STORM2K

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-151700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN A SQUALL LINE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER EXTREME SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

also this:

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ELONGATED LOW FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST TEXAS AND WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW TRAILING EAST TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GREATER THAN 60F DEWPOINT READINGS WERE ACROSS ALL
OF LOUISIANA...SOUTH ARKANSAS AND EAST TEXAS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED A TROUGH...QUITE LOW IN LATITUDES...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO OLE MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED DARKENING ASSOCIATED
WITH VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS
TO CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSAIC ARE RADARS SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA..

SHORT RANGE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOME DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN
THE INSTABILITY FIELDS. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST.
ETA...AVN AND NGM SHOWS A SHORTENING OF WAVELENGTH AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET AT
850MB BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF TO SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z AND OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z SUN. AT
250MB...A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 90 KNOTS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO
TENNESSEE VALLEY EVOLVES INTO DIVERGING FLOW WITH THE BEST QV
DIVERGENCE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA 18Z TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE INSTABILITY FIELDS. AVN
CREATES A CONVECTIVE UNSTABLE ATM BY 12Z ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ETA AND NGM ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE KEEPING THE REAL
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE POOLING THE EXISTING CONVECTION AND MODELS SHOW PW
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...SLOWING PUSHING EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI ZONES FROM 06 TO
12Z SUNDAY. WITH SPEED SHEAR PRESENT AND JET CONFIGURATION...A
SQUALL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THERE IS AN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
THE LAKE FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL AND NEAR CATEGORICAL
POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THERMAL TROUGH AT 850MB LAGS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING...WILL SLOW CLEARING. DRY AND CLEAR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...NEXT VIGOROUS...MUCH MORE SPRINGLIKE SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE PLAINS FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AND AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...STRONG STORMS FRIDAY.