Florida weekend and extended weather outlook
Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2003 5:34 pm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
#2003-32 Published Friday 02/21/03 At 11:00 AM EST
We saw another very warm day on Thursday 02/20/03 with maximim temperatures
reaching the low to mid 80's across the peninsula. The warmest reading was 89
deg. in Kenneth City, with 85 deg. here in SW Plant City and also Avon Park and
St. Leo.
With the warm front across the northern peninsula and a strong S-SW wind today
temperatures should surge into the 80's again, with a 30-40% chance of
thunderstorms. NWS Tampa Bay said it best for thunderstorm probabilities today.
....KTBW SOUNDING RATHER UNSTABLE THIS MORNING...WITH CAPE VALUE NEAR 1500 AND
LI AT -4.3. MODIFIED SOUNDING FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 AND DWPTS IN THE U60S
LEAVES LI'S AT -6 AND HEALTHY CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON CONVERGENCE AS A
TRIGGER.....
Looking at the next three day period of Friday-Sunday 02/21-23/03, we are
looking at another intense El Nino enhanced winter storm system tracking across
the deep south and then up the U.S. East Coast. Unfortunately all dynamics are
in place for the largest severe weather outbreak across the deep south since
November 2002. F5 finger of God tonado potential! Much of the same region that
saw 20-50" of snowfall last weekend will see snowfall melting heavy rainfall and
big time flood potential. With another round of bitterly cold Arctic air getting
involved, some areas will see an ice storm and even more snow.
Here in Florida the best chance of severe weather be be across the north during
the day Saturday, as best dynamics will coincide with the added instability from
the Sun. The bulk of the heavy weather will be across the central and southern
peninsula late Saturday into early Sunday, reducing severe weather chances.
However severe weather is still a distinct possibility for the peninsula.
Much cooler weather returns for much of the state on Monday 02/24/03.
Looking down the road during the next 10 days we should see a very changeable
period of weather with both warm and cold spells and bouts of heavy
precipitation and severe weather, as the teleconnection pattern signals of El
Nino and it's enhanced subtropical jet stream (-SOI) tanks at it's lowest value
of the current event, in conjunction with a return to a negative North Atlantic
Oscillation (-NAO), which promotes colder low pressure troughing in the eastern
U.S.
Best rain chances for Florida during the period will be on or around Friday
02/28/03, Sunday 03/02/03 and Tuesday 03/04/03.
Thomas Giella
Plant City, FL, USA
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
#2003-32 Published Friday 02/21/03 At 11:00 AM EST
We saw another very warm day on Thursday 02/20/03 with maximim temperatures
reaching the low to mid 80's across the peninsula. The warmest reading was 89
deg. in Kenneth City, with 85 deg. here in SW Plant City and also Avon Park and
St. Leo.
With the warm front across the northern peninsula and a strong S-SW wind today
temperatures should surge into the 80's again, with a 30-40% chance of
thunderstorms. NWS Tampa Bay said it best for thunderstorm probabilities today.
....KTBW SOUNDING RATHER UNSTABLE THIS MORNING...WITH CAPE VALUE NEAR 1500 AND
LI AT -4.3. MODIFIED SOUNDING FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 AND DWPTS IN THE U60S
LEAVES LI'S AT -6 AND HEALTHY CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON CONVERGENCE AS A
TRIGGER.....
Looking at the next three day period of Friday-Sunday 02/21-23/03, we are
looking at another intense El Nino enhanced winter storm system tracking across
the deep south and then up the U.S. East Coast. Unfortunately all dynamics are
in place for the largest severe weather outbreak across the deep south since
November 2002. F5 finger of God tonado potential! Much of the same region that
saw 20-50" of snowfall last weekend will see snowfall melting heavy rainfall and
big time flood potential. With another round of bitterly cold Arctic air getting
involved, some areas will see an ice storm and even more snow.
Here in Florida the best chance of severe weather be be across the north during
the day Saturday, as best dynamics will coincide with the added instability from
the Sun. The bulk of the heavy weather will be across the central and southern
peninsula late Saturday into early Sunday, reducing severe weather chances.
However severe weather is still a distinct possibility for the peninsula.
Much cooler weather returns for much of the state on Monday 02/24/03.
Looking down the road during the next 10 days we should see a very changeable
period of weather with both warm and cold spells and bouts of heavy
precipitation and severe weather, as the teleconnection pattern signals of El
Nino and it's enhanced subtropical jet stream (-SOI) tanks at it's lowest value
of the current event, in conjunction with a return to a negative North Atlantic
Oscillation (-NAO), which promotes colder low pressure troughing in the eastern
U.S.
Best rain chances for Florida during the period will be on or around Friday
02/28/03, Sunday 03/02/03 and Tuesday 03/04/03.
Thomas Giella
Plant City, FL, USA
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm