STORM2K

Good afternoon evenyone. A storm system will deepen rapidly over the Great Lakes today through tonight. Winds will increase, severe weather threat is there and so is heavy snow. Th biggest threat with this thing is undoubtably going to be damaging winds. Get ready to lose power fromthe Ohio Valley eastward into the mid atlantic, northeast, and the great lakes region. Trees down, powerlines down, trees down on powerlines is likely with this type of wind situation we're talking about.

The current situation right now are as follows. First strong storms are developing in southern Indiana into extreme western Kentucky along a frontal boundary moving in from the west. Strong jet stream energy is plowing in underneath the base of this developing low pressure system, which is centered over eastern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin. Snow is showing up on radar in southern Minnesota. Minneapolis St Paul could see some snow today into this evening. Meanwhile severe weather is a good possibility later today in the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes region. The main threats will be strong damaging wind, some significant and the potential for tornadoes also. Tornadoes that do form should be isolated, but locally strong potentially. The greatest threat for severe weather will occur across southeast lower Michigan, Ohio, eastern Indiana, western Pennsylvania and into western new york state also. Topping that off, numerous gale warnings are in effect for the great lakes and the northeast seaboard. Storm warnings are in effect for Lakes Erie and Ontario with sustained winds of 60 mph possible Thursday across the eastern lakes. Two things this wind will do, #1 supply colder air into the great lakes and northeast and #2 increase the lake effect snow machine for Thursday and even into Friday too. 6-12 inches is a good possibility in the lake effect favored areas. Lots going on for sure and folks in the great lakes, northeast, mid atlantic and ohio valley should get ready to lose power tonight through early Friday. Wind is the big story here and you'll know it. Stay safe everyone!!

Jim

I was surprised this morning to see the potential for severe weather in the Midwest today. This storm seems to have cranked up pretty quickly. Tomorrow should be pretty fun around here!

Guess who got hosed from this system........

Jacki was HOSED!!!

Just to the north of you though they're going to get buried under snow!

CITY OF HAMILTON
12:43 PM EST WEDNESDAY 12 NOVEMBER 2003
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
CITY OF HAMILTON AND NIAGARA REGION ISSUED
THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATER TODAY.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.


A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM OVER WISCONSIN IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS FROM THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LINE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS TO THE NIAGARA REGION. WIDESPREAD STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN.

So far...Toronto has not been included in this weather watch. Hamilton lies just to the south west.

-justin-

Jim - agreed that the weather will be wild and windy tonight and tomorrow. A mild evening with a strong t-storm possible late at night, followed by very winder and colder for tomorrow. We could definitely see gusts past 40 MPH and I would expect some places will lose power.

Des Moines just got a gust to 56 mph. Could see 50-60 mph gusts in east and central Iowa today into this evening. Stay tuned and stay safe!!!

Jim

Stay safe everyone and hold on to your hats.

Yeah, it is most certainly windy- but uh, that's it, and I am NOT satisfied!!

Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, and very strong winds look like a good bet here tonight...and then cold and very gusty winds tomorrow and tomorrow night with the chance of flurries or snow showers!

Almost a given that everything will be witnessed from this storm in southeast and east central Pennsylvania. Cannot rule out a snow shower or a snow squall later tomorrow in this area. The air aloft is colder. But also lots of wind energy. So any showers of snow will definitely be accompanied by even stronger wind gusts in the 50-60mph range. Just the gradient alone will cause 45-50 mph gusts. Even the potential is there along the shores of the great lakes, particularly erie and ontario of wind gusts over hurricane force tomorrow with the gradient. Hurricane force gusts could be seen today and this evening in those same areas along a strong cold front. Isolated tornadoes are possible along with the damaging winds along the cold front.

Jim

COOL!!!!! I'll keep all of you updated!

Right now it's just foggy, and rather warm.

National Weather Service, Taunton, Massachusetts Forecast:

* * * High Wind Warning for Thursday and Thursday evening * * *

Tonight. Patchy fog. Locally dense at times until 3 am. Showers. Developing late in the evening. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds 5 mph increasing toward daybreak to 15 to 20 mph.

Thursday. Showers likely. Tapering off to sprinkles late in the afternoon. Patchy fog early in the morning. Very windy and turning cooler. 9 am highs in the lower 50s. Then temperatures falling into the mid 40s. West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 60 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday night. Very windy. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts to around 60 mph until around midnight.

Friday. Very windy. Partly sunny and colder. Highs in the lower 40s.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
ISSUED BY NWS UPTON NY (interesting)
330 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

...HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THE LOW WILL ALSO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-130331-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
330 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM THURSDAY TO 12 AM EST
FRIDAY...

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER...OR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BLOW UNSECURED OBJECTS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND
LAWN FURNITURE AROUND. SMALL TREES AND POWER LINES COULD ALSO BE
DOWNED...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES.

IN ADDITION...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND
ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAINTAIN A FIRM GRIP
ON THE STEERING WHEEL AND KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES.

$$


boldface = Area I used to live

I actually started predicting this on the winter forum under "record high pressure-late week storm "thread on Sunday. Most of my expertise comes from keeping a diary on Maryland weather since 1965. There is a pattern of when having a barometric pressure above 30.60, pretty rare and Sunday's 30.80 was extraordinary, for mother nature to try to balance things back. Thus any lows within aproximately 5 days tend to grow into a much larger proportion than normal. That is why I predicted surface pressures as low as 29.20 and wind gusts over 50 back on Sunday. It seems to be falling into place now and I think areas just north of NYC will see gusts to 70.

WEATHER53 wrote:I actually started predicting this on the winter forum under "record high pressure-late week storm "thread on Sunday. Most of my expertise comes from keeping a diary on Maryland weather since 1965. There is a pattern of when having a barometric pressure above 30.60, pretty rare and Sunday's 30.80 was extraordinary, for mother nature to try to balance things back. Thus any lows within aproximately 5 days tend to grow into a much larger proportion than normal. That is why I predicted surface pressures as low as 29.20 and wind gusts over 50 back on Sunday. It seems to be falling into place now and I think areas just north of NYC will see gusts to 70.

I remember that thread, WEATHER53. Nice call. Right now the lowest pressure sits just NE of Michigan UP region at 994 mb (29.35") ...

SF

Very good call 53...........I have a thread about this as well in the other forum which i pulled up........