STORM2K

After today it looks like rain chances in southeast Texas and the eastern half of the state will be next to nothing for the most part. Looks like a dry second half of May for a lot of us.

Edwards Limestone wrote:https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/rainfall/rainfall10day.png

How can I find one of these for southeast TX?

Cpv17 wrote:

Edwards Limestone wrote:https://www.weather.gov/images/ewx/products/rainfall/rainfall10day.png

How can I find one of these for southeast TX?

I wasn't able to find that product on the Houston NWS homepage, but these are interactive precip maps from NWS:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=ed433140c2a24b67aa9f19d2e3ea1977

Informative post by Steve McCauley yesterday describing why storms could be limited Friday.

Rainfall over the past several weeks no doubt has led to significant improvement of drought conditions across a good chunk of SC TX with hopefully more on the way late Friday into early Saturday morning.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1659216997992005632

SW to NC/NE TX should get some storms later today. Mostly some wind/hail threat, nothing too serious. Hope those that need some rain get it.

cstrunk wrote:SW to NC/NE TX should get some storms later today. Mostly some wind/hail threat, nothing too serious. Hope those that need some rain get it.

12z SPC HREF looks pretty good for storms this afternoon from SE OK, back SW through DFW, and down into the Hill Country. Let's go!

Mesoscale Discussion 0821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 191749Z - 191915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms, including supercells, are
expected to develop this afternoon in the wake of an early morning
MCS. Large hail is expected to be the primary threat, though
isolated damaging gusts and a tornado cannot be ruled out. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of an early morning MCS and remnant MCV
across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, clearing skies have aided in
rapid recovery of the air mass early this afternoon. Strong
insolation has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the 70s F
with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 60s F. Continued
modification of the air mass is likely through the next couple of
hours, supporting the development of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. As
instability develops and lingering inhibition is removed, the
development of severe storms is likely across a couple of areas this
afternoon.

Aided by the remnant MCV, area VAD/VWPs show moderate effective
shear (30-40 kt) sufficient for storm organization, including
supercells. Storms may first develop ahead of the remnant MCV across
eastern OK before spreading eastward into AR. A few storms may also
develop on the trailing outflow near the Red River and possibly as
far west as central OK. Despite the poor mid-level lapse rates, the
supercell storm mode will favor large hail potential with the
stronger sustained updrafts. The lack of stronger low-level flow
lends lower confidence in the potential for damaging winds and or
tornadoes. However, given the supercell mode, a strong gusts and a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. With the potential for strong to
severe storms to develop early this afternoon, a new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 05/19/2023

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

Officially 90 degrees at the big airport. A humid 90 at that. Saturday and Sunday will feel refreshing after today. Hopefully we get some solid boomers before the cool front sweeps through.

Some nice convergence along that OFB that is sagging off to the NW of DFW with storms already firing off. That cell that is moving into northern Collin County went from a puff of an updraft to svr warned with the quickness.

So frustrating to watch storms blowup JUST to your Southeast and move away from you. This seems to have happened a few times this year to us NW-plexers.
Oh well, I guess it's nice to at least hear some thunder from afar.

I wonder if anything is going to fire when the incoming front crashes into the NW drifting out flow moving away from DFW?

I was just too far NW barely.

But good rain for DFW on south/east.

Looks like there was some localized nasty hail over parts of Plano with that last cell.

Watch Extended until 10:00 pm for DFW

Next week could be problematic.

 https://twitter.com/jdoubs1/status/1659727887828762625

Iceresistance wrote:Next week could be problematic.

For who? Definitely not my area. Southeast Texas looks like a huge snooze fest for the next 2-3 weeks.