Texas Spring 2024

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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#961 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu May 02, 2024 12:41 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Need to get some of these leftover boundaries from storms yesterday/overnight to activate down across San Antonio metro. One moving southwest near New Braunfels. If we can get some heating going, perhaps things will begin to fire a bit this afternoon. Good news is we have more than enough moisture in place so anything that does develop would be efficient rain makers.

Think models will continue to be hit or miss over the next few days across South Central Texas as a result of where these boundaries establish themselves and assuming they can activate with daytime heating. Not great odds but at least it's not zero.


Another disappointing event for SA. Thankfully most areas picked up over 0.50 inch on Sunday or else this bust would hurt even more.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#962 Postby snownado » Thu May 02, 2024 12:43 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
snownado wrote:All of this rain is just going to make for one of the muggiest Summers we've seen in a long time.


Having a wet humid ground can actually be beneficial in avoiding massive/dry heat ridges from sitting over top of you.


Given the broader upper level pattern that's projected to set up with the looming La Nina, it won't be nearly as beneficial as some are hoping.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#963 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu May 02, 2024 2:11 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Need to get some of these leftover boundaries from storms yesterday/overnight to activate down across San Antonio metro. One moving southwest near New Braunfels. If we can get some heating going, perhaps things will begin to fire a bit this afternoon. Good news is we have more than enough moisture in place so anything that does develop would be efficient rain makers.

Think models will continue to be hit or miss over the next few days across South Central Texas as a result of where these boundaries establish themselves and assuming they can activate with daytime heating. Not great odds but at least it's not zero.


Another disappointing event for SA. Thankfully most areas picked up over 0.50 inch on Sunday or else this bust would hurt even more.


Any thoughts on what might be going on meteorologically? Seems like we've had lots of these types of busts the past few years. It's almost fascinating.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#964 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu May 02, 2024 2:19 pm

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/hill-country/article/jacobs-well-summer-swimming-suspension-19433711.php

Texas drought leads to Jacob's Well suspending 2024 swim season
The Wimberley swim spot has been closed for almost two years.
By Gabriel Romero
May 1, 2024


Image
Jacob's Well.
Photo Courtesy of Hays County Parks Department
May marks the start of the summer season for many swim spots in the Texas Hill Country, but the drought has hurt those plans. While a popular lake has recently hit historic lows, an iconic Wimberley swimming hole that used to have flowing, clear water is still shut down after almost two years.

The 2024 summer swim season at Jacob's Well Natural Area has been suspended indefinitely, according to a Jacob's Well Natural Area-Hays County Parks Facebook post.

"The summer swimming season, which typically extends from May 1 through Sept. 30 of each year, will be suspended due to below-average spring flow and water levels," the post reads.

Hays County officials will re-evaluate water conditions every month to figure out if swimming at Jacob's Well could become possible again, the post noted.

Jacob's Well was closed on June 29, 2022, due to "high levels of bacteria, pollutants, and poor visibility conditions," according to a MySA report. One year ago, the county had to continue to keep the swimming spot closed for the "foreseeable future." Despite getting a boost from massive rainfall in January, Jacob's Well has remained closed for swimming.

How long until swimmers are allowed to go back into Jacob's Well? Rain would help, said Hays County Parks Education Coordinator Katherine Sturdivant.

"We would first need a lot of rain," Sturdivant explained in an email. "That rain would need to fall in the recharge zone of the Trinity Aquifer to make an impact on Jacob's Well flow."

Before allowing swimming, the parks department would want to see continuous flow being sustained at a normal level. Unfortunately, the amount of rain the area has received, which caused the flow to briefly spike up, has plummeted back down towards zero, Sturdivant said.

As of 9 a.m. Thursday, May 2, Jacob's Well is at zero cfs, the average around this time of the year is typically five to six cfs or higher, Sturdivant said in the email.

"This spring has been busy, but I expect that just like last summer, visitation will drop off soon," Sturdivant said. "We have taken a financial hit, however, it is not something that the Parks Department is worried about. Fortunately, the money made from the swim season isn't the only thing keeping us going."

The Texas drought hasn't been easy on the Texas Hill Country swim spots. Canyon Lake passed an all-time low water level in April, according to a MySA report. On April 22, Canyon Lake was reported as being 59% full, which was the lowest the lake had been since the dam was built in the 1960s. The popular lake saw a huge drop in water levels from over a year ago when it was reported at 76.4% full.

May 1, 2024
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#965 Postby txtwister78 » Thu May 02, 2024 2:48 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Need to get some of these leftover boundaries from storms yesterday/overnight to activate down across San Antonio metro. One moving southwest near New Braunfels. If we can get some heating going, perhaps things will begin to fire a bit this afternoon. Good news is we have more than enough moisture in place so anything that does develop would be efficient rain makers.

Think models will continue to be hit or miss over the next few days across South Central Texas as a result of where these boundaries establish themselves and assuming they can activate with daytime heating. Not great odds but at least it's not zero.


Another disappointing event for SA. Thankfully most areas picked up over 0.50 inch on Sunday or else this bust would hurt even more.


Yeah it's definitely been disappointing when you compare what the short-range models had been advertising Tuesday evening and as late as the 12z runs yesterday. Just can't get a trigger/forcing mechanism down into this area. Just maybe one of these boundaries will overperform.

