STORM2K

Seems we have plenty of moisture streaming from the GOM and from the heavy rains and snows in the SW it all bodes well for the NE if the trough digs a little further south. For the most part, a High will be parked east of Hudson Bay and will supress the cold air as well as this system pushing up from the south and more than likely keep it far enough south of at least MY locale so we see 1-3". Look for much heavier amounts in towards Philly and DC. This is a large area of precip....some 1000-1500 miles in length and plenty of cold air north...just where will this track wind up? South will see alot of rain, some places need it, while closer you get to VA we're talking ice and higher elevations could see quite a bit of it. Stay tuned...this track and temps involved always changes every 6 hours, so we'll try to keep an eye out for where this goes and what this can produce.

There's been alot of talk about this storm, especially where I work. President's Day weekend is one of the busiest weekends for us and if this thing does blow in, we won't be having as many customers as we normally do.

lol Steph.....if this verifies and pans out, you could see another Presidents Day storm for the books! Well....a day before, but still! Hope things really crank off the coast and dump on the people that have been wanting the snow all year and havent gotten it. We'll see...I'm watching the trends.....it still has it on the way and developing a coastal Low as well. The upper level Low coming from the plains and south will be the main one to watch though.

Latest HPC mentions the 'B' word for Mid-Atlantic.
Latest indications for some areas to pick up - yes 2 to 3 FEET.

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003

VALID 00Z SUN FEB 16 2003 - 12Z MON FEB 17 2003

......NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO AFFECT MID-ATLANTIC REGION......

REALLY GOING TO BE TWO MAIN FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. SLOW MOVG SRN STREAM UPR TROF WILL MOV GRADUALLY
OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND EWD INTO THE CENT APPALACHIANS BY MON
WITH COPIOUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING NWD OVR TOP OF AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACR THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/OH VLY REGION.
MEANWHILE THE WEST COAST WILL BE SEEING ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE
PD AS AN UPR TROF SWINGS INLAND WITH S/WV ENERGY. XPCT
VLY RAINS/MTN SNOWS TO MOV INLAND TO THE THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION BY MON.

MODELS TODAY STRONGLY SUPPORT A TREMENDOUS WINTER STORM
HAMMERING THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. COMBINATION
OF A S/CENT PLAINS UPR TROF AXIS MOVG SLOWLY EWD WITH VRY
IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD UP INTO A STG
BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND THEN OVERRUNNING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACR ONTARIO/QUEBEC. REALLY EXPECTING THE
SWD PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR FRM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
YIELD A CLASSIC COLD-AIR DAMMING EVENT. LOW PRESSURE ALREADY IN
THE LWR MS VLY WILL MOV EWD SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY INTO AL/GA WITH
SECONDARY COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OFF THE SRN MID-
ATLANTIC. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL BECOME DOMINATE SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY AND DEEPEN. XPCT INCR WIND AND VRY HVY PCPN TO
WRAP INLAND FRM THE ATLANTIC WITH STG 850 MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BOTTOMLINE...LATEST ETA/GFS GENERATE
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA ALL THE WAY FRM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AND THEN NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE THE AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR VRY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE. PLEASE SEE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR DETAILS. XPCT PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND JET
DYNAMICS/MID-LVL FORCING TO SUPPORT LOCALLY STG CONVECTION ACR
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS THE ATTENDANT CDFNT PUSHES EWD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

Thats the initial map right rob? I think baltimore is the bullseye. They seem the get the most snow out of these types of systems.

Yep JQ...that was a valid map as of a few hours ago.

The big question of the day ....

Will this storm rival the 1996 storm or this beauty?

hmmmmm...I'd be surprised, but all the elements are there. While this is Miller time, we will certainly see a close approximation to those 2 for sure.

Man...we're getting pounded!

Champion, PA 40" :o :o :o