Texas Spring 2023

[HockeyTx82]

True, that second batch could be the ones to watch. A lot of area sw didn’t get first round so more primed still. Some models showed a bigger round later around 6-8.

Yea, if this ends up being it then it will be a pretty big bust b/c I've only seen a couple of smaller hail reports so far.

No hail here, got .07 inches of rain.

I'm fine with a bust.

What are the chances that this round for the NNW of DFW stabilized things?

[bubba hotep]

True, that second batch could be the ones to watch. A lot of area sw didn’t get first round so more primed still. Some models showed a bigger round later around 6-8.

Yea, if this ends up being it then it will be a pretty big bust b/c I've only seen a couple of smaller hail reports so far.

No hail here, got .07 inches of rain.

I'm fine with a bust.

What are thr chances that this round for the NNW of DFW stabilized things?

This first batch of storms barely met svr warning criteria. They may have also been elevated, so I don't think the atmosphere was really worked over much. So those storms out west could be a major concern.

[txtwister78]

Storm moving into Erath County (Stephenville area) is continuing to go build and has now gone severe. I think that's probably the one to watch for giant hail/tornado threat in the near term.

[bubba hotep]

Storm moving into Erath County (Stephenville area) is continuing to go build and has now gone severe. I think that's probably the one to watch for giant hail/tornado threat in the near term.

That cell should stay well south of DFW proper. The cell out in Young County could be trouble.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Warning near Marlin, TX

[Iceresistance]

Storm moving into Erath County (Stephenville area) is continuing to go build and has now gone severe. I think that's probably the one to watch for giant hail/tornado threat in the near term.

That cell should stay well south of DFW proper. The cell out in Young County could be trouble.

The Supercell east of Gorman, TX has a solid couplet.

[Ntxw]

Spc meso analysis for params wasn't uniquely high earlier north of I-20. To the south you have some more significant values but more isolated in nature.

[Texas Snowman]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
528 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023


TXC293-022245-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230402T2245Z/
Limestone TX-
528 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY...

At 526 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 12 miles north of
Bremond, or 14 miles southwest of Groesbeck, moving northeast at 35
mph. The tornado was located on Highway 14 near Kosse at 5:24 PM.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Thornton and Kosse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter now! Get to an interior room on the lowest floor
of a sturdy building and avoid windows.

[bubba hotep]

Cell cluster just west of DFW looks to be getting better organized. Mergers into a supercell could be on deck.

[dpep4]

Storm southeast of Phtevenville may be ramping up. Plenty of chasers to let us know when it drops.

[bubba hotep]

There must be some subsidence behind that first wave of storms b/c, despite a favorable environment, the 2nd batch of storms continues to struggle.

[HockeyTx82]

There must be some subsidence behind that first wave of storms b/c, despite a favorable environment, the 2nd batch of storms continues to struggle.

It was looking promising coming toward me and it fizzled out.

Great rainbow to my east, rain and sunny

[HockeyTx82]

Yea, if this ends up being it then it will be a pretty big bust b/c I've only seen a couple of smaller hail reports so far.

No hail here, got .07 inches of rain.

I'm fine with a bust.

What are thr chances that this round for the NNW of DFW stabilized things?

This first batch of storms barely met svr warning criteria. They may have also been elevated, so I don't think the atmosphere was really worked over much. So those storms out west could be a major concern.

I was with you on this but maybe they did just enough?

[txtwister78]

Dangerous looking supercell with possible developing Tornado approaching Ft. Hood and Killeen

[txtwister78]

Dangerous looking supercell with possible developing Tornado approaching Ft. Hood and Killeen

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1642682516527288321

[rwfromkansas]

Well we have several visitors so glad they didn’t get hail damage.

But, after these events the NWS needs to do an autopsy explaining what went “wrong.”

[horns0314]

Well we have several visitors so glad they didn’t get hail damage.

But, after these events the NWS needs to do an autopsy explaining what went “wrong.”

Not sure what you mean. There have been several tornado warnings this afternoon.

[HockeyTx82]

Well we have several visitors so glad they didn’t get hail damage.

But, after these events the NWS needs to do an autopsy explaining what went “wrong.”

Not sure what you mean. There have been several tornado warnings this afternoon.

I think he’s referring to that fact that hatched areas and enhanced area did not play out and the worst of it is further south.

[rwfromkansas]

Well we have several visitors so glad they didn’t get hail damage.

But, after these events the NWS needs to do an autopsy explaining what went “wrong.”

Not sure what you mean. There have been several tornado warnings this afternoon.

I’m focusing on the enhanced area. There have been some south, yes.

[txtwister78]

Well we have several visitors so glad they didn’t get hail damage.

But, after these events the NWS needs to do an autopsy explaining what went “wrong.”

Not sure what you mean. There have been several tornado warnings this afternoon.

I’m focusing on the enhanced area. There have been some south, yes.

Storms were more consolidated/clustered across the DFW metro earlier today and so as a result those robbed each other a bit of energy/inflow. I also think timing played a role today. By the time the LLJ was maximized, the earlier activity across DFW stabilized the atmosphere enough to where the isolated storms that came in along the dryline across that region didn't have much to work with thankfully.

While ingredients can be in place (hence the SPC outlook), sometimes timing and real-time "weather" calls the shots ultimately. Better safe than sorry approach though in my opinion and so when it comes to severe weather (in particular the threat for tornadoes), I personally dislike the term "bust". I know all will take that over an outbreak or a tornado in a populated region as opposed to verification for the sake of verification.