Texas Fall 2023

[jasons2k]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2290.html

[Fifty Rock]

I put taj on ignore and my board experience has been much more pleasant thus far. No room for trolls here.

Never knew that was an option. And I've been on here over a decade. Thanks.

I honestly just stumbled on it by chance. Click on your username in the upper right, then click User Control Panel >> Friends and Foes and add whomever you want to ignore to the foes list.

I found that you can also just click on the person you wish to and just hit friend or foe, just a little bit easier. I have a BS in Bull S#!t

[Brent]

Which met?

Mike Collier

Another one has predicted snow in December but didn't have a date

Mike predicted an early December snowfall but claimed the very light dusting last week as the first snowfall
I am actually in Tulsa on and off the the next 8 months, so I'm looking forward to some winter weather. Not quite sure if we will see that until January. Looks like above normal temps over the next few weeks.

Ha well try to enjoy Tulsa either way. I'm not giving up on December snow yet especially the second half of the month but we'll see

Of course the first winter I was here all had was flakes til February and then it snowed 8 inches in one storm the entire average of the winter

And last winter the only real snow was December January was sleet but last winter was really bad one of the least snowy here

[Edwards Limestone]

Never knew that was an option. And I've been on here over a decade. Thanks.

I honestly just stumbled on it by chance. Click on your username in the upper right, then click User Control Panel >> Friends and Foes and add whomever you want to ignore to the foes list.

I found that you can also just click on the person you wish to and just hit friend or foe, just a little bit easier. I have a BS in Bull S#!t

Even better!!! Nice

[CaptinCrunch]

Todays precip is winding down from west to east as the radar is looking pretty clean from FTW westward. few tenths here at work, better amounts across southern and Eastern parts of NTX

[weatherdude1108]

I'm disappointed with the last few rain events here. Only been a spattering of about an inch here, 0.1" there, a splash of 0.04" there, etc.
Lake Travis is reversing its gains. The mud in my back yard has dried out to moist/dry soils now.

The last good soaking here was before Halloween when we got multiple inches, rising lakes, and a fully saturated yard. Seems like the normal now (El Nino or not) is that we go at least few weeks between signicant rains, starting the "pump" over (sigh).

I'm hoping the trend reverts to a more typical El Nino as we head towards Winter.

Ok, this should be my last Texas Fall thread post. On to the Winter thread!

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Discussion 2292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast TX into extreme
southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 302152Z - 302315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and locally damaging gusts may
still evolve late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection persists this afternoon near the upper TX
coast, while storms have also recently developed near the western
edge of deeper moisture across parts of east-central TX. Thus far,
convection has struggled to become organized, despite the presence
of rich low-level moisture and favorable wind profiles. This is
likely due to widespread cloudiness across the region, with weak
low-level lapse rates where convection is ongoing.

While MLCINH is not prohibitive for surface-based storms (largely
due to the rich low-level moisture), the short-term potential for
organized storms remains uncertain, with a continued tendency for
convection to remain slightly elevated as it moves through a poor
lapse rate environment where clouds remain entrenched. However, with
favorable deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (greater
closer to the coast) across the region, a transient supercell and/or
a stronger line segment cannot be ruled out through the remainder of
the afternoon, with an attendant threat of a tornado and/or locally
damaging gusts.

With the threat expected to remain rather isolated through the
afternoon, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. Some uptick
remains possible sometime this evening, especially into far
southeast TX/southwest LA, and trends will continue to be monitored
for an increase in storm organization/intensity, given the favorable
wind profiles and low-level moisture in place.

..Dean.. 11/30/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

[bubba hotep]

Enjoy the next week to 10 days of warm, dry weather, it will make for a great start to the winter wx thread! But there is potential for a big system with winter wx in that 10-13 day range.

[Brent]

Enjoy the next week to 10 days of warm, dry weather, it will make for a great start to the winter wx thread! But there is potential for a big system with winter wx in that 10-13 day range.

Lmao TWC has 70s here the day before so I'll believe it when I see it on wintry but I guess stranger things have happened

Or at least maybe it'll rain better... Just mist here all day so far kind of sums up most of the rain events this fall

[jasons2k]

It was a bust down here. I had .54" with predictions of a solid 1-2" today. I don't think there was a single severe weather watch, warning, or report anywhere in SE Texas today. We had lots of media hype down here over this event and it was a big nothing burger.

[South Texas Storms]

It was a bust down here. I had .54" with predictions of a solid 1-2" today. I don't think there was a single severe weather watch, warning, or report anywhere in SE Texas today. We had lots of media hype down here over this event and it was a big nothing burger.

Other than the rainfall being less than expected, I have no complaints about this system being a bust. So nice to not have any severe weather and tornadoes today with all of the shear in place.

[jasons2k]

It was a bust down here. I had .54" with predictions of a solid 1-2" today. I don't think there was a single severe weather watch, warning, or report anywhere in SE Texas today. We had lots of media hype down here over this event and it was a big nothing burger.

Other than the rainfall being less than expected, I have no complaints about this system being a bust. So nice to not have any severe weather and tornadoes today with all of the shear in place.

Agreed, but the public perception is that this was another incident of 'crying wolf' -- and we've had a string of them for a long time in the Houston area. I read and hear the chatter - people are numb to it now. It's not a good precedent for when we finally get the real deal.

[cstrunk]

I ended up with 0.82" in Longview. Not too terrible but lower than expected a couple of days ago.

As far as the next week goes, I have no problems with highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's... that's beautiful fall weather.

[tajmahal]

At Austin Camp Mabry:

This November tied 1962 for the 55th warmest / 61st coolest November in the 116–year climate record. This month"s average temperature of 59.5° F was 0.1° F cooler than the climate record average of 59.6° F. The warmest and coolest were 68.2° F in 1927, which was extraordinarily warm, and 51.6° F in 1976.

This month's average daily high temperature of 68.3° F tied 1980 for the 39th coolest / 80th warmest in the 119–year November climate record. High temperatures were 2.1° F cooler than the climate record average of 70.4° F. The warmest and coolest were 78.5° F in 1927 and 60.6° F in 1907.

This month's average daily low temperature of 50.6° F was the 45th warmest / 75th coolest in the 119–year November climate record. Low temperatures were 1.6° F warmer than the climate record average of 49.0° F. The warmest and coolest were 57.9° F in 1927 and 39.9° F in 1959.

This month was the 39th driest / 85th wettest in the 123–year November climate record. Total rainfall was 1.21 inches, which was 1.22 inches less than the climate record average of 2.43 inches. The wettest and driest were 14.10 inches in 2004 and 0.00 inches in 2012 and 1897.

No daily temperature records were tied or broken this month.