STORM2K

Anyone got any better info on this one? They say it's gonna be a tough call on the snow issue.

Thanks in advance

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 404 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2003
...WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHICH INCLUDES THE TRIAD AREA...GREENSBORO...WINSTON SALEM...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON AND ROXBORO. FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHICH INCLUDES TRIANGLE AREAS OF RALEIGH...DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL ALONG WITH LOUISBURG AND CREEDMOOR AND WARRENTON...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE RAIN COULD BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW.

same situation here in VA BEACH...rain snow line seems to be wanting to set up between here and Elizabeth City......so maybe we both get more snow
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... +STATEMENT

12z ETA indicating nothing at all ... nada .... however, with the 500mb Geopotential Heights showing an almost neutral trough with no surface reflection, this isn't the solution I was expecting.

12z GFS indicating a much stronger system which also as the same time, may have too much of a warm nose (possibly indicating a Miller A Type Low) - Southern Stream energy being quite dominant on this solution.

Right now, my current thinking hasn't changed for Raleigh, NC - the imfamous rain with the r/s line just NW of the city. However, as more information comes in later tonight, and looking for model support for the GFS solution (which this model stands alone) there is a lot of uncertainty with this developing situation.

Good luck to everyone else wishing for snow. I hope you get it.

I'm like you Southerngale when it pertains to snow ... it's everywhere but here!....

I'm definitely not writing off snow for Raleigh, NC just yet ... but I don't have any agreement with any of the models ATT. Hopefully the next couple of runs plus the ECMWF will shed some light on the developing scenario ...

The one next weekend looks like a possible blockbuster ...

Thanks for your view - as usual it will not come this far, it will stop short - again

Hope all those folks east of me get some!

If we get any snow at all, it will be a dusting. It's funny, but, where I am is always right on the rain/snow line![/i]

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PERTURBATION NOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH AND CHANNEL THROUGH THE FAST
SOUTHERN STREAM AHEAD OF ANOTHER PERTURBATION NOW SURGING SOUTH IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. TOGETHER...THESE
PERTURBATIONS MODULATE A SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH GFS STRONGEST AND OTHER MODELS
LESS AMPLIFIED. QUESTIONS ARISE WITH REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ALLOWED TO FLOW NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STATES BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAST MOVEMENT SHOULD MEAN
LIMITED QPF. CHANCES APPEAR GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND NOON MONDAY. THERMAL STRUCTURE WITH THIS MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM
EVENT SUPPORTS MOSTLY RAIN BUT BEGINNING AS SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN NORTH OF AN ASHEBORO-RDU-ROCKY MOUNT LINE IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE TRIAD
AND IN THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT
THIS PAST THURSDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE REISSUED TO
CLARIFY THE THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN WILL BE PLAYED BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN RESIDUAL RAIN
COOLED AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE 40S.