I guess I'll have to settle for these off and on streamer showers in the meantime. I'll take whatever I can get now. Lol.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#966 Postby WeatherNewbie » Thu May 02, 2024 2:53 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/hill-country/article/jacobs-well-summer-swimming-suspension-19433711.php

Texas drought leads to Jacob's Well suspending 2024 swim season
The Wimberley swim spot has been closed for almost two years.
By Gabriel Romero
May 1, 2024


https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/37/24/16/24986499/3/960x0.webp
Jacob's Well.
Photo Courtesy of Hays County Parks Department
May marks the start of the summer season for many swim spots in the Texas Hill Country, but the drought has hurt those plans. While a popular lake has recently hit historic lows, an iconic Wimberley swimming hole that used to have flowing, clear water is still shut down after almost two years.

The 2024 summer swim season at Jacob's Well Natural Area has been suspended indefinitely, according to a Jacob's Well Natural Area-Hays County Parks Facebook post.

"The summer swimming season, which typically extends from May 1 through Sept. 30 of each year, will be suspended due to below-average spring flow and water levels," the post reads.

Hays County officials will re-evaluate water conditions every month to figure out if swimming at Jacob's Well could become possible again, the post noted.

Jacob's Well was closed on June 29, 2022, due to "high levels of bacteria, pollutants, and poor visibility conditions," according to a MySA report. One year ago, the county had to continue to keep the swimming spot closed for the "foreseeable future." Despite getting a boost from massive rainfall in January, Jacob's Well has remained closed for swimming.

How long until swimmers are allowed to go back into Jacob's Well? Rain would help, said Hays County Parks Education Coordinator Katherine Sturdivant.

"We would first need a lot of rain," Sturdivant explained in an email. "That rain would need to fall in the recharge zone of the Trinity Aquifer to make an impact on Jacob's Well flow."

Before allowing swimming, the parks department would want to see continuous flow being sustained at a normal level. Unfortunately, the amount of rain the area has received, which caused the flow to briefly spike up, has plummeted back down towards zero, Sturdivant said.

As of 9 a.m. Thursday, May 2, Jacob's Well is at zero cfs, the average around this time of the year is typically five to six cfs or higher, Sturdivant said in the email.

"This spring has been busy, but I expect that just like last summer, visitation will drop off soon," Sturdivant said. "We have taken a financial hit, however, it is not something that the Parks Department is worried about. Fortunately, the money made from the swim season isn't the only thing keeping us going."

The Texas drought hasn't been easy on the Texas Hill Country swim spots. Canyon Lake passed an all-time low water level in April, according to a MySA report. On April 22, Canyon Lake was reported as being 59% full, which was the lowest the lake had been since the dam was built in the 1960s. The popular lake saw a huge drop in water levels from over a year ago when it was reported at 76.4% full.

May 1, 2024


water is up over hammett's crossing next to hamilton pool for the first time in a long time.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#967 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 02, 2024 3:57 pm

Another day, another watch for Texas

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#968 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu May 02, 2024 4:21 pm

Geez, another day with wild swings on the HRRR and NAM models through the day with precip amount and placement over the next few days. Who the heck knows where the storms will fire? We will see I guess.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#969 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 02, 2024 4:28 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Geez, another day with wild swings on the HRRR and NAM models through the day with precip amount and placement over the next few days. Who the heck knows where the storms will fire? We will see I guess.


All models struggle with convection and then toss in morning outflows, daytime differential heating, and other random boundaries and it's no better than guessing.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#970 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 02, 2024 4:32 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Geez, another day with wild swings on the HRRR and NAM models through the day with precip amount and placement over the next few days. Who the heck knows where the storms will fire? We will see I guess.


Throwing darts blindfolded. Who knows what’s gonna happen. All I know is that areas just 2 hours north of me are under water and I’ve barely gotten a drop.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#971 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu May 02, 2024 4:33 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#972 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu May 02, 2024 4:34 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#973 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu May 02, 2024 4:47 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Geez, another day with wild swings on the HRRR and NAM models through the day with precip amount and placement over the next few days. Who the heck knows where the storms will fire? We will see I guess.


Throwing darts blindfolded. Who knows what’s gonna happen. All I know is that areas just 2 hours north of me are under water and I’ve barely gotten a drop.


I feel that man. So frustrating for those of us south of the 30th parallel lately.

This was me yesterday looking 25 mi NW of my house at all the flooding in Blanco County.
Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#974 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 02, 2024 5:46 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Geez, another day with wild swings on the HRRR and NAM models through the day with precip amount and placement over the next few days. Who the heck knows where the storms will fire? We will see I guess.


Throwing darts blindfolded. Who knows what’s gonna happen. All I know is that areas just 2 hours north of me are under water and I’ve barely gotten a drop.


I feel that man. So frustrating for those of us south of the 30th parallel lately.

This was me yesterday looking 25 mi NW of my house at all the flooding in Blanco County.
https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/016/978/UiXAker.gif


Us southerners keep getting shafted.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#975 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 02, 2024 5:55 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#976 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 02, 2024 5:59 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#977 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 02, 2024 6:01 pm

Splits and mergers doing work off the dryline

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#978 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 02, 2024 6:57 pm

These storms have produced multiple tornadoes

 https://x.com/312Will/status/1786182184136474891


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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#979 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 02, 2024 7:20 pm

Reports of a big tornado moving into the Abilene area

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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#980 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu May 02, 2024 7:23 pm

Large and extremely dangerous tornado over Hawley moving into Abilene. My wife is in Abilene until mid-May helping her mom who had knee surgery. Um, I'm a little concerned since the track has it going right to them, but luckily it's a ways out.
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