STORM2K

Well things are about to change drastically come the weekend and into next week possibly from the Plains eastward to the NE!!!!!

As adverstised in my forecast update last night the models are holding ground if not building even colder air to arrive by the weekend in the Plains and then farther east into the Midwest, Great Lakes and the NE by the middle and end of next week which alot of these places may either see thier first frost and or first freeze of the season and even a few may even get a taste of the white stuff possibly!.......................This btw was supported by both the GFS and the Euro from the 12z,18z and the 00z runs!.............The GFS itself has been hinting at this for a week now which is amazing in itself!!!!!!!!!!
Below is the ooz GFS 8 day which im very much looking forward to (IF) this pans out !!!!! Do i hear lake effect????????? :o

BTW for all you snowhounds this is a very good setup for the winter as the snow pack surely will begin to spread across Canada and grow as the fall wears on such as the case was last year!!!!!!!!! More snow up there equalls better shots of Artic air down here in the USA!!!! Where is that HM when he is needed??????? LOL

KOW... thanks for posting. Our local NWS keeps saying the GFS has a typical autumnal cold bias and ignores it. What are some of the other models saying to compare/contrast with the GFS?

Hmmm..........Now tonights GFS says the same as well as it has all day which btw the Euro agrees with as well????

Have a look!!!!!!!!!!! Hmmmmm Now what could that be im seeing in my neck of the woods if this verifies??????????

You may get your first flakes KOW!!! :o

Our locals are progging low to mid 50's for Houston on Tuesday and Wednesday next week if this verifies. That is way below normal for us!!! I am beginning to see signs of a possible early/cold winter here with trees already beginning to drop their leaves. This normally doesn't happen till sometime in October. I am looking forward to the temps staying down at nor just below seasonal normals for a while!! It would be a welcome change.

What about me? Don't mean to make myself seem like an idiot, but when I see your maps, I see a pretty map with some lines on it.....doesn't tell me much! Am I gonna need to dig out the jackets next week?

StormCrazyIowan wrote:What about me? Don't mean to make myself seem like an idiot, but when I see your maps, I see a pretty map with some lines on it.....doesn't tell me much! Am I gonna need to dig out the jackets next week?

Yes, you will need to dig out the jackets unless temps in the 20's and 30's aren't coll or cold to you. Soesn't look like any frozen precip on the map for you though, at least not the one shown here.

vbhoutex wrote:

StormCrazyIowan wrote:What about me? Don't mean to make myself seem like an idiot, but when I see your maps, I see a pretty map with some lines on it.....doesn't tell me much! Am I gonna need to dig out the jackets next week?

Yes, you will need to dig out the jackets unless temps in the 20's and 30's aren't coll or cold to you. Soesn't look like any frozen precip on the map for you though, at least not the one shown here.

This is totally off topic, but your avatar trips me out everytime I look at it!

vbhoutex wrote:Our locals are progging low to mid 50's for Houston on Tuesday and Wednesday next week if this verifies. That is way below normal for us!!! I am beginning to see signs of a possible early/cold winter here with trees already beginning to drop their leaves. This normally doesn't happen till sometime in October. I am looking forward to the temps staying down at nor just below seasonal normals for a while!! It would be a welcome change.

I can only hope for an early cold winter... I'm just dying for it *grins* I can't believe the 50's in September! WWWWWOOOOOOHOOOOO!

I'm all for the ice and sleet and snow and all that nasty winter weather that we never really get much of. *grins*

Early cold = fewer bugs and lower power bill!! I'm looking forward to it already!! :bgbounce:

Brrrr! Yeah, that is plenty cold to me!!!

20 degrees? Thats swimsuit weather

Seriously, I hope we do get some lake effect out of this...we were supposed to get some lake effect rain a few nights ago, I'm not sure if we did or not, but an early start to the season wouldn't be too bad

Swimsuit weather?! Yeah....for an ESKIMO!!

StormCrazyIowan wrote:What about me? Don't mean to make myself seem like an idiot, but when I see your maps, I see a pretty map with some lines on it.....doesn't tell me much! Am I gonna need to dig out the jackets next week?

This is the GFS Forecast Model.

It WILL get cold, but not as cold as the GFS is saying. I think this is being way overblown here. There will not be any s--- in the great lakes region, even if the GFS were to pan out, we just arent at that point yet, 850 Temps and 1000MB thickness may be there but the surface temps just arent down there yet(however it will only be a matter of a small amount of time before this occurs). The EC looks similar to the GFS in its 850 Temp plots. But 850 MB is pretty far up, and there is nothing at the surface yet to create the type of cold needed for s---. Were gonna need a bit more snowcover before we start to see REAL cold air at the surface. The PV needs to sink further south as well. I think in the Great lakes region nightime lows would be in the mid to upper 30's but the daytime highs are still going to be lower to mid 50's(possibly some upper 40's on some spots). The PV is forecast to be quite far north so this will elminate the extreme cold needed for s--- across the Great Lakes. HOWEVER, there is going to be an H5 s/w swinging across the border just north of the Great lakes, this will carry with it some very cold air, and a chance of some light precip. So i think southerh Canada has a chance at some flurries, the northern stream of the Jet will carry this into northern New England. NOW, the H5 s/w will push the colder air into New England thus allowing for this energy to combine with cold air there. This may mean that flurries or light s--- affects portions of Northern New England. At this point ill say higher elevations only but if this trough really swings in some colder air then it may be over lower elevations as well. Pretty interesting setup, had this been a few months later wed be looking at a great clipper with some very very cold air. This s/w is quite interesting as a building Omega ridge will help it to dig slightly, GFS went bazerk and dug it down into OH(thus giving them s---), however it REALLY builds that omega ridge, that IMO is overblown, and the current indicies do not support such a ridge.

Agreed.. No snow in the lakes.. MAYBE some flakes in northen Minnesota..

AS for Iowa.. lows in the upper 30's for the weekend/beginning of the week and low to mid 40's to end it..

Well looking at thue runs sence 00z i would have to agree that the lakes will see at most some flakes.............Maybe farther west towards the Dakotas and montana will get a bit more as it seems now that the trough wants to set up a little bit further to the west...................Nice thought while it lasted............(Kinda why i said (IF) it verifies above)......................Oh well let the snow pack begin in Canada!!!!!!!!!!........BTW its supposed to get a bit chilly here tonight with temps down to the upper30s possible!!!