STORM2K

Some development on the front now with the outflow collision but sadly not impressive.

rwfromkansas wrote:Some development on the front now with the outflow collision but sadly not impressive.

I wouldn’t really expect much rain up in DFW anytime soon. Models don’t show much happening & neither does the CPC. Don’t get your hopes up.

If you are in North Texas, get outside! What an amazing spring day.

Cpv17 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next week could be problematic.

For who? Definitely not my area. Southeast Texas looks like a huge snooze fest for the next 2-3 weeks.

Oklahoma and parts of Texas, even then, it's not a very strong Supercell signal on the ensembles but it's there.

Iceresistance wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Next week could be problematic.

For who? Definitely not my area. Southeast Texas looks like a huge snooze fest for the next 2-3 weeks.

Oklahoma and parts of Texas, even then, it's not a very strong Supercell signal on the ensembles but it's there.

Eh I'm not really seeing much for this week. There will probably be a western trough around Memorial Day, but there could also be an East Coast low that restricts moisture return. Overall severe potential looks pretty low for a while imo.

bubba hotep wrote:If you are in North Texas, get outside! What an amazing spring day.

I'm assuming the haze we're seeing today is remnant smoke from the Canadian fires? Too breezy for local air pollution. Temps and humidity for late May are really unbelievably good. Such an improvement from this time last year when we were basically waiting out the inevitable.

ElectricStorm wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
For who? Definitely not my area. Southeast Texas looks like a huge snooze fest for the next 2-3 weeks.

Oklahoma and parts of Texas, even then, it's not a very strong Supercell signal on the ensembles but it's there.

Eh I'm not really seeing much for this week. There will probably be a western trough around Memorial Day, but there could also be an East Coast low that restricts moisture return. Overall severe potential looks pretty low for a while imo.

If it is too far east, it does not matter on moisture return.

If the trough is like in Mississippi or Florida, it could interfere with moisture return, but not like the Carolinas to New York.

Unfavorable wind shear? Yes

EDIT: Never mind, the Gulf of Mexico is colder than normal.

Iceresistance wrote:

ElectricStorm wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Oklahoma and parts of Texas, even then, it's not a very strong Supercell signal on the ensembles but it's there.

Eh I'm not really seeing much for this week. There will probably be a western trough around Memorial Day, but there could also be an East Coast low that restricts moisture return. Overall severe potential looks pretty low for a while imo.

If it is too far east, it does not matter on moisture return.

If the trough is like in Mississippi or Florida, it could interfere with moisture return, but not like the Carolinas to New York.

Unfavorable wind shear? Yes

EDIT: Never mind, the Gulf of Mexico is colder than normal.

On Tropical Tidbits it shows the SST’s in the Gulf above normal. A good bit above normal at that.

DallasAg wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:If you are in North Texas, get outside! What an amazing spring day.

I'm assuming the haze we're seeing today is remnant smoke from the Canadian fires? Too breezy for local air pollution. Temps and humidity for late May are really unbelievably good. Such an improvement from this time last year when we were basically waiting out the inevitable.

The only thing is its killing my allergies right now... I mean they flared up at lunch then i was fine at home and then after a half hour out it's like back again. Even the Allegra isn't stopping it

I'm heading back east for a trip Wednesday to see my parents so maybe they'll clear up there

Ensembles have a SE Trough, but SW Flow from a ridge from the GoM for the next several days.

Interesting…

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1660342834354872325

Pretty strong smokey smell in the air. I believe it's from the Canadian wildfires.

While this week looks to be pretty dry for most of Texas (besides NW TX and the panhandle), at least portions of the Great Plains that really need it are getting some rain. Hopefully it returns to the rest of us in June.

I've been trying to wish storms farther SE into DFW over the next couple of days, and now the 12z models seem to be trying to grant my wish lol

cstrunk wrote:Pretty strong smokey smell in the air. I believe it's from the Canadian wildfires.

The Sunset was hazy last night

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist
1d
·
The end-of-May into early June pattern is as textbook new El Nino with remnant cold PDO/warm NPO from previous La Nina regime, one that favors day-after-day severe weather and beneficial rains for the southern Plains, including the southern High Plains. Storm season is just getting started. I typically hedge my analyses of long-range models with a solid foundational knowledge of the Pacific Climate System. Never stop chasing

Texas Snowman wrote:Interesting…

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1660342834354872325?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg

This is just imo, but we should hope and pray the niño is central based and a semblance of a -qbo. Where waters set in the pacific is a good sign of what may happen

Not Texas, but I think we all remember this day in 2011. This footage appeared on YouTube this morning. Sobering stuff…

 https://twitter.com/nickkrasz_wx/status/1660666637790396417

[quote="Texas Snowman"]Not Texas, but I think we all remember this day in 2011. This footage appeared on YouTube this morning. Sobering stuff…

[url]https://twitter.com/nickkrasz_wx/status/1660666637790396417?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg[/url][/quote]

My stepfather is from there. His mom was in that nursing home that took a direct hit. She survived. She passed a few years later. His house he grew up in was destroyed. Very sobering footage.

Holy -SOI! I would never imagine a daily SOI below -50!


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-05-23-9.14.11-AM.png