STORM2K

Ok, if we must, we must. So let’s do this and power through summertime to Texas Fall 2024!

Most of us are doing well on rainfall. Sorry for those that keep missing out.

We know that the rain is going to peter out as some point soon... my only hope is that we can get timely rainfall to keep things from getting too dry. And for selfish reasons, so I don't have to water my lawn much.

Interesting. I’ve been thinking about this possibility for the Red River Valley because we’ve had a very wet spring with 20+ inches in April and May (including 10.33 inches in May as of this post) at the Austin College Weather Station to the west of North Texas Regional Airport.

 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1796222640719384906

My hunch is a warm summer (you will go wrong predicting below normal in this modern climate any season by the numbers) but cool relative to summers prior, significantly fewer 100F+ days. Also might be a wet one. The growing warm pool in the NE Pacific (2013/2014) likely pulls the ridges away from Texas as higher pressure will be more dominant in the NE Pac/Pac NW.

Nothing extreme or record-breaking (yet), but it does appear the heat should build back in next week for much of the state. N. / NE TX may still be susceptible to right-turning MCS though.

Let's HAARP or whatever our way out of that 'Major hurricane impact' thing....

Pulling the modern wet YTD years gives you this for July-August. 2024 is trending right with those years for rainfall YTD.

Storms should weaken before they make it to NTX and DFW, but never underestimate an organized MCS with a strong cold pool.

June 1st means that the 2024 hurricane season is now officially underway and it’s looking pretty active this summer and fall according to most seasonal forecasts.

Questions: How many storms make landfall in Texas this year? How many hurricanes strike the Lone Star State? Any major hurricanes affect our coastline?

My answers: 2 storms; 1 hurricane; 1 major hurricane.

Texas Snowman wrote:June 1st means that the 2024 hurricane season is now officially underway and it’s looking pretty active this summer and fall according to most seasonal forecasts.

Questions: How many storms make landfall in Texas this year? How many hurricanes strike the Lone Star State? Any major hurricanes affect our coastline?

My answers: 2 storms; 1 hurricane; 1 major hurricane.

4 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major - Active period 2nd half of June/ealy July, then August is balls to the wall.

2010 is kind of my guide but wrong NAO mode. Think something from BOC comes up like Hermine. Largely recurves with expanded warming of the Atlantic.

For Texas 1 hurricane and 1 TS is my guess.

Northern parts of DFW (my location included) is getting some non-severe t'storm action with just enough mid-level instability, just weak enough capping and a remnant MCV moving though.

EDIT: Might have spoken too soon about the severe part. A decent-looking hail core is developing along the Tarrant / Denton County line and miving eastward.

First warning of the summer for DFW

DFW airport is getting the brunt of that.

Ntxw wrote:DFW airport is getting the brunt of that.

I'm in Coppell ATM and I can vouch. Getting hammered here.

Flood Advisory has also been issued for Southern Denton / Collin Counties.

Getting some hairy positive lightning strikes here, although the rain is fairly slacking for the time being.

0.42" at the airport so far with another quick round behind it.

Okay the rain has gotten ridiculous. Storms in southern Denton County (Roanoke) has dropped another 1.35 this morning. We’re now at 6.81 inches for the week and 32.79 for the year.

Is it September yet

1.23" at DFW. June starting wet.