STORM2K

bubba hotep wrote:Models have shifted the overnight MCS well east of DFW and really struggle to fire anything in the afternoon. I would roll the ENH back to Slight just based on lack of coverage.

Shocker. Lol.

I had a dream that I was staying at a fancy hotel during a thunderous storm, wake up to realize there is a loud storm moving through. Nice..

bubba hotep wrote:Models have shifted the overnight MCS well east of DFW and really struggle to fire anything in the afternoon. I would roll the ENH back to Slight just based on lack of coverage.

Lol now that you’ve said that, the SPC went and bumped tor probs up to 5% while maintaining the enhanced hail/wind. You jinxed us!

cheezyWXguy wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Models have shifted the overnight MCS well east of DFW and really struggle to fire anything in the afternoon. I would roll the ENH back to Slight just based on lack of coverage.

Lol now that you’ve said that, the SPC went and bumped tor probs up to 5% while maintaining the enhanced hail/wind. You jinxed us!

12z hi-res are showing everything mostly east and SE of DFW. That's why I don't work at SPC lol

bubba hotep wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Models have shifted the overnight MCS well east of DFW and really struggle to fire anything in the afternoon. I would roll the ENH back to Slight just based on lack of coverage.

Lol now that you’ve said that, the SPC went and bumped tor probs up to 5% while maintaining the enhanced hail/wind. You jinxed us!

12z hi-res are showing everything mostly east and SE of DFW. That's why I don't work at SPC lol

I guess it depends which models you’re looking at. The HRRR and ARW definitely look that way, but the NAM and ARW2 are a lot more enthusiastic. I tend to find that the NAM handles coverage a little better in events with a lack of forcing, but overdoes influence of remnant boundaries. My thought is somewhere between both of these camps, but leaning a bit more towards the NAM based on the setup

cheezyWXguy wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:Lol now that you’ve said that, the SPC went and bumped tor probs up to 5% while maintaining the enhanced hail/wind. You jinxed us!

12z hi-res are showing everything mostly east and SE of DFW. That's why I don't work at SPC lol

I guess it depends which models you’re looking at. The HRRR and ARW definitely look that way, but the NAM and ARW2 are a lot more enthusiastic. I tend to find that the NAM handles coverage a little better in events with a lack of forcing, but overdoes influence of remnant boundaries. My thought is somewhere between both of these camps, but leaning a bit more towards the NAM based on the setup

It does appear that the outflow is stalling/ washing out. Wherever that boundary ends up will probably have a locally enhanced risk of spin ups. Also, models sometimes fire storms too far east in these setups. I wouldn't be surprised to see storms fire farther west.

bubba hotep wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:
12z hi-res are showing everything mostly east and SE of DFW. That's why I don't work at SPC lol

I guess it depends which models you’re looking at. The HRRR and ARW definitely look that way, but the NAM and ARW2 are a lot more enthusiastic. I tend to find that the NAM handles coverage a little better in events with a lack of forcing, but overdoes influence of remnant boundaries. My thought is somewhere between both of these camps, but leaning a bit more towards the NAM based on the setup

It does appear that the outflow is stalling/ washing out. Wherever that boundary ends up will probably have a locally enhanced risk of spin ups. Also, models sometimes fire storms too far east in these setups. I wouldn't be surprised to see storms fire farther west.

So much for that; outflow just blasted through Southern Collin County like a cold front. Now we have brisk north wind and refreshingly cool air...

15z HRRR doesn't show much of anything for DFW. I was hoping for a solid rain before the heat set in, but it looks like another ENH shutout lol

bubba hotep wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:I guess it depends which models you’re looking at. The HRRR and ARW definitely look that way, but the NAM and ARW2 are a lot more enthusiastic. I tend to find that the NAM handles coverage a little better in events with a lack of forcing, but overdoes influence of remnant boundaries. My thought is somewhere between both of these camps, but leaning a bit more towards the NAM based on the setup

It does appear that the outflow is stalling/ washing out. Wherever that boundary ends up will probably have a locally enhanced risk of spin ups. Also, models sometimes fire storms too far east in these setups. I wouldn't be surprised to see storms fire farther west.

So much for that; outflow just blasted through Southern Collin County like a cold front. Now we have brisk north wind and refreshingly cool air...

15z HRRR doesn't show much of anything for DFW. I was hoping for a solid rain before the heat set in, but it looks like another ENH shutout lol

Lol y’all almost always get shafted when there’s a severe threat for y’all.

Cpv17 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:
It does appear that the outflow is stalling/ washing out. Wherever that boundary ends up will probably have a locally enhanced risk of spin ups. Also, models sometimes fire storms too far east in these setups. I wouldn't be surprised to see storms fire farther west.

So much for that; outflow just blasted through Southern Collin County like a cold front. Now we have brisk north wind and refreshingly cool air...

15z HRRR doesn't show much of anything for DFW. I was hoping for a solid rain before the heat set in, but it looks like another ENH shutout lol

Lol y’all almost always get shafted when there’s a severe threat for y’all.

If the SPC throws up an ENH for DFW then you book a family picnic at the lake because it's not even going to rain lol

Still hot so boundary washing out it seems.

I just wanted a decent rain before weeks of death ridge.

Shucks.

Most of the activity is south of the boundary, but a storm has fired off near Breckenridge. This would be exclusively dryline-driven, and I suspect that’s why portions of dfw are still in the enhanced risk. We’ll have to see if any additional storms fire off the dryline or not

Nasty looking cell out west of Ft. Worth, but it is starting to hook SE. Really strange that we are about to make it through the "rainy" season without a single significant MCS event for DFW. All we have really had are pop-up storms and outflow boundaries from MCSs.

And canceled.

Well, sprinkler is officially on.

Not to rub it in anyone's face but it poured here this afternoon. 3.53" total. Definitely what we needed to get back ahead.

bubba hotep wrote:Really strange that we are about to make it through the "rainy" season without a single significant MCS event for DFW. All we have really had are pop-up storms and outflow boundaries from MCSs.

We had a nasty one back in early March that could have been real damaging had it not been too early in the season for foliage. Knocked out a bunch of dead branches just before the growing season, couldn't have asked for better timing on it tbh

Hail Hatch for DFW today.

bubba hotep wrote:Hail Hatch for DFW today.

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/spc/spcd1hail.us_sc.png

And a slight risk, which means it's going to be really bad.

bubba hotep wrote:Hail Hatch for DFW today.

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/spc/spcd1hail.us_sc.png

Looks like a repeat of yesterday to me. Hopefully we get something though

cheezyWXguy wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Hail Hatch for DFW today.

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/spc/spcd1hail.us_sc.png

Looks like a repeat of yesterday to me. Hopefully we get something though

Storm chances for DFW the next 3 days but models are doing their best to snake storms all over the place to avoid DFW. For today, it looks like the same areas that saw storms yesterday will be the primary target.

Had a complex yesterday morning, Around .3 of rain.

Plus, the garden has been started.