic spring clash of airmasses across the state likely to be in place. Obviously other factors need to be considered as we get closer, but definitely something to keep an eye on going forward this week.
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#18 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Feb 27, 2023 1:26 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Concerned about the potential for another severe weather outbreak on Thursday focused further south into parts of Texas this time. Models look to be trending slower today with the approaching system/trough ejecting out from the west on Thursday. Ample shear (NAM parameters/soundings 84 hours out look insane already) along with the classic spring clash of airmasses across the state likely to be in place. Obviously other factors need to be considered as we get closer, but definitely something to keep an eye on going forward this week.

Agreed, my eyes have been glued to this since the SPC started highlighting it. If the nam timing is right, most of central and eastern Texas will be in the thick of this, along with points east of course
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 27, 2023 1:46 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Concerned about the potential for another severe weather outbreak on Thursday focused further south into parts of Texas this time. Models look to be trending slower today with the approaching system/trough ejecting out from the west on Thursday. Ample shear (NAM parameters/soundings 84 hours out look insane already) along with the classic spring clash of airmasses across the state likely to be in place. Obviously other factors need to be considered as we get closer, but definitely something to keep an eye on going forward this week.

Agreed, my eyes have been glued to this since the SPC started highlighting it. If the nam timing is right, most of central and eastern Texas will be in the thick of this, along with points east of course

The 12z NAM timing also has me under this, it tries to have Last Night for me all over again!
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Re: Texas Spring 2023

#20 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:23 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Concerned about the potential for another severe weather outbreak on Thursday focused further south into parts of Texas this time. Models look to be trending slower today with the approaching system/trough ejecting out from the west on Thursday. Ample shear (NAM parameters/soundings 84 hours out look insane already) along with the classic spring clash of airmasses across the state likely to be in place. Obviously other factors need to be considered as we get closer, but definitely something to keep an eye on going forward this week.

Agreed, my eyes have been glued to this since the SPC started highlighting it. If the nam timing is right, most of central and eastern Texas will be in the thick of this, along with points east of course

The 12z NAM timing also has me under this, it tries to have Last Night for me all over again!

As of right now it’s definitely an outlier with regard to timing. We’ll need at least another of day of runs to start piecing together trends though, as we’re basically still out in the nam’s la-la land
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