STORM2K

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SW & COASTAL
MS.SOUTH CNTL.EAST CNTL & SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA THROUGH TONIGHT.

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SW TX WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST OVER EAST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON & NW LOUISIANA
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SE TX WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER WEST LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON & NORTH
MS TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE TO CREATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SO. MS & SE LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME AREAS NO. OF BATON ROUGE & EXTREME SW MS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. IN ADDITION.A
SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCURRED FROM SAINT CHARLES TO
SAINT BERNARD PARISHES & OVER PORTIONS OF SAINT TAMMANY PARISH.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST.AN ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 WILL CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUN-OFF
AND FLOODING IN RAIN SOAKED AREAS. ISOLATED STORM TOTALS
THROUGH SAT MORNING COULD REACH 6 TO 8 INCHES.

SOME RIVERS ACROSS SE LOUISIANA & SO. MS ARE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OR ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE
REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR EACH RIVER BASIN FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

We also have watches now out....for all of you who didnt predict this or lived through a flood up north here....its not any fun at all. First we get 30-40" snow on the ground, then warmth into the 40s and 50s (1996 was devastating) into the 60s and then a few inches of rain spells disaster for rivers downstream here. Ice jams and bends in tributaries are at great risk...I will watch my state and locales for updates and make a thread if need be on this upcoming dangerous situation. Stay Tuned.

Rob-TheStormChaser wrote:We also have watches now out....for all of you who didnt predict this or lived through a flood up north here....its not any fun at all. First we get 30-40" snow on the ground, then warmth into the 40s and 50s (1996 was devastating) into the 60s and then a few inches of rain spells disaster for rivers downstream here. Ice jams and bends in tributaries are at great risk...I will watch my state and locales for updates and make a thread if need be on this upcoming dangerous situation. Stay Tuned.

I saw the potential days out ... and posted on this...the low is continued to be progged to still go west of the region ... thus rain/warmer air.

However, there's one thing that I think will have a chance to save you from devastating flooding this go-around ... [but still 6 hours of heavy precip (of up to 2" of liquid still isn't good for dense snowpack)].

THE DRYSLOT ... I'm seeing the best forcing/RH/Lift occurring ahead of the warm front ... as the warm front blasts northward, I believe this will shut down the heavy precip rather quickly (drizzle/light rain) ... followed by the cold front passage.

As the low continues pulling into NY, wrap-around snows should then occur ...

Confidence was higher in the forecast yesterday ... medium today ...
Stay vigilant and keep us informed Rob ... here's to hopefully that DRYSLOT!...