STORM2K

Expanded moderate risk now includes Tulsa metro. SPC mentioned they considered a high risk upgrade but are holding off for now, but an upgrade in later outlooks is possible.

Looks like some OKC mets are getting inside info from the SPC and are saying they will upgrade to high risk from OKC to the KS border

Edit: confirmed now by SPC

ElectricStorm wrote:Looks like some OKC mets are getting inside info from the SPC and are saying they will upgrade to high risk from OKC to the KS border

Edit: confirmed now by SPC

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1787455798148579365

ElectricStorm= Made a thread for the severe weather expected today.

This is just barely to my NW, storm shelter is ready

There it is:
 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1787466149351088523

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1787466811018973260

What concerns me even more is the timing of the event, best chance at strong tornadoes is 3z-6z tonight (10pm-1am CDT) so hopefully everyone has a way to get warning notifications tonight.

cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1787466811018973260

What does he mean Dixie Alley is in play? Doesn’t look like it on the map. Does he mean later this week?

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:

cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1787466811018973260

What does he mean Dixie Alley is in play? Doesn’t look like it on the map. Does he mean later this week?

He's referring to SPC day 3 outlook (Wednesday):

PDS watch coming

Iceresistance wrote:This is just barely to my NW, storm shelter is ready

I think the latest update includes you in the high risk now.

I wanted to go over some of the synoptics for today's severe weather potential. I'll focus mainly on the SPC hatched area, but the potential for severe weather and tornadoes extends along the entire eastern flank of the negatively tilted trough.

If we're looking for severe weather potential, this is a classic setup with the negatively tilted trough extending down towards Texas/GOM:


This is a full animation of the trough's progression throughout the day, and you can see as we get later on (around 00 UTC), the level of ascent (blue shaded areas) really amplifies:

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/standard.php?domain=northamer&variable=rel_vort

One of the reasons for this is significant low-level theta advection from the GOM/Mexico region. When we have this type of advection with a negatively tilted trough, it really amplifies potential vorticity and CAPE:

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/standard.php?domain=northamer&variable=850_thetae

CAPE values

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=mucape&rh=2024050606&fh=18

In addition, we have a moderate-high shear environment

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=bs0500&rh=2024050606&fh=18

When you combine all of these factors (high CAPE values/ascent, high shear from sfc-500mb, and a negatively tilted trough), this creates the potential for severe and significant supercells. If we were to look at an animation of soundings with hodographs for the hatched area, we can see how the wind speed translates from aloft towards the surface as the day progresses. Winds also shift clockwise (known as veering, or clockwise turning of the wind barbs with height—veering winds are associated with warm air advection and produce significant thunderstorms):

 https://twitter.com/BrianAllenWX/status/1787546459065250221




Yeah that's a yikes from me... Along with the fact that shear seems to be over performing the models so far

I'm really getting tired of the late night events too just watched a stream from OKC and almost entirely after 10pm

Brent wrote:I'm really getting tired of the late night events too just watched a stream from OKC and almost entirely after 10pm

I have a final at 8am tomorrow morning yeah there's not gonna be much studying getting done tonight lol

PDS Tornado Watch is up with 95/90 probs