STORM2K

Looks like this year the severe season may start more early because of ENSO.





 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2008680540078305727

Slight risk for Friday.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday
from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and
Southeast.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH
Valleys...
Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to
move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of
this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies
and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and
potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains
regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop
and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the
lower Ohio Valley.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F)
will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing
cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from
south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north
and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in
weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will
remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to
develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in
response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low.

Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with
multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm
sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and
into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat
from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with
increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet.
The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential
for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible,
especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area,
where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.

Is now marginal risk.

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley...
Within a belt of broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow, a
negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will
track northeastward from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes
through the period.

Strongly forced thunderstorms will be ongoing/spreading
east-northeastward across OK at the start of the period. While poor
midlevel lapse rates and only partially modified Gulf moisture will
limit buoyancy for these storms, 50-60 kt of effective shear will
support a few organized clusters/line segments and perhaps transient
supercell structures. Isolated large hail will be the primary
concern, though locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado will be
possible with any surface-based storms that can evolve.

This activity will spread/develop northeastward into the Ozarks and
eventually the Lower OH Valley vicinity through the
afternoon/evening, in tandem with the midlevel trough and surface
low. Here, boundary-layer moisture and related buoyancy will become
more limited with northward extent, though strengthening deep-layer
flow/shear (to include a 50-kt low-level jet) will continue to
support a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and
possibly a brief tornado. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible
through this corridor into the overnight hours ahead of an
approaching front. Farther southeast, recent high-resolution
guidance depicts a band of storms developing within broad/moist
confluent low-level flow over the Lower MS Valley late in the
period. While these storms will be on the eastern edge of the warm
sector, strong low/deep-layer shear will yield a conditional severe
risk.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Louisiana into
parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...East TX into the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South...
In the wake of a departing mid/upper shortwave trough and surface
low, a cold front is forecast to slow down by afternoon and perhaps
become nearly stationary from near the ArkLaTex region to the
Mid-South. As an upstream mid/upper trough approaches from the west,
cyclogenesis is expected along this front, with the surface low
expected to move east-northeastward toward the TN Valley by Saturday
morning.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place within the warm
sector of this cyclone, and low-level and deep-layer shear will
increase with time as the frontal wave develops. However, guidance
continues to vary somewhat regarding the extent of phasing between
the approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains and a
strong shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies. There are also varying solutions regarding the coverage of
early-day convection, and the extent to which it hampers warm-sector
destabilization as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthens.

Early-day storms within the modest warm-advection regime from east
TX into the lower MS Valley could pose a low-probability threat of
all severe hazards. An increase in the severe potential could evolve
from late afternoon into the evening, as low-level and deep-layer
shear begin to strengthen in response to the approaching trough.
Organized clusters and a few supercells will be possible, with an
attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat that may continue into
late Friday night. However, if early-day convection becomes
widespread with increasingly prominent outflow (as indicated by some
00Z HREF members), the magnitude and north/east extent of the
organized severe threat may be relatively limited. The greatest
relative confidence in an organized severe threat is currently
across parts of LA into central/southern MS, with a more conditional
threat to the north and east of this area.

Well it didn't take long to get our first tornadoes up here this year, multiple confirmed warnings already and reports of damage near Purcell. Sirens went off in Norman but they were already east of here. Surprised there isn't a watch up yet.

There is one now. Until noon CST.

 https://x.com/PappenheimWx/status/2009304561857515597

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/2009308645620609289

 https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/2009319022618100186

cycloneye wrote: https://x.com/PappenheimWx/status/2009304561857515597

When I saw that I thought we had had another EF5. I heard earlier it was an EF1 though.